SCECpedia - User contributions [en]

Publishing UCERF3-ETAS Event Reports

2026-04-08T20:48:03Z

Bhatthal: /* Publishing the UCERF3-ETAS Forecast */

After successfully running a UCERF3-ETAS simulation and generating our plots, the generated UCERF3-ETAS forecast results can be published as part of a larger SCEC Event page. This page outlines the process by which results are published.

Refer to [[UCERF3-ETAS Measurements]] for detailed instructions on how to run simulations and generate plots across HPC systems. The following examples allow us to take our generated results directly from the HPC system on which the computation occurs, although results can be published from any system with an internet connection.

== Creating and Updating SCEC Event Pages ==
SCEC Event Pages detail earthquake events. For a given mainshock, recorded magnitude, time and location, and aftershock sequences are recorded. Identify a given event from its USGS ID and use this to generate an event on the SCEC.org website at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate. (See Figure 1).

After generating an event page, it should be populated and available to view from the SCEC Event Pages list. This page is not yet published and isn't available to the public. Navigate to the "View" link to view the event page. (See Figure 2).
Under the Table of Contents, you shouldn't see a "UCERF3-ETAS Forecast" yet, but after generating your results and making them available, you will be able to update this event page by selecting the "Regenerate Page with Latest Data" button. (See Figure 3)

[[File:SCEC Event Page Generator.png|400px|thumb|Fig 1. SCEC Event Page Generator available at scec.org]]
[[File:Malibu EQ.png|400px|thumb|Fig 2. SCEC Event Page for M4 earthquake near Malibu, CA]]
[[File:UCERF3-ETAS Forecast in Event Page.png|400px|thumb|Fig 3. UCERF3-ETAS Forecast as seen on the Event Page]]

For any errors generating SCEC Event Pages, refer to [[SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting]].

== Git Troubleshooting ==

Pushing your changes upstream requires you to have an added SSH key on Frontera to allow you to make changes with your GitHub account. You must also use a GitHub account that is authorized to push changes directly to the ucerf3-etas-results/master branch.

You can request edit permissions to the repository owner, Akash Bhatthal <[mailto:bhatthal@usc.edu bhattha@usc.edu]>

Consider the following brief instructions on getting set up with SSH.

1. Check if you already have an SSH key generated. 

<code>ls ~/.ssh/id_rsa.pub</code>

If not, then generate one with <code>ssh-keygen</code>. It's possible you may have a non-RSA public key. Just check for any file ending in <code>.pub</code>.

2. Copy the contents of this public SSH key to your clipboard. 
You can either select it directly from your Terminal, or copy the file over SSH.

3. Add as an authenticated key on your GitHub account. 

Go to GitHub Settings -> SSH and GPG Keys -> New SSH key
and paste the public key you copied. It should start with <code>ssh-rsa</code>.
Be careful to not use the private key, the public key is from the file
ending in <code>.pub</code>.

4. If you cloned the repository with HTTPS instead of SSH, then you need to update your remote accordingly. 

<code>git remote set-url origin git@github.com:(your_user_name)/ucerf3-etas-results.git</code>

5. If your account has sufficient permissions, you should be able to push directly upstream to ucerf3-etas-results/master.

== Publishing the UCERF3-ETAS Forecast ==

Generate your UCERF3-ETAS forecast for a given earthquake event following instructions available at [[UCERF3-ETAS Measurements]].
Our generated results are pushed to a private GitHub repository (SCECcode/ucerf3-etas-results) that is directly read by the SCEC Event Page. You must be granted permission to view and contribute to this repository to continue publishing UCERF3-ETAS results for use in SCEC Event Pages.

1) Clone this repository to your home directory with the following command:

<code>cd $HOME && git clone git@github.com:SCECcode/ucerf3-etas-results.git</code>

2) Get scripts

We can't directly copy results into this repository. The data is prepared using the u3etas_jar_wrapper shell script. You should already have such scripts downloaded and made available to execute by adding to your PATH. If not, clone the repository.

<code>git clone https://github.com/opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher.git</code>

3) Ensure that you have selected the correct Event ID and directories. See the following section for an explanation of the parameters used.

* Set environment variables in bash config
* Ensure you're on an interactive node
* Update your bash config with:

<code>
module load sdsc

module load cpu/0.15.4

module use /cm/shared/apps/spack/0.21.2/cpu/a/share/spack/lmod/linux-rocky8-x86_64/Core

module load openjdk/17.0.8.1_1

export PROJFS=/expanse/lustre/projects/usc143/$USER

export ETAS_LAUNCHER=$PROJFS/ucerf3/ucerf3-etas-launcher

export ETAS_SIM_DIR=$PROJFS/ucerf3/u3etas_sim

export ETAS_MEM_GB=5

export MPJ_HOME=$PROJFS/mpj-express

export PATH=$ETAS_LAUNCHER/parallel/slurm_sbin/:$ETAS_LAUNCHER/sbin/:$MPJ_HOME/bin:$PATH
</code>

4) Connect to an interactive node
<code>srun --partition=debug --pty --account=usc143 --nodes=1 --ntasks-per-node=4 --mem=32G -t 00:30:00 --wait=0 --export=ALL /bin/bash</code>

5) Assuming you have reserved an interactive node with sufficient memory, ensure that you have sufficient memory for execution on this node.
Set <code>ETAS_MEM_GB=32</code>.
* export ETAS_MEM_GB=32
This doesn't have to be in your bash config, just execute directly. Adjust memory needed if you encounter an OutOfMemoryError during execution.

6) Run ComCatReportPageGen
The following example has the ucerf3-etas-results repository cloned in our home directory on Expanse. Execution updates the local repository, after which you can <code> git push</code> the changes upstream given sufficient permissions. Recall that such changes don't update an already generated SCEC Event page, in which case the page will have to be regenerated.

<code>
u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen --event-id ci41075584 \

--min-mag 0d --radius 50 --output-parent-dir /home1/10177/bhatthal/ucerf3-etas-results \

--etas-dir $ETAS_SIM_DIR/frontera-comcat-malibu-m3.9-n14-s100000 \

--etas-output-dir /home1/10177/bhatthal/ucerf3-etas-results/ucerf3-etas
</code>

You will need to update the above command with the relevant absolute paths on your system. If you encounter issues with the specified outputDir, remove the conflicting "outputDir" value in your simulation's `config.json` and try again.

If you are unable to identify the event-id, try passing with the shortened parameter and ensuring these is no space, i.e. `-eci41075584`.

7) Commit the changes in `ucerf3-etas-results` and push upstream to origin/master.
See the Git Troubleshooting section if you're unable to do this.

== ComcatReportPageGen Usage ==
The [https://github.com/opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher/blob/master/sbin/u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh] shell script is used to execute any Java application in the provided OpenSHA Jar. In this case, we're executing the [https://github.com/opensha/opensha/blob/master/src/main/java/org/opensha/commons/data/comcat/plot/ComcatReportPageGen.java ComcatReportPageGen] application.

<code>
usage: ComcatReportPageGen [-?] [-d <arg>] -e <arg> [-eod <arg>] [-etas <arg>] [-m <arg>] [-o <arg>] [-opd <arg>] [-r <arg>]
-?,--help Display this message
-d,--days-before <arg> Number of days of events before the mainshock to fetch (default: 3)
-e,--event-id <arg> ComCat event id, e.g. 'ci39126079'
-eod,--etas-output-dir <arg> If supplied, ETAS only results will also be written to <path>/<event-id>
-etas,--etas-dir <arg> Path to a UCERF3-ETAS simulation directory
-m,--min-mag <arg> Minimum magnitude of events to fetch (default: 0.0)
-o,--output-dir <arg> Output dirctory. Must supply either this or --output-parent-dir
-opd,--output-parent-dir <arg> Output parent dirctory. The directory name will be generated automatically from the
event name, date, and magnitude. Must supply either this or --output-dir
-r,--radius <arg> Search radius around mainshock for aftershocks. Default is the greater of 10.0 km and
twice the Wells & Coppersmith (1994) median rupture length for the mainshock magnitude

</code>

In our example, we specify the absolute path to where we cloned the ucerf3-etas-results repository, as well as the absolute path to a UCERF3-ETAS results directory within the ucerf3-etas-results repository. Our results are written into two folders to allow us to filter by either date or Event ID.

If running on Expanse, copy any plots from scratch into your own account as we can't run in someone else's folder. You can create a tarball and copy the whole folder into your account. The same logic should apply to any other HPC system. Ensure you execute the script on an interactive node, not on the head node.

== Workflow Automation and Potential Challenges ==
This process of getting our UCERF3-ETAS forecasts into SCEC Event Pages could be automated for jobs run on Quakeworx.

We face the following challenges in doing so:
* Not all Quakeworx users should have permission to publish results for SCEC Event Pages
* If there's an existing result, does the latest run overwrite? New UI for selecting result to use?
* We would have to start tagging commits to track overwritten events and update the web service to checkout accordingly
* SCEC Event Page regeneration would need to be triggered from Quakeworx.

Handling of permissions for a Quakeworx GitHub account, structural changes for storing and reading results from the event-reports repository, and implementing a "Write to Event Page" boolean field on job submission is all feasible. Implementing a UI to retroactively change the selected forecast and trigger page regeneration would require further investigation into the capabilities of the Quakeworx framework and if there's an API for externally triggering the generator. These changes may improve the user experience and make publishing UCERF3-ETAS forecasts easier without requiring knowledge of a Linux terminal.

== Quakeworx ==
Results can be published even when generated on Quakeworx, not just directly via the command-line.
Results are stored inside the Quakeworx development (qwxdev) scratch directory, but each user has a unique ID where their jobs are written to. Below is a list of known Drupaluid IDs for users who frequently run UCERF3-ETAS on Quakeworx.
* Phil Maechling: 6
* Fabio Silva: 7
* Akash Bhatthal: 20
* Scott Callaghan: 22

For example, a job Phil ran on Quakeworx labelled "DeepSprings_EQ" would be found at <code>/expanse/lustre/scratch/qwxdev/temp_project/qwx1/users/drupaluid_6/jobs/DeepSprings_EQ/</code>.

In order to run the ComcatReportPageGen, you should copy this event from scratch into your own home directory. Here you can make changes to the config.json configuration as necessary and execute the generator (See step 6) with an updated etas-dir.

SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting

2026-04-02T22:35:20Z

Bhatthal:

This page outlines all encountered bugs with the process of generating SCEC Event Pages. Each bug should have a header with a succinct summary and the date it was first encountered. Bugs that have been resolved will have "'''(Resolved)'''" appended to its header.

== Apr 2 2026 - Failure to generate "M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)" '''(Resolved)'''==
Failed to generate a SCEC Event Page for the “M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)” event on the event generation page at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate.

[[Image:error-generating-m4.6-boulder-creek-20260402.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Error generating Boulder Creek event'''

The bug was identified in the ComcatReportPageGen tool. Merging pager images fails due to mismatched image widths. Updating the bounds resolves the bug. (See [https://github.com/opensha/opensha/pull/223 #223] for details)

After testing locally with Docker eclipse-temurin:17-jdk using the OpenSHA fat jar on opensha/opensha:master at commit c2e5c3da8fa74d9cc46b73d9f0d6d9671b34285c, we are able to generate the page successfully. The fat jar in repository opensha-event-reports is updated accordingly and changes are pulled on the server for production.

[[Image:boulder-creek-generated-20260402.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 2. Boulder Creek event page generated successfully'''

== Nov 4 2025 - Failure to generate "M3.1 - 10km NNE of Yucaipa, CA 10/23/2025 (ci41113519)" '''(Resolved)''' ==
Failed to generate a SCEC Event Page for the “M3.1 - 10km NNE of Yucaipa, CA 10/23/2025 (ci41113519)” event on the event generation page at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate.
Ambiguous error, “error generating page” and simply “error” using the “Enter USGS ID to Generate Page” and “Recent Earthquakes” Generate buttons. (See Fig 1.)
Bug is only encountered with this specific event. Able to generate an event page for 10/23/2205 Woodside, but not 10/23/2025 Yucaipa.

[[Image:Yucaipa-error-msg.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Error generating Yucaipa event'''

Chrome Developer Tools allow for analysis of the JSON error message. (See Fig. 2)

[[Image:Yucaipa-err-json-response.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 2. Resolve ambiguous error message with Chrome Developer Tools'''

A match for the error detail (See Fig 3.) is found in the <code>earthquake_event_page.php</code> script at function <code>scec_earthquake_event_page_generate($event_id)</code>.

[[Image:Yucaipa-eq-event-page-php-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 3. Error detail match found in code'''

This error is returned due to a non-zero return value from the execution of <code>update_eq_event_report.sh</code>. Upon analysis of Docker logs we see this failure is in the Docker execution of <code>generate_report.sh</code> (See Fig. 4)

[[Image:Yucaipa-update-eq-event-report-sh-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 4. update_eq_event_report.sh invokes Docker Java 8 for generate_report.sh'''

<code>generate_report.sh</code> invokes the Java OpenSHA <code>ComcatReportPageGen</code> CLT with appropriate parameters.

See logs below:

<code>
Array(
[0] => cd /data/scectmp
[1] => run docker
[2] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/feed/v1.0/detail/ci41113519.geojson
[3] => Count of events received = 1
[4] => WC 1994 Radius: 0.08038963
[5] => Reverting to min radius of 10.0
[6] => Mainshock is a M3.08
[7] => Hypocenter: 34.11083, -116.98350, 13.42000
[8] => Place name: 10 km NNE of Yucaipa, CA
[9] => Fetching 3.0 days of foreshocks
[10] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?endtime=2025-10-24T03:12:37.610Z&format=geojson&limit=20000&maxdepth=30.000&maxlatitude=34.20077&maxlongitude=-116.87488&mindepth=-10.000&minlatitude=34.02090&minlongitude=-117.09212&minmagnitude=0.000&orderby=time&starttime=2025-10-21T03:12:37.610Z
[11] => Count of events received = 0
[12] => Count of events after filtering = 0
[13] => Total number of events returned = 0
[14] => Found 0 foreshocks, maxMag=-Infinity
[15] => Fetching aftershocks
[16] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?endtime=2025-11-05T17:03:42.497Z&format=geojson&limit=20000&maxdepth=30.000&maxlatitude=34.20077&maxlongitude=-116.87488&mindepth=-10.000&minlatitude=34.02090&minlongitude=-117.09212&minmagnitude=0.000&orderby=time&starttime=2025-10-24T03:12:37.610Z
[17] => Count of events received = 4
[18] => Count of events after filtering = 2
[19] => Events filtered due to conversion = 0, location = 1, id = 1
[20] => Total number of events returned = 2
[21] => Found 2 aftershocks, maxMag=1.2
[22] => Output dir: /reports/ci41113519
[23] => URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41113519
[24] => Shakemap image: https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/shakemap/41113519ci/ci/1761362118906/download/intensity.jpg
[25] => DYFI image: https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/dyfi/ci41113519/us/1761801878221/ci41113519_ciim.jpg
[26] => Downloading https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/shakemap/41113519ci/ci/1761362118906/download/intensity.jpg to /reports/ci41113519/resources/ci41113519_shakemap.jpg
[27] => DONE
[28] => Downloading https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/dyfi/ci41113519/us/1761801878221/ci41113519_ciim.jpg to /reports/ci41113519/resources/ci41113519_dyfi.jpg
[29] => DONE
[30] => Loading FM from cached file: FM3_1.xml
[31] => Loading FM from cached file: FM3_2.xml
[32] => java.lang.IllegalStateException: Min data mag is non-finite: NaN
[33] => at com.google.common.base.Preconditions.checkState(Preconditions.java:588)
[34] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatDataPlotter.plotMagTimeFunc(ComcatDataPlotter.java:873)
[35] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen.generateReport(ComcatReportPageGen.java:384)
[36] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen.main(ComcatReportPageGen.java:1418)
[37] => quitting with error)</code>

Here is a snippet of <code>ComcatDataPlotter</code>, where the error is thrown. (See Fig. 5)

[[Image:Comcatdataplotter-fail-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 5. Failed Precondition in ComcatDataPlotter'''

It’s resolving NaN, because minDataMag is set to infinity. We failed to find any of mainshock.getMag, foreshocksFunc.getMinY, or aftershocksFunc.getMinY

For this specific event, we’re failing to retrieve any foreshocks, aftershocks or even the mainshock. Evidently there was a mainshock, so this must either be an error in our code parsing the geodata or a malformed geojson was provided.

The mainshock was retrieved successfully. We didn’t find any foreshocks 3 days before the mainshock, and we’ve observed 2 aftershocks in total between the date of the mainshock (2025-10-24) and the date of the attempted event page generation (2025-11-05).

Clearly we have this data so our minDataMag should be finite.

After debugging ComcatReportPageGen locally, I’ve determined the issue.

aftershocksFunc.getMinY() is returning NaN. The minimum of NaN and infinity evaluates to NaN. Later on, even though mainshock.getMag() evaluates to 3.08, Math.min(NaN, 3.08) resolves NaN. I don’t believe we should see NaN summary statistics for our aftershocksFunc, but adding checks for this allows pages to build.

See the modified code that we now use on the Central SCEC Server for page generation: https://github.com/abhatthal/opensha-fork/tree/bugfix/comcat-report-page-gen/nonfinite-min-data-mag
This code will be merged into the OpenSHA codebase with a PR after review. Changes incurred at merge will require a new Jar to be built and deployed to the Central SCEC Server.

[[Image:Yucapia-comcatdataplotter-fix.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 6. Add NaN checks in ComcatDataPlotter'''

After we deployed the new Jar, we updated the docker image invoked in <code>update_eq_event_report.sh</code> from <code>openjdk:8</code> to <code>eclipse-temurin:11-jdk</code>.
This executes our updated <code>ComcatReportPageGen</code> successfully.

The generated event page for Yucaipa is available at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41113519.

== Related Entries ==
* [[Publishing_UCERF3-ETAS_Event_Reports]]

File:Boulder-creek-generated-20260402.png

2026-04-02T22:34:02Z

Bhatthal:

SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting

2026-04-02T21:06:11Z

Bhatthal: /* Apr 2 2026 - Failure to generate "M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)" (Resolved) */

This page outlines all encountered bugs with the process of generating SCEC Event Pages. Each bug should have a header with a succinct summary and the date it was first encountered. Bugs that have been resolved will have "'''(Resolved)'''" appended to its header.

== Apr 2 2026 - Failure to generate "M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)" '''(Resolved)'''==
Failed to generate a SCEC Event Page for the “M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)” event on the event generation page at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate.

[[Image:error-generating-m4.6-boulder-creek-20260402.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Error generating Boulder Creek event'''

The bug was identified in the ComcatReportPageGen tool. Merging pager images fails due to mismatched image widths. Updating the bounds resolves the bug. (See [https://github.com/opensha/opensha/pull/223 #223] for details)

After testing locally with Docker eclipse-temurin:17-jdk using the OpenSHA fat jar on opensha/opensha:master at commit c2e5c3da8fa74d9cc46b73d9f0d6d9671b34285c, we are able to generate the page successfully. The fat jar in repository opensha-event-reports is updated accordingly and changes are pulled on the server for production.

== Nov 4 2025 - Failure to generate "M3.1 - 10km NNE of Yucaipa, CA 10/23/2025 (ci41113519)" '''(Resolved)''' ==
Failed to generate a SCEC Event Page for the “M3.1 - 10km NNE of Yucaipa, CA 10/23/2025 (ci41113519)” event on the event generation page at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate.
Ambiguous error, “error generating page” and simply “error” using the “Enter USGS ID to Generate Page” and “Recent Earthquakes” Generate buttons. (See Fig 1.)
Bug is only encountered with this specific event. Able to generate an event page for 10/23/2205 Woodside, but not 10/23/2025 Yucaipa.

[[Image:Yucaipa-error-msg.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Error generating Yucaipa event'''

Chrome Developer Tools allow for analysis of the JSON error message. (See Fig. 2)

[[Image:Yucaipa-err-json-response.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 2. Resolve ambiguous error message with Chrome Developer Tools'''

A match for the error detail (See Fig 3.) is found in the <code>earthquake_event_page.php</code> script at function <code>scec_earthquake_event_page_generate($event_id)</code>.

[[Image:Yucaipa-eq-event-page-php-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 3. Error detail match found in code'''

This error is returned due to a non-zero return value from the execution of <code>update_eq_event_report.sh</code>. Upon analysis of Docker logs we see this failure is in the Docker execution of <code>generate_report.sh</code> (See Fig. 4)

[[Image:Yucaipa-update-eq-event-report-sh-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 4. update_eq_event_report.sh invokes Docker Java 8 for generate_report.sh'''

<code>generate_report.sh</code> invokes the Java OpenSHA <code>ComcatReportPageGen</code> CLT with appropriate parameters.

See logs below:

<code>
Array(
[0] => cd /data/scectmp
[1] => run docker
[2] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/feed/v1.0/detail/ci41113519.geojson
[3] => Count of events received = 1
[4] => WC 1994 Radius: 0.08038963
[5] => Reverting to min radius of 10.0
[6] => Mainshock is a M3.08
[7] => Hypocenter: 34.11083, -116.98350, 13.42000
[8] => Place name: 10 km NNE of Yucaipa, CA
[9] => Fetching 3.0 days of foreshocks
[10] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?endtime=2025-10-24T03:12:37.610Z&format=geojson&limit=20000&maxdepth=30.000&maxlatitude=34.20077&maxlongitude=-116.87488&mindepth=-10.000&minlatitude=34.02090&minlongitude=-117.09212&minmagnitude=0.000&orderby=time&starttime=2025-10-21T03:12:37.610Z
[11] => Count of events received = 0
[12] => Count of events after filtering = 0
[13] => Total number of events returned = 0
[14] => Found 0 foreshocks, maxMag=-Infinity
[15] => Fetching aftershocks
[16] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?endtime=2025-11-05T17:03:42.497Z&format=geojson&limit=20000&maxdepth=30.000&maxlatitude=34.20077&maxlongitude=-116.87488&mindepth=-10.000&minlatitude=34.02090&minlongitude=-117.09212&minmagnitude=0.000&orderby=time&starttime=2025-10-24T03:12:37.610Z
[17] => Count of events received = 4
[18] => Count of events after filtering = 2
[19] => Events filtered due to conversion = 0, location = 1, id = 1
[20] => Total number of events returned = 2
[21] => Found 2 aftershocks, maxMag=1.2
[22] => Output dir: /reports/ci41113519
[23] => URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41113519
[24] => Shakemap image: https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/shakemap/41113519ci/ci/1761362118906/download/intensity.jpg
[25] => DYFI image: https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/dyfi/ci41113519/us/1761801878221/ci41113519_ciim.jpg
[26] => Downloading https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/shakemap/41113519ci/ci/1761362118906/download/intensity.jpg to /reports/ci41113519/resources/ci41113519_shakemap.jpg
[27] => DONE
[28] => Downloading https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/dyfi/ci41113519/us/1761801878221/ci41113519_ciim.jpg to /reports/ci41113519/resources/ci41113519_dyfi.jpg
[29] => DONE
[30] => Loading FM from cached file: FM3_1.xml
[31] => Loading FM from cached file: FM3_2.xml
[32] => java.lang.IllegalStateException: Min data mag is non-finite: NaN
[33] => at com.google.common.base.Preconditions.checkState(Preconditions.java:588)
[34] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatDataPlotter.plotMagTimeFunc(ComcatDataPlotter.java:873)
[35] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen.generateReport(ComcatReportPageGen.java:384)
[36] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen.main(ComcatReportPageGen.java:1418)
[37] => quitting with error)</code>

Here is a snippet of <code>ComcatDataPlotter</code>, where the error is thrown. (See Fig. 5)

[[Image:Comcatdataplotter-fail-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 5. Failed Precondition in ComcatDataPlotter'''

It’s resolving NaN, because minDataMag is set to infinity. We failed to find any of mainshock.getMag, foreshocksFunc.getMinY, or aftershocksFunc.getMinY

For this specific event, we’re failing to retrieve any foreshocks, aftershocks or even the mainshock. Evidently there was a mainshock, so this must either be an error in our code parsing the geodata or a malformed geojson was provided.

The mainshock was retrieved successfully. We didn’t find any foreshocks 3 days before the mainshock, and we’ve observed 2 aftershocks in total between the date of the mainshock (2025-10-24) and the date of the attempted event page generation (2025-11-05).

Clearly we have this data so our minDataMag should be finite.

After debugging ComcatReportPageGen locally, I’ve determined the issue.

aftershocksFunc.getMinY() is returning NaN. The minimum of NaN and infinity evaluates to NaN. Later on, even though mainshock.getMag() evaluates to 3.08, Math.min(NaN, 3.08) resolves NaN. I don’t believe we should see NaN summary statistics for our aftershocksFunc, but adding checks for this allows pages to build.

See the modified code that we now use on the Central SCEC Server for page generation: https://github.com/abhatthal/opensha-fork/tree/bugfix/comcat-report-page-gen/nonfinite-min-data-mag
This code will be merged into the OpenSHA codebase with a PR after review. Changes incurred at merge will require a new Jar to be built and deployed to the Central SCEC Server.

[[Image:Yucapia-comcatdataplotter-fix.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 6. Add NaN checks in ComcatDataPlotter'''

After we deployed the new Jar, we updated the docker image invoked in <code>update_eq_event_report.sh</code> from <code>openjdk:8</code> to <code>eclipse-temurin:11-jdk</code>.
This executes our updated <code>ComcatReportPageGen</code> successfully.

The generated event page for Yucaipa is available at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41113519.

== Related Entries ==
* [[Publishing_UCERF3-ETAS_Event_Reports]]

SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting

2026-04-02T20:57:33Z

Bhatthal:

This page outlines all encountered bugs with the process of generating SCEC Event Pages. Each bug should have a header with a succinct summary and the date it was first encountered. Bugs that have been resolved will have "'''(Resolved)'''" appended to its header.

== Apr 2 2026 - Failure to generate "M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)" '''(Resolved)'''==
Failed to generate a SCEC Event Page for the “M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)” event on the event generation page at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate.

[[Image:error-generating-m4.6-boulder-creek-20260402.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Error generating Boulder Creek event'''

The bug was identified in the ComcatReportPageGen tool. Merging pager images fails due to mismatched image widths. Updating the bounds resolves the bug. (See [https://github.com/opensha/opensha/pull/223 #223] for details)

After testing locally with Docker eclipse-temurin:17-jdk using the OpenSHA fat jar on opensha/opensha:master at commit c2e5c3da8fa74d9cc46b73d9f0d6d9671b34285c, we are able to generate the page successfully. The fat jar in repository opensha-event-reports is updated accordingly and changes are pulled on the server for production.

TODO: Test if the prod deployment generates the event page successfully.

== Nov 4 2025 - Failure to generate "M3.1 - 10km NNE of Yucaipa, CA 10/23/2025 (ci41113519)" '''(Resolved)''' ==
Failed to generate a SCEC Event Page for the “M3.1 - 10km NNE of Yucaipa, CA 10/23/2025 (ci41113519)” event on the event generation page at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate.
Ambiguous error, “error generating page” and simply “error” using the “Enter USGS ID to Generate Page” and “Recent Earthquakes” Generate buttons. (See Fig 1.)
Bug is only encountered with this specific event. Able to generate an event page for 10/23/2205 Woodside, but not 10/23/2025 Yucaipa.

[[Image:Yucaipa-error-msg.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Error generating Yucaipa event'''

Chrome Developer Tools allow for analysis of the JSON error message. (See Fig. 2)

[[Image:Yucaipa-err-json-response.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 2. Resolve ambiguous error message with Chrome Developer Tools'''

A match for the error detail (See Fig 3.) is found in the <code>earthquake_event_page.php</code> script at function <code>scec_earthquake_event_page_generate($event_id)</code>.

[[Image:Yucaipa-eq-event-page-php-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 3. Error detail match found in code'''

This error is returned due to a non-zero return value from the execution of <code>update_eq_event_report.sh</code>. Upon analysis of Docker logs we see this failure is in the Docker execution of <code>generate_report.sh</code> (See Fig. 4)

[[Image:Yucaipa-update-eq-event-report-sh-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 4. update_eq_event_report.sh invokes Docker Java 8 for generate_report.sh'''

<code>generate_report.sh</code> invokes the Java OpenSHA <code>ComcatReportPageGen</code> CLT with appropriate parameters.

See logs below:

<code>
Array(
[0] => cd /data/scectmp
[1] => run docker
[2] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/feed/v1.0/detail/ci41113519.geojson
[3] => Count of events received = 1
[4] => WC 1994 Radius: 0.08038963
[5] => Reverting to min radius of 10.0
[6] => Mainshock is a M3.08
[7] => Hypocenter: 34.11083, -116.98350, 13.42000
[8] => Place name: 10 km NNE of Yucaipa, CA
[9] => Fetching 3.0 days of foreshocks
[10] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?endtime=2025-10-24T03:12:37.610Z&format=geojson&limit=20000&maxdepth=30.000&maxlatitude=34.20077&maxlongitude=-116.87488&mindepth=-10.000&minlatitude=34.02090&minlongitude=-117.09212&minmagnitude=0.000&orderby=time&starttime=2025-10-21T03:12:37.610Z
[11] => Count of events received = 0
[12] => Count of events after filtering = 0
[13] => Total number of events returned = 0
[14] => Found 0 foreshocks, maxMag=-Infinity
[15] => Fetching aftershocks
[16] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?endtime=2025-11-05T17:03:42.497Z&format=geojson&limit=20000&maxdepth=30.000&maxlatitude=34.20077&maxlongitude=-116.87488&mindepth=-10.000&minlatitude=34.02090&minlongitude=-117.09212&minmagnitude=0.000&orderby=time&starttime=2025-10-24T03:12:37.610Z
[17] => Count of events received = 4
[18] => Count of events after filtering = 2
[19] => Events filtered due to conversion = 0, location = 1, id = 1
[20] => Total number of events returned = 2
[21] => Found 2 aftershocks, maxMag=1.2
[22] => Output dir: /reports/ci41113519
[23] => URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41113519
[24] => Shakemap image: https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/shakemap/41113519ci/ci/1761362118906/download/intensity.jpg
[25] => DYFI image: https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/dyfi/ci41113519/us/1761801878221/ci41113519_ciim.jpg
[26] => Downloading https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/shakemap/41113519ci/ci/1761362118906/download/intensity.jpg to /reports/ci41113519/resources/ci41113519_shakemap.jpg
[27] => DONE
[28] => Downloading https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/dyfi/ci41113519/us/1761801878221/ci41113519_ciim.jpg to /reports/ci41113519/resources/ci41113519_dyfi.jpg
[29] => DONE
[30] => Loading FM from cached file: FM3_1.xml
[31] => Loading FM from cached file: FM3_2.xml
[32] => java.lang.IllegalStateException: Min data mag is non-finite: NaN
[33] => at com.google.common.base.Preconditions.checkState(Preconditions.java:588)
[34] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatDataPlotter.plotMagTimeFunc(ComcatDataPlotter.java:873)
[35] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen.generateReport(ComcatReportPageGen.java:384)
[36] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen.main(ComcatReportPageGen.java:1418)
[37] => quitting with error)</code>

Here is a snippet of <code>ComcatDataPlotter</code>, where the error is thrown. (See Fig. 5)

[[Image:Comcatdataplotter-fail-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 5. Failed Precondition in ComcatDataPlotter'''

It’s resolving NaN, because minDataMag is set to infinity. We failed to find any of mainshock.getMag, foreshocksFunc.getMinY, or aftershocksFunc.getMinY

For this specific event, we’re failing to retrieve any foreshocks, aftershocks or even the mainshock. Evidently there was a mainshock, so this must either be an error in our code parsing the geodata or a malformed geojson was provided.

The mainshock was retrieved successfully. We didn’t find any foreshocks 3 days before the mainshock, and we’ve observed 2 aftershocks in total between the date of the mainshock (2025-10-24) and the date of the attempted event page generation (2025-11-05).

Clearly we have this data so our minDataMag should be finite.

After debugging ComcatReportPageGen locally, I’ve determined the issue.

aftershocksFunc.getMinY() is returning NaN. The minimum of NaN and infinity evaluates to NaN. Later on, even though mainshock.getMag() evaluates to 3.08, Math.min(NaN, 3.08) resolves NaN. I don’t believe we should see NaN summary statistics for our aftershocksFunc, but adding checks for this allows pages to build.

See the modified code that we now use on the Central SCEC Server for page generation: https://github.com/abhatthal/opensha-fork/tree/bugfix/comcat-report-page-gen/nonfinite-min-data-mag
This code will be merged into the OpenSHA codebase with a PR after review. Changes incurred at merge will require a new Jar to be built and deployed to the Central SCEC Server.

[[Image:Yucapia-comcatdataplotter-fix.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 6. Add NaN checks in ComcatDataPlotter'''

After we deployed the new Jar, we updated the docker image invoked in <code>update_eq_event_report.sh</code> from <code>openjdk:8</code> to <code>eclipse-temurin:11-jdk</code>.
This executes our updated <code>ComcatReportPageGen</code> successfully.

The generated event page for Yucaipa is available at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41113519.

== Related Entries ==
* [[Publishing_UCERF3-ETAS_Event_Reports]]

SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting

2026-04-02T20:54:45Z

Bhatthal: Create entry for bug report on apr 2 2026

This page outlines all encountered bugs with the process of generating SCEC Event Pages. Each bug should have a header with a succinct summary and the date it was first encountered. Bugs that have been resolved will have "'''(Resolved)'''" appended to its header.

== Apr 2 2026 - Failure to generate "M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)" '''(Resolved)'''==
Failed to generate a SCEC Event Page for the “M4.6 - 1 km SE of Boulder Creek, CA 04/02/2026 (nc75337442)” event on the event generation page at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate.

[[Image:error-generating-m4.6-boulder-creek-20260402.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Error generating Boulder Creek event'''

The bug was identified in the ComcatReportPageGen tool. Merging pager images fails due to mismatched image widths. Updating the bounds resolves the bug. (See [https://github.com/opensha/opensha/pull/223 #223] for details)

TODO: After testing locally with Docker eclipse-temurin:17-jdk using the OpenSHA fat jar on master at commit c2e5c3da8fa74d9cc46b73d9f0d6d9671b34285c, we are able to generate the page successfully. The fat jar in repository opensha-event-reports is updated accordingly and changes are pulled on the server for production.

TODO: Test if the prod deployment generates the event page successfully.

== Nov 4 2025 - Failure to generate "M3.1 - 10km NNE of Yucaipa, CA 10/23/2025 (ci41113519)" '''(Resolved)''' ==
Failed to generate a SCEC Event Page for the “M3.1 - 10km NNE of Yucaipa, CA 10/23/2025 (ci41113519)” event on the event generation page at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate.
Ambiguous error, “error generating page” and simply “error” using the “Enter USGS ID to Generate Page” and “Recent Earthquakes” Generate buttons. (See Fig 1.)
Bug is only encountered with this specific event. Able to generate an event page for 10/23/2205 Woodside, but not 10/23/2025 Yucaipa.

[[Image:Yucaipa-error-msg.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Error generating Yucaipa event'''

Chrome Developer Tools allow for analysis of the JSON error message. (See Fig. 2)

[[Image:Yucaipa-err-json-response.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 2. Resolve ambiguous error message with Chrome Developer Tools'''

A match for the error detail (See Fig 3.) is found in the <code>earthquake_event_page.php</code> script at function <code>scec_earthquake_event_page_generate($event_id)</code>.

[[Image:Yucaipa-eq-event-page-php-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 3. Error detail match found in code'''

This error is returned due to a non-zero return value from the execution of <code>update_eq_event_report.sh</code>. Upon analysis of Docker logs we see this failure is in the Docker execution of <code>generate_report.sh</code> (See Fig. 4)

[[Image:Yucaipa-update-eq-event-report-sh-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 4. update_eq_event_report.sh invokes Docker Java 8 for generate_report.sh'''

<code>generate_report.sh</code> invokes the Java OpenSHA <code>ComcatReportPageGen</code> CLT with appropriate parameters.

See logs below:

<code>
Array(
[0] => cd /data/scectmp
[1] => run docker
[2] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/feed/v1.0/detail/ci41113519.geojson
[3] => Count of events received = 1
[4] => WC 1994 Radius: 0.08038963
[5] => Reverting to min radius of 10.0
[6] => Mainshock is a M3.08
[7] => Hypocenter: 34.11083, -116.98350, 13.42000
[8] => Place name: 10 km NNE of Yucaipa, CA
[9] => Fetching 3.0 days of foreshocks
[10] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?endtime=2025-10-24T03:12:37.610Z&format=geojson&limit=20000&maxdepth=30.000&maxlatitude=34.20077&maxlongitude=-116.87488&mindepth=-10.000&minlatitude=34.02090&minlongitude=-117.09212&minmagnitude=0.000&orderby=time&starttime=2025-10-21T03:12:37.610Z
[11] => Count of events received = 0
[12] => Count of events after filtering = 0
[13] => Total number of events returned = 0
[14] => Found 0 foreshocks, maxMag=-Infinity
[15] => Fetching aftershocks
[16] => https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?endtime=2025-11-05T17:03:42.497Z&format=geojson&limit=20000&maxdepth=30.000&maxlatitude=34.20077&maxlongitude=-116.87488&mindepth=-10.000&minlatitude=34.02090&minlongitude=-117.09212&minmagnitude=0.000&orderby=time&starttime=2025-10-24T03:12:37.610Z
[17] => Count of events received = 4
[18] => Count of events after filtering = 2
[19] => Events filtered due to conversion = 0, location = 1, id = 1
[20] => Total number of events returned = 2
[21] => Found 2 aftershocks, maxMag=1.2
[22] => Output dir: /reports/ci41113519
[23] => URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41113519
[24] => Shakemap image: https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/shakemap/41113519ci/ci/1761362118906/download/intensity.jpg
[25] => DYFI image: https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/dyfi/ci41113519/us/1761801878221/ci41113519_ciim.jpg
[26] => Downloading https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/shakemap/41113519ci/ci/1761362118906/download/intensity.jpg to /reports/ci41113519/resources/ci41113519_shakemap.jpg
[27] => DONE
[28] => Downloading https:// earthquake.usgs.gov/realtime/product/dyfi/ci41113519/us/1761801878221/ci41113519_ciim.jpg to /reports/ci41113519/resources/ci41113519_dyfi.jpg
[29] => DONE
[30] => Loading FM from cached file: FM3_1.xml
[31] => Loading FM from cached file: FM3_2.xml
[32] => java.lang.IllegalStateException: Min data mag is non-finite: NaN
[33] => at com.google.common.base.Preconditions.checkState(Preconditions.java:588)
[34] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatDataPlotter.plotMagTimeFunc(ComcatDataPlotter.java:873)
[35] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen.generateReport(ComcatReportPageGen.java:384)
[36] => at org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen.main(ComcatReportPageGen.java:1418)
[37] => quitting with error)</code>

Here is a snippet of <code>ComcatDataPlotter</code>, where the error is thrown. (See Fig. 5)

[[Image:Comcatdataplotter-fail-snippet.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 5. Failed Precondition in ComcatDataPlotter'''

It’s resolving NaN, because minDataMag is set to infinity. We failed to find any of mainshock.getMag, foreshocksFunc.getMinY, or aftershocksFunc.getMinY

For this specific event, we’re failing to retrieve any foreshocks, aftershocks or even the mainshock. Evidently there was a mainshock, so this must either be an error in our code parsing the geodata or a malformed geojson was provided.

The mainshock was retrieved successfully. We didn’t find any foreshocks 3 days before the mainshock, and we’ve observed 2 aftershocks in total between the date of the mainshock (2025-10-24) and the date of the attempted event page generation (2025-11-05).

Clearly we have this data so our minDataMag should be finite.

After debugging ComcatReportPageGen locally, I’ve determined the issue.

aftershocksFunc.getMinY() is returning NaN. The minimum of NaN and infinity evaluates to NaN. Later on, even though mainshock.getMag() evaluates to 3.08, Math.min(NaN, 3.08) resolves NaN. I don’t believe we should see NaN summary statistics for our aftershocksFunc, but adding checks for this allows pages to build.

See the modified code that we now use on the Central SCEC Server for page generation: https://github.com/abhatthal/opensha-fork/tree/bugfix/comcat-report-page-gen/nonfinite-min-data-mag
This code will be merged into the OpenSHA codebase with a PR after review. Changes incurred at merge will require a new Jar to be built and deployed to the Central SCEC Server.

[[Image:Yucapia-comcatdataplotter-fix.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 6. Add NaN checks in ComcatDataPlotter'''

After we deployed the new Jar, we updated the docker image invoked in <code>update_eq_event_report.sh</code> from <code>openjdk:8</code> to <code>eclipse-temurin:11-jdk</code>.
This executes our updated <code>ComcatReportPageGen</code> successfully.

The generated event page for Yucaipa is available at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41113519.

== Related Entries ==
* [[Publishing_UCERF3-ETAS_Event_Reports]]

2025-11-16T21:49:26Z

Bhatthal:

File:Comcatdataplotter-fail-snippet.png

2025-11-16T21:47:23Z

Bhatthal:

File:Yucaipa-update-eq-event-report-sh-snippet.png

2025-11-16T21:43:07Z

Bhatthal:

File:Yucaipa-eq-event-page-php-snippet.png

2025-11-16T21:36:55Z

Bhatthal:

Publishing UCERF3-ETAS Event Reports

2025-11-16T21:32:13Z

Bhatthal: Add link to SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting

After successfully running a UCERF3-ETAS simulation and generating our plots, the generated UCERF3-ETAS forecast results can be published as part of a larger SCEC Event page. This page outlines the process by which results are published.

Refer to [[UCERF3-ETAS Measurements]] for detailed instructions on how to run simulations and generate plots across HPC systems. The following examples allow us to take our generated results directly from the HPC system on which the computation occurs, although results can be published from any system with an internet connection.

== Creating and Updating SCEC Event Pages ==
SCEC Event Pages detail earthquake events. For a given mainshock, recorded magnitude, time and location, and aftershock sequences are recorded. Identify a given event from its USGS ID and use this to generate an event on the SCEC.org website at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate. (See Figure 1).

After generating an event page, it should be populated and available to view from the SCEC Event Pages list. This page is not yet published and isn't available to the public. Navigate to the "View" link to view the event page. (See Figure 2).
Under the Table of Contents, you shouldn't see a "UCERF3-ETAS Forecast" yet, but after generating your results and making them available, you will be able to update this event page by selecting the "Regenerate Page with Latest Data" button. (See Figure 3)

[[File:SCEC Event Page Generator.png|400px|thumb|Fig 1. SCEC Event Page Generator available at scec.org]]
[[File:Malibu EQ.png|400px|thumb|Fig 2. SCEC Event Page for M4 earthquake near Malibu, CA]]
[[File:UCERF3-ETAS Forecast in Event Page.png|400px|thumb|Fig 3. UCERF3-ETAS Forecast as seen on the Event Page]]

For any errors generating SCEC Event Pages, refer to [[SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting]].

== Git Troubleshooting ==

Pushing your changes upstream requires you to have an added SSH key on Frontera to allow you to make changes with your GitHub account. You must also use a GitHub account that is authorized to push changes directly to the ucerf3-etas-results/master branch.

You can request edit permissions to the repository owner, Akash Bhatthal <[mailto:bhatthal@usc.edu bhattha@usc.edu]>

Consider the following brief instructions on getting set up with SSH.

1. Check if you already have an SSH key generated. 

<code>ls ~/.ssh/id_rsa.pub</code>

If not, then generate one with <code>ssh-keygen</code>. It's possible you may have a non-RSA public key. Just check for any file ending in <code>.pub</code>.

2. Copy the contents of this public SSH key to your clipboard. 
You can either select it directly from your Terminal, or copy the file over SSH.

3. Add as an authenticated key on your GitHub account. 

Go to GitHub Settings -> SSH and GPG Keys -> New SSH key
and paste the public key you copied. It should start with <code>ssh-rsa</code>.
Be careful to not use the private key, the public key is from the file
ending in <code>.pub</code>.

4. If you cloned the repository with HTTPS instead of SSH, then you need to update your remote accordingly. 

<code>git remote set-url origin git@github.com:(your_user_name)/ucerf3-etas-results.git</code>

5. If your account has sufficient permissions, you should be able to push directly upstream to ucerf3-etas-results/master.

== Publishing the UCERF3-ETAS Forecast ==

Generate your UCERF3-ETAS forecast for a given earthquake event following instructions available at [[UCERF3-ETAS Measurements]].
Our generated results are pushed to a private GitHub repository (SCECcode/ucerf3-etas-results) that is directly read by the SCEC Event Page. You must be granted permission to view and contribute to this repository to continue publishing UCERF3-ETAS results for use in SCEC Event Pages.

1) Clone this repository to your home directory with the following command:

<code>cd $HOME && git clone git@github.com:SCECcode/ucerf3-etas-results.git</code>

2) Get scripts

We can't directly copy results into this repository. The data is prepared using the u3etas_jar_wrapper shell script. You should already have such scripts downloaded and made available to execute by adding to your PATH. If not, clone the repository.

<code>git clone https://github.com/opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher.git</code>

3) Ensure that you have selected the correct Event ID and directories. See the following section for an explanation of the parameters used.

# Set environment variables in bash config
* Ensure you're on an interactive node:
* Update your bash config with:
<code>
module load cpu/0.15.4

module load openjdk/11.0.2

export ETAS_JAR_DISABLE_UPDATE=1

ETAS_LAUNCHER=/expanse/lustre/projects/usc143/qwxdev/apps/expanse/rocky8.8/ucerf3-etas/069e27e/ucerf3-etas-launcher

export PATH=$ETAS_LAUNCHER/sbin:$PATH
</code>

4) Connect to an interactive node
<code>srun --partition=debug --pty --account=usc143 --nodes=1 --ntasks-per-node=4 --mem=16G -t 00:30:00 --wait=0 --export=ALL /bin/bash</code>

5) Assuming you have reserved an interactive node with sufficient memory, ensure that you have sufficient memory for execution on this node.
Set <code>ETAS_MEM_GB=32</code>.
* export ETAS_MEM_GB=32
This doesn't have to be in your bash config, just execute directly. Adjust memory needed if you encounter an OutOfMemoryError during execution.

6) Run ComCatReportPageGen
The following example has the ucerf3-etas-results repository cloned in our home directory on Expanse. Execution updates the local repository, after which you can <code> git push</code> the changes upstream given sufficient permissions. Recall that such changes don't update an already generated SCEC Event page, in which case the page will have to be regenerated.

<code>
u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen --event-id ci41075584 \

--min-mag 0d --radius 50 --output-parent-dir /home1/10177/bhatthal/ucerf3-etas-results \

--etas-dir $ETAS_SIM_DIR/frontera-comcat-malibu-m3.9-n14-s100000 \

--etas-output-dir /home1/10177/bhatthal/ucerf3-etas-results/ucerf3-etas
</code>

You will need to update the above command with the relevant absolute paths on your system. If you encounter issues with the specified outputDir, remove the conflicting "outputDir" value in your simulation's `config.json` and try again.

If you are unable to identify the event-id, try passing with the shortened parameter and ensuring these is no space, i.e. `-eci41075584`.

7) Commit the changes in `ucerf3-etas-results` and push upstream to origin/master.
See the Git Troubleshooting section if you're unable to do this.

== ComcatReportPageGen Usage ==
The [https://github.com/opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher/blob/master/sbin/u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh] shell script is used to execute any Java application in the provided OpenSHA Jar. In this case, we're executing the [https://github.com/opensha/opensha/blob/master/src/main/java/org/opensha/commons/data/comcat/plot/ComcatReportPageGen.java ComcatReportPageGen] application.

<code>
usage: ComcatReportPageGen [-?] [-d <arg>] -e <arg> [-eod <arg>] [-etas <arg>] [-m <arg>] [-o <arg>] [-opd <arg>] [-r <arg>]
-?,--help Display this message
-d,--days-before <arg> Number of days of events before the mainshock to fetch (default: 3)
-e,--event-id <arg> ComCat event id, e.g. 'ci39126079'
-eod,--etas-output-dir <arg> If supplied, ETAS only results will also be written to <path>/<event-id>
-etas,--etas-dir <arg> Path to a UCERF3-ETAS simulation directory
-m,--min-mag <arg> Minimum magnitude of events to fetch (default: 0.0)
-o,--output-dir <arg> Output dirctory. Must supply either this or --output-parent-dir
-opd,--output-parent-dir <arg> Output parent dirctory. The directory name will be generated automatically from the
event name, date, and magnitude. Must supply either this or --output-dir
-r,--radius <arg> Search radius around mainshock for aftershocks. Default is the greater of 10.0 km and
twice the Wells & Coppersmith (1994) median rupture length for the mainshock magnitude

</code>

In our example, we specify the absolute path to where we cloned the ucerf3-etas-results repository, as well as the absolute path to a UCERF3-ETAS results directory within the ucerf3-etas-results repository. Our results are written into two folders to allow us to filter by either date or Event ID.

If running on Expanse, copy any plots from scratch into your own account as we can't run in someone else's folder. You can create a tarball and copy the whole folder into your account. The same logic should apply to any other HPC system. Ensure you execute the script on an interactive node, not on the head node.

== Workflow Automation and Potential Challenges ==
This process of getting our UCERF3-ETAS forecasts into SCEC Event Pages could be automated for jobs run on Quakeworx.

We face the following challenges in doing so:
* Not all Quakeworx users should have permission to publish results for SCEC Event Pages
* If there's an existing result, does the latest run overwrite? New UI for selecting result to use?
* We would have to start tagging commits to track overwritten events and update the web service to checkout accordingly
* SCEC Event Page regeneration would need to be triggered from Quakeworx.

Handling of permissions for a Quakeworx GitHub account, structural changes for storing and reading results from the event-reports repository, and implementing a "Write to Event Page" boolean field on job submission is all feasible. Implementing a UI to retroactively change the selected forecast and trigger page regeneration would require further investigation into the capabilities of the Quakeworx framework and if there's an API for externally triggering the generator. These changes may improve the user experience and make publishing UCERF3-ETAS forecasts easier without requiring knowledge of a Linux terminal.

== Quakeworx ==
Results can be published even when generated on Quakeworx, not just directly via the command-line.
Results are stored inside the Quakeworx development (qwxdev) scratch directory, but each user has a unique ID where their jobs are written to. Below is a list of known Drupaluid IDs for users who frequently run UCERF3-ETAS on Quakeworx.
* Phil Maechling: 6
* Fabio Silva: 7
* Akash Bhatthal: 20
* Scott Callaghan: 22

For example, a job Phil ran on Quakeworx labelled "DeepSprings_EQ" would be found at <code>/expanse/lustre/scratch/qwxdev/temp_project/qwx1/users/drupaluid_6/jobs/DeepSprings_EQ/</code>.

In order to run the ComcatReportPageGen, you should copy this event from scratch into your own home directory. Here you can make changes to the config.json configuration as necessary and execute the generator (See step 6) with an updated etas-dir.

SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting

2025-11-16T18:18:58Z

Bhatthal: Create troubleshooting entry

File:Yucaipa-err-json-response.png

2025-11-16T18:14:17Z

Bhatthal:

File:Yucaipa-error-msg.png

2025-11-16T18:11:23Z

Bhatthal:

Main Page

2025-11-16T18:01:45Z

Bhatthal: /* Current Activities */ Create entry `SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting`

[[Image:SCEC_logo-2colors_BlueRed.png|left|150px]][[Image:nsf1.jpg|right|100px]][[Image:usgs-logo-color.jpg|right|150px]]

== Community Modeling Environment (CME) ==

This is a collaborative wiki site for SCEC's Community Modeling Environment (SCEC/CME). The CME is a collaborative, interdisciplinary research group that applies advanced computer science technology to the problem of seismic hazard analysis. This SCEC community wiki is configured to support our distributed research by providing a collection point for information about SCEC scientific computing research projects.

== Collaborative Project Entries ==
The following link will take you to an alphabetically sorted list of all SCECpedia pages.
*[https://strike.scec.org/scecpedia/Special:AllPages List of All SCECpedia Pages]

[[File:pathways.png|256px|thumb|right|Fig 1: SCEC/CME computational pathways provide a scientific framework for improving seismic ground motion forecasts. The SCEC/CME Project began as an NSF information technology research (ITR) project in 2001. (Image Credit: Thomas H. Jordan) ]]

== SCEC Scientific Software ==
The following table contains links to SCEC open-source scientific software descriptions and distributions.
*[[SCEC Scientific Software]]

== Current Activities ==
* [[SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting]]
* [[Research Computing Continuity Plans]]
* [[CARC Storage Migration]]
* [[UCVM Release v25.7]]
* [[UCVM Install Stampede3]]
* [[Preferred Rupture Directivity in Hazard Curve Computations]]
* [[U3ETAS Configurations]]
* [[HPC Troubleshooting]]
* [[Software Development Practices]]
* [[Bhatthal Projects and Presentations]]
*[[Quakeworx]]
** [[PdfGen]]
**[[Quakeworx Workshop]]
**[[Mendocino_Event]]
**[[CI3144585]]
*[[CyberShake]]
**[[CyberShake_Study 24.8]]
**[[CyberShake Study 22.12]]
**[[CyberShake FAIR]]
**[[NorCal CyberShake SW4 Mesh]]
**[[SW4 Mesh Development]]
**[[NCAL Study]]
**[[CyberShake Basin Ground Motions]]
**[[Broadband CyberShake aggregate comparisons]]
*[[OpenSHA]]
**[[Beta Testing]]
**[[OpenSHA-Jupyter]]
**[[UCERF3-ETAS Measurements]]
**[[UCERF3-ETAS Documentation]]
**[[GetFile]]
*[[Publishing UCERF3-ETAS Event Reports]]
*[[SCEC VDO]]
*[[CXM Website Review]]
**[http://moho.scec.org/cvm-explorer/explorer.php Prototype CVM Explorer]
**[http://moho.scec.org/UCVM_web/web/viewer.php CVM]
**[[CTM]]
**[[CGM]]
**[[GFM]]
**[[CFM]]
**[[UCVM]]
**[http://moho.scec.org/egd-viewer/ EGD Earthquake Geology Database]
**[[UCVM on Frontier]]
**[[UCVM Basin Query Tests]]
**[[SCEC_NetCDF_CVMS]]
**[[CVM_S4_Testing]]
**[[CRESCENT CVM]]
**[[CRM_Query]]
**[[CEM How to generate tiles for leaflet basemap]]
*[[SCEC Media]]
*[[CSEP]]
**[[floatCSEP]]
**[[CSEP1 Archives]]
*[[AWP-ODC Distributions]]
*[[Scenario ShakeMaps]]
*[[Dockerized Websites]]
*[[National Cyberinfrastructure]]
*[[OLCF Summit]]
*[[Broadband Platform]]
**[[BBP Strong Ground Motion Project]]
**[[BBP_Data_Products]]
**[[BBP on Discovery]]
**[[CARC BBP Setup]]
**[[3D Broadband Platform]]
*[[Southern California Seismic Velocity Model Vertical Profiles]]
*[[Magnitude_Versus_Intensity]]
*[[Workplans]]
*[[Software Sustainability Project]]
**[[Release Planning]]
**[[Hypocenter Replacement]]
**[[Software Testing References]]
**[[Software Reproducibility]]
*[[SCEC Server Migration]]
**[[SCEC CARC Migration]]
**[[SCEC ACB Migration]]
*[[Docker Hub]]
*[[Forecast Data]]
*[[Adding iVIP Users]]
*[[SCEC RC Working Group]]
*[[SDSC Expanse]]
*[[ALCF ML Workshop]]
*[[CyberShake_BBP_Validation]]
*[[Multi-resolution Meshes]]
*[[SCEC RC Meeting 2021]]
*[[Staff Meeting Oct 2021]]
**[[Software Searches]]
**[[Open Source Software Questions]]
*[[CIG Workshop]]
*[[SCEC CyberInfrastructure White Papers (2017-2020)]]
*[[IRIS_EMC]]
*[[Software Licenses]]
*[[CyberShake Distribution]]
*[[Testing UCVM Vs Values]]
**[[Albacore CVM]]
**[[CVM Webviewer Development]]
**[[CFM Web Development]]
*[[SCEC Testing Systems]]
*[[Staff Meeting]]
*[[High-F]]
**[[HighF_2018]]
*[[Stand-up Meetings]]
*[[Software Projects]]
*[[Disk Usage]]
*[[Magnitude Versus Intensity]]
*[[CyberShake_Study_20.5]]
*[[UCVM Verification]]
*[[CSEP_Working_Group]]
**[[CSEP_Gitlab]]
**[[CSEP_Training]]
**[[CSEP_Computers]]
**[[CSEP_Results]]
**[[CSEP_Workflows]]
**[[CSEP Test Results]]
**[[CSEP]]
*[[SCEC_EarthScience_DTS_HPC]]
*[[Cyberinfrastructure Center of Excellence]]
*[[Dornsife Technology Services (DTS)]]
*[[SC19]]
*[[Open Storage Network]]
*[[Rupture_Variation_Generator_v5.4.2]]
*[[Cascadia Simulations]]
*[[Ridgecrest Simulations]]
*[https://www.scec.org/workshops/2019/computing Research Computing Meeting]
*[http://www.scec.org/research/cxm SCEC CXM Inventory]
*[[ShakeMovies]]
*[[Brawley Seismic Zone Simulations]]
*[[SVN]]
*[[Zenodo and GitHub]]
*[[Callaghan Presentations]]
*[[Maechling Presentations]]
*[[Allocation Planning]]

== Recent Activities ==
*[[Software At SCEC Responses]]
*[[Research Computing]]
*[[SSA Velocity Model Workshop 2019]]
*[[Software Workshop 2018]]
*[[Validation_Events]]
*[[Software]]
**[[Software Terms]]
*[[Transient Detection]]
*[[AGU Fall 2018]]
*[[SC18]]
*[[LA Vertical Profiles]]
*[[CVM-H 15.1 Maps]]
*[[Wills Map]]
*[[CyberShake Training]]
*[[CyberShake_Data_Access]]
*[[CyberShake Study 17.3]]
*[[Git]]
**[[Git Basics]]
**[[github API examples]]
*[[GMSV Simulation Datasets]]
*[[Blue_Waters_Project]]
**[[Blue Waters Symposium 2017]]
*[[CME_Projects]]
**[[SEISM2]]
*[[HPC Software]]
**[[Exascale Computing]]
**[[INCITE_Project]]
**[[NERSC]]
**[[Slurm]]
**[[Seismtools]]
**[[Build_Tools]]
*[[CME Software Development Group]]
**[[Scrum]]
**[[Staff]]
*[[Machine Learning]]
**[[tensorflow]]

*[[BBP Flat File Format]]
*[[BBP Validation Events]]
*[[BBP Batch Jobs]]

**[[UCVM Release Planning]]
* UCVM Tutorial Pages
**[https://github.com/sceccode/ucvm/wiki/testing UCVM Testing]
**[https://github.com/sceccode/ucvm_plotting/wiki UCVM Plotting]
**[https://github.com/sceccode/ucvm/wiki/Examples UCVM Examples]
**[[README.md Template]]
**[[UCVM Install]]
**[[Running UCVM on Discovery]]
**[[UCVM Basin Query]]
**[[UCVM on Compute Nodes]]
**[[Export XWindows to Client]]
**[[UCVM Plotting on Discovery]]
**[[UCVM Usage Notes]]
* UCVM Notes
**[[UCVM FAQ]]
**[[UCVM v25.7 with external model data directory CVM_LARGEDATA_DIR]]
**[[UCVM ucvm with sw4 using cvmsi]]
**[[UCVM create new model with ucvm2mesh]]
**[[UCVM cvmsi tapering]]
**[[UCVM sfcvm geomodelgrid]]
**[[UCVM install on Frontera]]
**[[UCVM cvmsi tapering for CyberShake Study 22.12]]
**[[UCVM cvms, cvmsi near-surface comparison]]
**[[UCVM cca/cvms5 comparing builtin-gtl vs elygtl:ely]]
**[[UCVM VS30 tree map(Thompson 2018) ]]
**[[UCVM VS30 etree map (Wills 2015) UCVM's interpolation]]
**[[UCVM z1,z2.5 for CCA06 with GTL, CVM-S4.26.M01]]
**[[UCVM 3D Viz]]
**[[UCVM svm1d]]
**[[UCVM svm1d and elygtl]]
**[[UCVM etree for Garner Valley]]
**[[UCVM elevation vs depth, model boundary]]
**[[UCVMC basin depth study, poly tech, Pomona ]]
**[[UCVMC how to plot cross_section and depth_profile]]
**[[CVM for CyberShake Study 18.8]]
**[[UCVMC How to process bin data]]
**[[UCVMC_CS17.3-H_plots]]
**[[UCVM Density Formula]]
**[[UCVM v18.5]]
**[[UCVM_Vs30]]
**[[CS173-H]]
**[[UCVM Review]]
**[[Registering CS173 into UCVM]]
**[[CVM Projection Issue Discussion]]
**[[Mesh Plotting Scripts]]
**[[ucvm2mesh-mpi]]
**[[Compare_UCVMC_to_UCVMP]]
**[[CCA06 Test Points]]
**[[Bay Area Velocity Model Z2.5 data]]

== CME Outcomes ==
*[[CME Work Areas]]
*[[Publications]]
*[[Press Coverage]]

== Recent Earthquake Information ==
An important goal of SCEC earthquake research is to develop improved seismic hazard information about future earthquakes by developing physics-based predictive models of earthquake processes and Improved seismic hazard estimates should lead to reduced seismic hazard risks to people and important societal infrastructure.
*[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ USGS Recent California Earthquakes]
*[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ USGS Recent Worldwide Earthquakes]

== CME Research Support ==
[http://www.scec.org Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)] and [http://www.scec.org/cme SCEC/CME] research is funded by [http://www.nsf.gov National Science Foundation (NSF)] Cooperative Agreements EAR-0106924 and USGS Cooperative Agreement 02HQAG0008, and NSF awards EAR- 074493, EAR-0949443, OCI-0832698, and OCI-0832698. This research is supported by an allocation of advanced computing resources provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF). Computations are performed at [http://www.sdsc.edu San Diego Supercomputer Center], and the [http://www.tacc.utexas.edu Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC)] at The University of Texas at Austin, the [http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu National Center for Supercomputer Applications (NCSA)] provide HPC resources. Computations are supported by the [http://www.usc.edu University of Southern California] Center for [http://www.usc.edu/hpc Center for High-Performance Computing (HPC)]. Our research uses HPC resources provided by the [http://www.energy.gov/ U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)] through an [http://www.science.doe.gov/ascr/incite/index.html Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE)] program allocation award. An award of computer time was provided by the INCITE program. This research uses resources of the [http://www.alcf.anl.gov/ Argonne Leadership Computing Facility] at Argonne National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC02- 06CH11357. This research also used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.

== See Also ==
Additional information about SCEC earthquake system science research is available on related SCEC web sites including:
*[http://www.scec.org/ SCEC Home Page]
*[http://scec.usc.edu/scecpedia/Special:AllPages List of All SCECpedia Pages]

== License ==
Except as otherwise noted, the contents of this site are licensed under the [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en_US Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License], and software distributions are licensed under the [https://opensource.org/ Open Source Initiative] approved licenses including BSD-3 and [http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 Apache 2.0 License]. For details, see our [[Site Policies]].
[[image:Cc3_88x31.png]]

Main Page

2025-11-16T18:00:56Z

Bhatthal: /* Current Activities */ Restructure `Publishing UCERF3-ETAS Event Reports` and `SCEC VDO` out of `OpenSHA` bulletpoint.

[[Image:SCEC_logo-2colors_BlueRed.png|left|150px]][[Image:nsf1.jpg|right|100px]][[Image:usgs-logo-color.jpg|right|150px]]

== Community Modeling Environment (CME) ==

This is a collaborative wiki site for SCEC's Community Modeling Environment (SCEC/CME). The CME is a collaborative, interdisciplinary research group that applies advanced computer science technology to the problem of seismic hazard analysis. This SCEC community wiki is configured to support our distributed research by providing a collection point for information about SCEC scientific computing research projects.

== Collaborative Project Entries ==
The following link will take you to an alphabetically sorted list of all SCECpedia pages.
*[https://strike.scec.org/scecpedia/Special:AllPages List of All SCECpedia Pages]

[[File:pathways.png|256px|thumb|right|Fig 1: SCEC/CME computational pathways provide a scientific framework for improving seismic ground motion forecasts. The SCEC/CME Project began as an NSF information technology research (ITR) project in 2001. (Image Credit: Thomas H. Jordan) ]]

== SCEC Scientific Software ==
The following table contains links to SCEC open-source scientific software descriptions and distributions.
*[[SCEC Scientific Software]]

== Current Activities ==
* [[Research Computing Continuity Plans]]
* [[CARC Storage Migration]]
* [[UCVM Release v25.7]]
* [[UCVM Install Stampede3]]
* [[Preferred Rupture Directivity in Hazard Curve Computations]]
* [[U3ETAS Configurations]]
* [[HPC Troubleshooting]]
* [[Software Development Practices]]
* [[Bhatthal Projects and Presentations]]
*[[Quakeworx]]
** [[PdfGen]]
**[[Quakeworx Workshop]]
**[[Mendocino_Event]]
**[[CI3144585]]
*[[CyberShake]]
**[[CyberShake_Study 24.8]]
**[[CyberShake Study 22.12]]
**[[CyberShake FAIR]]
**[[NorCal CyberShake SW4 Mesh]]
**[[SW4 Mesh Development]]
**[[NCAL Study]]
**[[CyberShake Basin Ground Motions]]
**[[Broadband CyberShake aggregate comparisons]]
*[[OpenSHA]]
**[[Beta Testing]]
**[[OpenSHA-Jupyter]]
**[[UCERF3-ETAS Measurements]]
**[[UCERF3-ETAS Documentation]]
**[[GetFile]]
*[[Publishing UCERF3-ETAS Event Reports]]
*[[SCEC VDO]]
*[[CXM Website Review]]
**[http://moho.scec.org/cvm-explorer/explorer.php Prototype CVM Explorer]
**[http://moho.scec.org/UCVM_web/web/viewer.php CVM]
**[[CTM]]
**[[CGM]]
**[[GFM]]
**[[CFM]]
**[[UCVM]]
**[http://moho.scec.org/egd-viewer/ EGD Earthquake Geology Database]
**[[UCVM on Frontier]]
**[[UCVM Basin Query Tests]]
**[[SCEC_NetCDF_CVMS]]
**[[CVM_S4_Testing]]
**[[CRESCENT CVM]]
**[[CRM_Query]]
**[[CEM How to generate tiles for leaflet basemap]]
*[[SCEC Media]]
*[[CSEP]]
**[[floatCSEP]]
**[[CSEP1 Archives]]
*[[AWP-ODC Distributions]]
*[[Scenario ShakeMaps]]
*[[Dockerized Websites]]
*[[National Cyberinfrastructure]]
*[[OLCF Summit]]
*[[Broadband Platform]]
**[[BBP Strong Ground Motion Project]]
**[[BBP_Data_Products]]
**[[BBP on Discovery]]
**[[CARC BBP Setup]]
**[[3D Broadband Platform]]
*[[Southern California Seismic Velocity Model Vertical Profiles]]
*[[Magnitude_Versus_Intensity]]
*[[Workplans]]
*[[Software Sustainability Project]]
**[[Release Planning]]
**[[Hypocenter Replacement]]
**[[Software Testing References]]
**[[Software Reproducibility]]
*[[SCEC Server Migration]]
**[[SCEC CARC Migration]]
**[[SCEC ACB Migration]]
*[[Docker Hub]]
*[[Forecast Data]]
*[[Adding iVIP Users]]
*[[SCEC RC Working Group]]
*[[SDSC Expanse]]
*[[ALCF ML Workshop]]
*[[CyberShake_BBP_Validation]]
*[[Multi-resolution Meshes]]
*[[SCEC RC Meeting 2021]]
*[[Staff Meeting Oct 2021]]
**[[Software Searches]]
**[[Open Source Software Questions]]
*[[CIG Workshop]]
*[[SCEC CyberInfrastructure White Papers (2017-2020)]]
*[[IRIS_EMC]]
*[[Software Licenses]]
*[[CyberShake Distribution]]
*[[Testing UCVM Vs Values]]
**[[Albacore CVM]]
**[[CVM Webviewer Development]]
**[[CFM Web Development]]
*[[SCEC Testing Systems]]
*[[Staff Meeting]]
*[[High-F]]
**[[HighF_2018]]
*[[Stand-up Meetings]]
*[[Software Projects]]
*[[Disk Usage]]
*[[Magnitude Versus Intensity]]
*[[CyberShake_Study_20.5]]
*[[UCVM Verification]]
*[[CSEP_Working_Group]]
**[[CSEP_Gitlab]]
**[[CSEP_Training]]
**[[CSEP_Computers]]
**[[CSEP_Results]]
**[[CSEP_Workflows]]
**[[CSEP Test Results]]
**[[CSEP]]
*[[SCEC_EarthScience_DTS_HPC]]
*[[Cyberinfrastructure Center of Excellence]]
*[[Dornsife Technology Services (DTS)]]
*[[SC19]]
*[[Open Storage Network]]
*[[Rupture_Variation_Generator_v5.4.2]]
*[[Cascadia Simulations]]
*[[Ridgecrest Simulations]]
*[https://www.scec.org/workshops/2019/computing Research Computing Meeting]
*[http://www.scec.org/research/cxm SCEC CXM Inventory]
*[[ShakeMovies]]
*[[Brawley Seismic Zone Simulations]]
*[[SVN]]
*[[Zenodo and GitHub]]
*[[Callaghan Presentations]]
*[[Maechling Presentations]]
*[[Allocation Planning]]

== Recent Activities ==
*[[Software At SCEC Responses]]
*[[Research Computing]]
*[[SSA Velocity Model Workshop 2019]]
*[[Software Workshop 2018]]
*[[Validation_Events]]
*[[Software]]
**[[Software Terms]]
*[[Transient Detection]]
*[[AGU Fall 2018]]
*[[SC18]]
*[[LA Vertical Profiles]]
*[[CVM-H 15.1 Maps]]
*[[Wills Map]]
*[[CyberShake Training]]
*[[CyberShake_Data_Access]]
*[[CyberShake Study 17.3]]
*[[Git]]
**[[Git Basics]]
**[[github API examples]]
*[[GMSV Simulation Datasets]]
*[[Blue_Waters_Project]]
**[[Blue Waters Symposium 2017]]
*[[CME_Projects]]
**[[SEISM2]]
*[[HPC Software]]
**[[Exascale Computing]]
**[[INCITE_Project]]
**[[NERSC]]
**[[Slurm]]
**[[Seismtools]]
**[[Build_Tools]]
*[[CME Software Development Group]]
**[[Scrum]]
**[[Staff]]
*[[Machine Learning]]
**[[tensorflow]]

*[[BBP Flat File Format]]
*[[BBP Validation Events]]
*[[BBP Batch Jobs]]

**[[UCVM Release Planning]]
* UCVM Tutorial Pages
**[https://github.com/sceccode/ucvm/wiki/testing UCVM Testing]
**[https://github.com/sceccode/ucvm_plotting/wiki UCVM Plotting]
**[https://github.com/sceccode/ucvm/wiki/Examples UCVM Examples]
**[[README.md Template]]
**[[UCVM Install]]
**[[Running UCVM on Discovery]]
**[[UCVM Basin Query]]
**[[UCVM on Compute Nodes]]
**[[Export XWindows to Client]]
**[[UCVM Plotting on Discovery]]
**[[UCVM Usage Notes]]
* UCVM Notes
**[[UCVM FAQ]]
**[[UCVM v25.7 with external model data directory CVM_LARGEDATA_DIR]]
**[[UCVM ucvm with sw4 using cvmsi]]
**[[UCVM create new model with ucvm2mesh]]
**[[UCVM cvmsi tapering]]
**[[UCVM sfcvm geomodelgrid]]
**[[UCVM install on Frontera]]
**[[UCVM cvmsi tapering for CyberShake Study 22.12]]
**[[UCVM cvms, cvmsi near-surface comparison]]
**[[UCVM cca/cvms5 comparing builtin-gtl vs elygtl:ely]]
**[[UCVM VS30 tree map(Thompson 2018) ]]
**[[UCVM VS30 etree map (Wills 2015) UCVM's interpolation]]
**[[UCVM z1,z2.5 for CCA06 with GTL, CVM-S4.26.M01]]
**[[UCVM 3D Viz]]
**[[UCVM svm1d]]
**[[UCVM svm1d and elygtl]]
**[[UCVM etree for Garner Valley]]
**[[UCVM elevation vs depth, model boundary]]
**[[UCVMC basin depth study, poly tech, Pomona ]]
**[[UCVMC how to plot cross_section and depth_profile]]
**[[CVM for CyberShake Study 18.8]]
**[[UCVMC How to process bin data]]
**[[UCVMC_CS17.3-H_plots]]
**[[UCVM Density Formula]]
**[[UCVM v18.5]]
**[[UCVM_Vs30]]
**[[CS173-H]]
**[[UCVM Review]]
**[[Registering CS173 into UCVM]]
**[[CVM Projection Issue Discussion]]
**[[Mesh Plotting Scripts]]
**[[ucvm2mesh-mpi]]
**[[Compare_UCVMC_to_UCVMP]]
**[[CCA06 Test Points]]
**[[Bay Area Velocity Model Z2.5 data]]

== CME Outcomes ==
*[[CME Work Areas]]
*[[Publications]]
*[[Press Coverage]]

== Recent Earthquake Information ==
An important goal of SCEC earthquake research is to develop improved seismic hazard information about future earthquakes by developing physics-based predictive models of earthquake processes and Improved seismic hazard estimates should lead to reduced seismic hazard risks to people and important societal infrastructure.
*[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ USGS Recent California Earthquakes]
*[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ USGS Recent Worldwide Earthquakes]

== CME Research Support ==
[http://www.scec.org Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)] and [http://www.scec.org/cme SCEC/CME] research is funded by [http://www.nsf.gov National Science Foundation (NSF)] Cooperative Agreements EAR-0106924 and USGS Cooperative Agreement 02HQAG0008, and NSF awards EAR- 074493, EAR-0949443, OCI-0832698, and OCI-0832698. This research is supported by an allocation of advanced computing resources provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF). Computations are performed at [http://www.sdsc.edu San Diego Supercomputer Center], and the [http://www.tacc.utexas.edu Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC)] at The University of Texas at Austin, the [http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu National Center for Supercomputer Applications (NCSA)] provide HPC resources. Computations are supported by the [http://www.usc.edu University of Southern California] Center for [http://www.usc.edu/hpc Center for High-Performance Computing (HPC)]. Our research uses HPC resources provided by the [http://www.energy.gov/ U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)] through an [http://www.science.doe.gov/ascr/incite/index.html Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE)] program allocation award. An award of computer time was provided by the INCITE program. This research uses resources of the [http://www.alcf.anl.gov/ Argonne Leadership Computing Facility] at Argonne National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC02- 06CH11357. This research also used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.

== See Also ==
Additional information about SCEC earthquake system science research is available on related SCEC web sites including:
*[http://www.scec.org/ SCEC Home Page]
*[http://scec.usc.edu/scecpedia/Special:AllPages List of All SCECpedia Pages]

== License ==
Except as otherwise noted, the contents of this site are licensed under the [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en_US Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License], and software distributions are licensed under the [https://opensource.org/ Open Source Initiative] approved licenses including BSD-3 and [http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 Apache 2.0 License]. For details, see our [[Site Policies]].
[[image:Cc3_88x31.png]]

GetFile

2025-11-16T17:50:57Z

Bhatthal: list of all supported hazard models and GetFile server endpoints

== OpenSHA Problem ==
Fault section data and fault system rupture sets are loaded by OpenSHA to compute earthquake rupture forecasts. The geospatial data for several models is stored directly with the OpenSHA code that operates on it. Models for seismic hazard analysis under the OpenSHA framework are becoming progressively larger. Unfortunately, there are file size constraints of 100MB on GitHub, which can't fit the new 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23).

== Current Solution ==
Smaller models can continue to be hosted on GitHub with the OpenSHA code, but UCERF3 has been moved to a server on USC campus. Currently, OpenSHA downloads the model from the ASB "cheesegrater" server. This solution is not scalable and has the potential to partially download or otherwise download a corrupted version of the UCERF3 model. These older servers are going to be decommissioned soon and we need to transition to a better long-term solution.

== Proposed Solution ==
GetFile is a more robust solution to hosting hazard models for use in OpenSHA. It will be used to download and validate the UCERF3 and NSHM23 models. It may see use in other models and several projects across SCEC that need to download and validate files, such as UCVM. Scientific models can be stored on USC CARC and downloaded via the GetFile framework. GetFile provides a sophisticated feature-set for data validation, rolling back to older model snapshots, and enabling automatic updates of the GetFile framework for seamless deployment of new features and bug fixes.

== Supported Models ==
OpenSHA hazard models are available for download using GetFile to try in sequential order:
# CARC /project2/scec_608/public/getfile and
# CARC /project/scec_608/public/getfile.
See links to access files via the Globus Connect Service at [[Hypocenter_Replacement]].
Note that /project is deprecated and may not be available soon. The first location GetFile is able to make a connection and validate metadata with MD5 checksums will be used for the duration of the GetFile lifetime for all subsequent downloads.

The following list of ERF models are supported as of writing (Nov 16 2025) in the OpenSHA v25.12.0-alpha with GetFile v25.11.0:
* branch_avgs_combined (v24.11.0)
* cached_dep100.0_depMean_rakeMean (v24.11.0)
* cached_FM3_1_dep100.0_depMean_rakeMean (v24.11.0)
* cached_FM3_2_dep100.0_depMean_rakeMean (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_ABM_Shaw09Mod_DsrUni_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_branch_averaged_full_modules (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_branch_averaged_with_logic_tree (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_branch_averaged (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_GEOL_Shaw09Mod_DsrUni_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_mean_ucerf3_sol (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_NEOK_Shaw09Mod_DsrUni_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_SpatSeisU2_branch_averaged_full_modules (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_SpatSeisU2_branch_averaged (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_branch_averaged_full_modules (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_branch_averaged (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_ZENGBB_Shaw09Mod_DsrTap_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_1_ZENGBB_Shaw09Mod_DsrUni_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_ABM_Shaw09Mod_DsrUni_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_branch_averaged_full_modules (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_branch_averaged_with_logic_tree (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_branch_averaged (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_GEOL_Shaw09Mod_DsrUni_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_mean_ucerf3_sol (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_NEOK_Shaw09Mod_DsrUni_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_SpatSeisU2_branch_averaged_full_modules (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_SpatSeisU2_branch_averaged (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_SpatSeisU3_branch_averaged_full_modules (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_SpatSeisU3_branch_averaged (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_ZENGBB_Shaw09Mod_DsrTap_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* FM3_2_ZENGBB_Shaw09Mod_DsrUni_CharConst_M5Rate7.9_MMaxOff7.6_NoFix_SpatSeisU3 (v24.11.0)
* full_logic_tree_with_gridded (v24.11.0)
* full_logic_tree (v24.11.0)
* mean_ucerf3_sol_with_mappings (v24.11.0)
* mean_ucerf3_sol (v24.11.0)
* rake_basis (v24.11.0)
* full_ucerf3_compound_sol (v24.12.0)
* WUS_branch_averaged_gridded_simplified (v25.1.0)

== Docs and Code ==
The source code and detailed usage and setup documentation: https://github.com/abhatthal/getfile

Demo applications using the GetFile library: https://github.com/abhatthal/getfile-demo

Video demonstration of downloading files with GetFile in HazardCurveApplication. [[File:Getfile-opensha-demo.mp4]]

This video demo verifies the following behavior for file versions and network status.
# no existing files / download multiple
# already up to date / don’t download
# no files + no wifi / fails with error message
# no files + wifi outage / fails with error message
# outdated files / update only outdated
# outdated files + no wifi / silently use outdated files

Publishing UCERF3-ETAS Event Reports

2025-10-16T17:24:26Z

Bhatthal: /* Quakeworx */ Add Scott's drupal id

After successfully running a UCERF3-ETAS simulation and generating our plots, the generated UCERF3-ETAS forecast results can be published as part of a larger SCEC Event page. This page outlines the process by which results are published.

Refer to [[UCERF3-ETAS Measurements]] for detailed instructions on how to run simulations and generate plots across HPC systems. The following examples allow us to take our generated results directly from the HPC system on which the computation occurs, although results can be published from any system with an internet connection.

== Creating and Updating SCEC Event Pages ==
SCEC Event Pages detail earthquake events. For a given mainshock, recorded magnitude, time and location, and aftershock sequences are recorded. Identify a given event from its USGS ID and use this to generate an event on the SCEC.org website at https://central.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate. (See Figure 1).

After generating an event page, it should be populated and available to view from the SCEC Event Pages list. This page is not yet published and isn't available to the public. Navigate to the "View" link to view the event page. (See Figure 2).
Under the Table of Contents, you shouldn't see a "UCERF3-ETAS Forecast" yet, but after generating your results and making them available, you will be able to update this event page by selecting the "Regenerate Page with Latest Data" button. (See Figure 3)

[[File:SCEC Event Page Generator.png|400px|thumb|Fig 1. SCEC Event Page Generator available at scec.org]]
[[File:Malibu EQ.png|400px|thumb|Fig 2. SCEC Event Page for M4 earthquake near Malibu, CA]]
[[File:UCERF3-ETAS Forecast in Event Page.png|400px|thumb|Fig 3. UCERF3-ETAS Forecast as seen on the Event Page]]

== Git Troubleshooting ==

Pushing your changes upstream requires you to have an added SSH key on Frontera to allow you to make changes with your GitHub account. You must also use a GitHub account that is authorized to push changes directly to the ucerf3-etas-results/master branch.

You can request edit permissions to the repository owner, Akash Bhatthal <[mailto:bhatthal@usc.edu bhattha@usc.edu]>

Consider the following brief instructions on getting set up with SSH.

1. Check if you already have an SSH key generated. 

<code>ls ~/.ssh/id_rsa.pub</code>

If not, then generate one with <code>ssh-keygen</code>. It's possible you may have a non-RSA public key. Just check for any file ending in <code>.pub</code>.

2. Copy the contents of this public SSH key to your clipboard. 
You can either select it directly from your Terminal, or copy the file over SSH.

3. Add as an authenticated key on your GitHub account. 

Go to GitHub Settings -> SSH and GPG Keys -> New SSH key
and paste the public key you copied. It should start with <code>ssh-rsa</code>.
Be careful to not use the private key, the public key is from the file
ending in <code>.pub</code>.

4. If you cloned the repository with HTTPS instead of SSH, then you need to update your remote accordingly. 

<code>git remote set-url origin git@github.com:(your_user_name)/ucerf3-etas-results.git</code>

5. If your account has sufficient permissions, you should be able to push directly upstream to ucerf3-etas-results/master.

== Publishing the UCERF3-ETAS Forecast ==

Generate your UCERF3-ETAS forecast for a given earthquake event following instructions available at [[UCERF3-ETAS Measurements]].
Our generated results are pushed to a private GitHub repository (SCECcode/ucerf3-etas-results) that is directly read by the SCEC Event Page. You must be granted permission to view and contribute to this repository to continue publishing UCERF3-ETAS results for use in SCEC Event Pages.

1) Clone this repository to your home directory with the following command:

<code>cd $HOME && git clone git@github.com:SCECcode/ucerf3-etas-results.git</code>

2) Get scripts

We can't directly copy results into this repository. The data is prepared using the u3etas_jar_wrapper shell script. You should already have such scripts downloaded and made available to execute by adding to your PATH. If not, clone the repository.

<code>git clone https://github.com/opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher.git</code>

3) Ensure that you have selected the correct Event ID and directories. See the following section for an explanation of the parameters used.

# Set environment variables in bash config
* Ensure you're on an interactive node:
* Update your bash config with:
<code>
module load cpu/0.15.4

module load openjdk/11.0.2

export ETAS_JAR_DISABLE_UPDATE=1

ETAS_LAUNCHER=/expanse/lustre/projects/usc143/qwxdev/apps/expanse/rocky8.8/ucerf3-etas/069e27e/ucerf3-etas-launcher

export PATH=$ETAS_LAUNCHER/sbin:$PATH
</code>

4) Connect to an interactive node
<code>srun --partition=debug --pty --account=usc143 --nodes=1 --ntasks-per-node=4 --mem=16G -t 00:30:00 --wait=0 --export=ALL /bin/bash</code>

5) Assuming you have reserved an interactive node with sufficient memory, ensure that you have sufficient memory for execution on this node.
Set <code>ETAS_MEM_GB=32</code>.
* export ETAS_MEM_GB=32
This doesn't have to be in your bash config, just execute directly. Adjust memory needed if you encounter an OutOfMemoryError during execution.

6) Run ComCatReportPageGen
The following example has the ucerf3-etas-results repository cloned in our home directory on Expanse. Execution updates the local repository, after which you can <code> git push</code> the changes upstream given sufficient permissions. Recall that such changes don't update an already generated SCEC Event page, in which case the page will have to be regenerated.

<code>
u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh org.opensha.commons.data.comcat.plot.ComcatReportPageGen --event-id ci41075584 \

--min-mag 0d --radius 50 --output-parent-dir /home1/10177/bhatthal/ucerf3-etas-results \

--etas-dir $ETAS_SIM_DIR/frontera-comcat-malibu-m3.9-n14-s100000 \

--etas-output-dir /home1/10177/bhatthal/ucerf3-etas-results/ucerf3-etas
</code>

You will need to update the above command with the relevant absolute paths on your system. If you encounter issues with the specified outputDir, remove the conflicting "outputDir" value in your simulation's `config.json` and try again.

If you are unable to identify the event-id, try passing with the shortened parameter and ensuring these is no space, i.e. `-eci41075584`.

7) Commit the changes in `ucerf3-etas-results` and push upstream to origin/master.
See the Git Troubleshooting section if you're unable to do this.

== ComcatReportPageGen Usage ==
The [https://github.com/opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher/blob/master/sbin/u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh u3etas_jar_wrapper.sh] shell script is used to execute any Java application in the provided OpenSHA Jar. In this case, we're executing the [https://github.com/opensha/opensha/blob/master/src/main/java/org/opensha/commons/data/comcat/plot/ComcatReportPageGen.java ComcatReportPageGen] application.

<code>
usage: ComcatReportPageGen [-?] [-d <arg>] -e <arg> [-eod <arg>] [-etas <arg>] [-m <arg>] [-o <arg>] [-opd <arg>] [-r <arg>]
-?,--help Display this message
-d,--days-before <arg> Number of days of events before the mainshock to fetch (default: 3)
-e,--event-id <arg> ComCat event id, e.g. 'ci39126079'
-eod,--etas-output-dir <arg> If supplied, ETAS only results will also be written to <path>/<event-id>
-etas,--etas-dir <arg> Path to a UCERF3-ETAS simulation directory
-m,--min-mag <arg> Minimum magnitude of events to fetch (default: 0.0)
-o,--output-dir <arg> Output dirctory. Must supply either this or --output-parent-dir
-opd,--output-parent-dir <arg> Output parent dirctory. The directory name will be generated automatically from the
event name, date, and magnitude. Must supply either this or --output-dir
-r,--radius <arg> Search radius around mainshock for aftershocks. Default is the greater of 10.0 km and
twice the Wells & Coppersmith (1994) median rupture length for the mainshock magnitude

</code>

In our example, we specify the absolute path to where we cloned the ucerf3-etas-results repository, as well as the absolute path to a UCERF3-ETAS results directory within the ucerf3-etas-results repository. Our results are written into two folders to allow us to filter by either date or Event ID.

If running on Expanse, copy any plots from scratch into your own account as we can't run in someone else's folder. You can create a tarball and copy the whole folder into your account. The same logic should apply to any other HPC system. Ensure you execute the script on an interactive node, not on the head node.

== Workflow Automation and Potential Challenges ==
This process of getting our UCERF3-ETAS forecasts into SCEC Event Pages could be automated for jobs run on Quakeworx.

We face the following challenges in doing so:
* Not all Quakeworx users should have permission to publish results for SCEC Event Pages
* If there's an existing result, does the latest run overwrite? New UI for selecting result to use?
* We would have to start tagging commits to track overwritten events and update the web service to checkout accordingly
* SCEC Event Page regeneration would need to be triggered from Quakeworx.

Handling of permissions for a Quakeworx GitHub account, structural changes for storing and reading results from the event-reports repository, and implementing a "Write to Event Page" boolean field on job submission is all feasible. Implementing a UI to retroactively change the selected forecast and trigger page regeneration would require further investigation into the capabilities of the Quakeworx framework and if there's an API for externally triggering the generator. These changes may improve the user experience and make publishing UCERF3-ETAS forecasts easier without requiring knowledge of a Linux terminal.

== Quakeworx ==
Results can be published even when generated on Quakeworx, not just directly via the command-line.
Results are stored inside the Quakeworx development (qwxdev) scratch directory, but each user has a unique ID where their jobs are written to. Below is a list of known Drupaluid IDs for users who frequently run UCERF3-ETAS on Quakeworx.
* Phil Maechling: 6
* Fabio Silva: 7
* Akash Bhatthal: 20
* Scott Callaghan: 22

For example, a job Phil ran on Quakeworx labelled "DeepSprings_EQ" would be found at <code>/expanse/lustre/scratch/qwxdev/temp_project/qwx1/users/drupaluid_6/jobs/DeepSprings_EQ/</code>.

In order to run the ComcatReportPageGen, you should copy this event from scratch into your own home directory. Here you can make changes to the config.json configuration as necessary and execute the generator (See step 6) with an updated etas-dir.

Preferred Rupture Directivity in Hazard Curve Computations

2025-10-08T04:37:01Z

2025-10-08T04:32:46Z

Bhatthal: /* Plots */ Use t=2 for new sites

This page documents efforts to investigate the impact that preferred rupture directions would have on hazard as calculated with CyberShake ground motions in OpenSHA.

== Research Plan ==

There is some evidence that some faults have a preferred rupture direction. To investigate the impact this could have on hazard, we'll identify a handful of faults, modify the probabilities of individual rupture variations to favor those at the preferred end of the fault, and generate new hazard products with the modified probabilities. No new ground motions will need to be calculated; we'll use Study 22.12 and 24.8 ground motions.

Below is a flow chart representing the steps involved in performing this work.

{|
| [[File:Preferred_Rupture_Direction_flow_chart.png|thumb|600px]]
|}

== Implementation Details ==

With the UCERF2 ERF used in Study 22.12 and Study 24.8, probabilities are specified at the rupture level -- that is, for a specific fault segment(s) and magnitude. We then divide the probability by the number of rupture variations to get the uniform probability of each rupture variation. For this work, we will create modified rupture variation probabilities and use these to generate a modified hazard curve.

We will add new functionality to the CyberShake-related code in OpenSHA to support this work. OpenSHA has a defined interface to return a list of probabilities for a given source ID and rupture ID. We'll specify the source ID, rupture ID, rupture variation ID, probability in a CSV file which will be passed to OpenSHA. This file will be parsed and used to populate a data structure, which will then be accessed by an implementation of the interface to determine the new probabilities. For any source ID, rupture ID, rupture variation ID combinations not in the file, we'll use the default UCERF2 probabilities. Then the new probabilities will be used to create a hazard curve.

Modifying the HazardCurvePlotter to allow us to input custom probabilities for rupture variations allows us to compare hazard expected for persistent directivity vs random rupture direction. We can prescribe directivity based on topography or physics reasons and see if the signature is drowned out by randomness of the network or if it still stands out.

Unlike the UCERF2 ERF in standard PSHA, CyberShake utilizes an extended ERF that supports rupture variation probabilities. Both include ruptures, but by specifying hypocenter, we're able to support directivity.

In standard OpenSHA, the hierarchy is sources which are fault segments, down to ruptures which are collection of faults.
CyberShake extended ERFs add another layer, rupture variations. These identify the place on the fault where the hypocenter is and define a slip-time history.

== New Functionality ==
The existing OpenSHA command-line tool, HazardCurvePlotter, is able to compute hazard curves and plot them to images locally on a system. We’ve added a new parameter, <code>rv-probs-csv</code>, for a Rupture Variation Probabilities Input CSV file.

Passing this file allows a user to specify directivity for specific rupture variations. Previously, all variations had an equal probability, distributed from the probability of the rupture itself. The sum of probabilities of the variations must still sum to the probability of the corresponding rupture.

== CSV Files ==

=== CSV Structure ===
The input CSV file should have the following columns.
* Source_ID
* Rupture_ID
* Rup_Var_ID
* Probability

The specified source and rupture acts as a composite key, uniquely identifying a rupture variation. Each rupture at a site is comprised of a set of rupture variations.
The CSV file does not need to have an entry for each variation found in the CyberShake database.
The remaining unspecified variations are given an equal probability distributed from the difference of the rupture probability and the sum of rupture variation probabilities specified.
The formatting, structure, and sum or probabilities are validated in the HazardCurvePlotter.

=== CSV Generation ===

To generate the CSV files used for these tests, we created a Python script which takes in a configuration file and outputs a CSV with modified probabilities for selected rupture variations.

The Python script is available [https://github.com/SCECcode/cybershake-core/blob/main/db/create_prop_file.py here].

=== Inputs ===
The inputs take X% of hypocenters in preferred direction and doubled their probability, and taken X% of hypocenters in opposite direction and set to 0 to keep overall probabilities balanced.

Below are the CSV input files used to generate the results found in the Excel spreadsheet and highlighted plots on this page.

==== Initial Tests ====
Mojave: Southeast -> Northwest, so the preferred hypocenters are in the southern portion of the fault.

Coachella: Northwest -> Southeast, so the preferred hypocenters are in the northern portion of the fault.

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_reference_probs.csv USC_reference_probs.csv] : Reference input with same probabilities as fetched from DB for site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv] : 10% hypocenter responsible modified probabilities for site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv] : 100% modified probability site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa100p.csv USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=USC, run=9306

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=ALP, run=9542
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/ALP_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv ALP_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=ALP, run=9542
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/ALP_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv ALP_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=ALP, run=9542

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=SBSM, run=9320
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv] : 100% modified probability site=SBSM, run=9320
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SBSM_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SBSM, run=9320
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SBSM_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SBSM, run=9320

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=SVD, run=9647
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SVD_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv SVD_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SVD_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv SVD_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=PDE, run=9663
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/PDE_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv PDE_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/PDE_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv PDE_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647

==== Experiment 1 ====
Both Experiment 1 and Experiment 2 have the southern 20% of hypocenters with 90% of total probability. The remaining 10% is distributed over the remaining 80% of hypocenters.

4 fault segments (South San Bernardino, North San Bernardino, South Mojave, North Mojave)

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/PDE_exp1.csv PDE_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=PDE, run=9663
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/s036_exp1.csv s036_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s036, run=9402
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/s776_exp1.csv s776_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s776, run=9536
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/USC_exp1.csv USC_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=USC, run=9306

==== Experiment 2 ====
2 middle segments (North San Bernardino and South Mojave)

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/s080_exp2.csv s080_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s080, run=9409
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/s145_exp2.csv s145_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s145, run=9606
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/s732_exp2.csv s732_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s732, run=9391
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/USC_exp2.csv USC_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=USC, run=9306

== Plots ==
The following plots show curves for the following sites:
* ALP
* USC
* SBSM
* SVD
* PDE
* s036
* s080
* s145
* s732
* s776

There is a plot for each site of the periods (K) 2, 3, 5, and 10, for a total of 40 plots.
Each figure has the following plot lines
* The reference using original probabilities (Ref)
* Where hypocenters are responsible for 90% of the probability (90p, Exp1, Exp2)
* USC and SBSM has additional plot line where hypocenters are responsible for 100% (100p)
* 25% probability over All San Andreas Events (sa25p)
* 100% probability over All San Andreas Events (sa100p)

The hazard curve plots were generated using the following bash scripts:
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/plot_fetch_curves.sh plot_fetch_curves.sh] fetches curves from database
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/plot_modified_curves.sh plot_modified_curves.sh] generates curves using input biases
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/plot_comparison_curves.sh plot_comparison_curves.sh] builds comparison curves from the results of plot_fetch_curves and plot_modified_curves

<code>
./plot_fetch_curves.sh

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/90p csv/initial_tests 90p

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/100p csv/initial_tests 100p

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/sa25p csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas sa25p

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/sa100p csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas sa100p

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/exp1 csv/experiment_1 exp1

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/exp2 csv/experiment_2 exp2

./plot_comparison_curves.sh comps fetchdb modprob
</code>

For the 10p, 90p, and 100p plots, the results are identical to the fetched probabilities. When considering all events across the San Andreas, we see significant impact to PDE and ALP, some impact to SVD, and no visible significant impact to SBSM and USC.

In our follow-up experiments, Experiment 1 (Exp1) and Experiment 2 (Exp2), we did not observe any significant ground motion. This is in spite of selecting CyberShake sites which directly line up with the ends of the faults.

For the sake of brevity, we only show one plot per site in the highlighted plots below.

All generated comparison plots are available at [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/comps opensha-cybershake GitHub - Comparison Plots]

Individual plots and X,Y data is available on GitHub at [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/fetchdb fetchdb] for fetched reference data and [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob modprob] for modified probability data.

=== USC 9306 ===

[[File:usc-t=3.png|800px|USC 3s]]

Site: University of Southern California (USC)

Compute Time: 1min 7s (90p), 48s (100p), 1min 12s (sa25p), 1min 23s (sa100p), 6min 4s (Exp1), 48s (Exp2)

=== ALP 9542 ===
[[File:alp-t=5.png|800px|ALP 5s]]

Site: Antelope (ALP)

Compute Time: 1min 16s (90p), 1min 12s (sa25p), 1min 29s (sa100p)

=== SBSM 9320 ===
[[File:sbsm-t=3.png|800px|SBSM 3s]]

Site: San Bernardino Strong Motion (SBSM)

Compute Time: 59s (90p), 1min 1s (100p), 1min 12s (sa25p), 1min 24s (sa100p)

=== SVD 9647 ===
[[File:svd-t=3.png|800px|SVD 3s]]

Site: Seven Oaks Dam (SVD)

Compute Time: 1min 16s (90p), 1min 13s (sa25p), 1min 26s (sa100p)

=== PDE 9663 ===
[[File:pde-t=10.png|800px|PDE 10s]]

Site: Pardee (PDE)

Compute Time: 1min 21s (90p), 1min 4s (sa25p), 1min 25s (sa100p), 2min 36s (Exp1)

=== s036 9402 ===
[[File:s036-t=2.png|800px|s036 10s]]

Site: s036

Compute Time: 7min 34s (Exp1)

=== s080 9409 ===
[[File:s080-t=2.png|800px|s080 10s]]

Site: s080

Compute Time: 5min 28s (Exp2)

=== s145 9606 ===
[[File:s145-t=2.png|800px|s145 10s]]

Site: s145

Compute Time: 5min 55s (Exp2)

=== s732 9391 ===
[[File:s732-t=2.png|800px|s732 10s]]

Site: s732

Compute Time: 7min 52s (Exp2)

=== s776 9536 ===
[[File:s776-t=2.png|800px|s776 10s]]

Site: s776

Compute Time: 7min 29s (Exp1)

File:Pde-t=10.png

2025-10-08T04:31:09Z

Bhatthal: Bhatthal uploaded a new version of File:Pde-t=10.png

File:Svd-t=3.png

2025-10-08T04:30:26Z

Bhatthal: Bhatthal uploaded a new version of File:Svd-t=3.png

File:Sbsm-t=3.png

2025-10-08T04:30:07Z

Bhatthal: Bhatthal uploaded a new version of File:Sbsm-t=3.png

File:Alp-t=5.png

2025-10-08T04:29:43Z

Bhatthal: Bhatthal uploaded a new version of File:Alp-t=5.png

File:Usc-t=3.png

2025-10-08T04:29:14Z

Bhatthal: Bhatthal uploaded a new version of File:Usc-t=3.png

Preferred Rupture Directivity in Hazard Curve Computations

2025-10-08T03:22:38Z

Bhatthal: /* Plots */ Add links to generated plots on GitHub and explain new script. Remove Excel spreadsheet.

This page documents efforts to investigate the impact that preferred rupture directions would have on hazard as calculated with CyberShake ground motions in OpenSHA.

== Research Plan ==

There is some evidence that some faults have a preferred rupture direction. To investigate the impact this could have on hazard, we'll identify a handful of faults, modify the probabilities of individual rupture variations to favor those at the preferred end of the fault, and generate new hazard products with the modified probabilities. No new ground motions will need to be calculated; we'll use Study 22.12 and 24.8 ground motions.

Below is a flow chart representing the steps involved in performing this work.

{|
| [[File:Preferred_Rupture_Direction_flow_chart.png|thumb|600px]]
|}

== Implementation Details ==

With the UCERF2 ERF used in Study 22.12 and Study 24.8, probabilities are specified at the rupture level -- that is, for a specific fault segment(s) and magnitude. We then divide the probability by the number of rupture variations to get the uniform probability of each rupture variation. For this work, we will create modified rupture variation probabilities and use these to generate a modified hazard curve.

We will add new functionality to the CyberShake-related code in OpenSHA to support this work. OpenSHA has a defined interface to return a list of probabilities for a given source ID and rupture ID. We'll specify the source ID, rupture ID, rupture variation ID, probability in a CSV file which will be passed to OpenSHA. This file will be parsed and used to populate a data structure, which will then be accessed by an implementation of the interface to determine the new probabilities. For any source ID, rupture ID, rupture variation ID combinations not in the file, we'll use the default UCERF2 probabilities. Then the new probabilities will be used to create a hazard curve.

Modifying the HazardCurvePlotter to allow us to input custom probabilities for rupture variations allows us to compare hazard expected for persistent directivity vs random rupture direction. We can prescribe directivity based on topography or physics reasons and see if the signature is drowned out by randomness of the network or if it still stands out.

Unlike the UCERF2 ERF in standard PSHA, CyberShake utilizes an extended ERF that supports rupture variation probabilities. Both include ruptures, but by specifying hypocenter, we're able to support directivity.

In standard OpenSHA, the hierarchy is sources which are fault segments, down to ruptures which are collection of faults.
CyberShake extended ERFs add another layer, rupture variations. These identify the place on the fault where the hypocenter is and define a slip-time history.

== New Functionality ==
The existing OpenSHA command-line tool, HazardCurvePlotter, is able to compute hazard curves and plot them to images locally on a system. We’ve added a new parameter, <code>rv-probs-csv</code>, for a Rupture Variation Probabilities Input CSV file.

Passing this file allows a user to specify directivity for specific rupture variations. Previously, all variations had an equal probability, distributed from the probability of the rupture itself. The sum of probabilities of the variations must still sum to the probability of the corresponding rupture.

== CSV Files ==

=== CSV Structure ===
The input CSV file should have the following columns.
* Source_ID
* Rupture_ID
* Rup_Var_ID
* Probability

The specified source and rupture acts as a composite key, uniquely identifying a rupture variation. Each rupture at a site is comprised of a set of rupture variations.
The CSV file does not need to have an entry for each variation found in the CyberShake database.
The remaining unspecified variations are given an equal probability distributed from the difference of the rupture probability and the sum of rupture variation probabilities specified.
The formatting, structure, and sum or probabilities are validated in the HazardCurvePlotter.

=== CSV Generation ===

To generate the CSV files used for these tests, we created a Python script which takes in a configuration file and outputs a CSV with modified probabilities for selected rupture variations.

The Python script is available [https://github.com/SCECcode/cybershake-core/blob/main/db/create_prop_file.py here].

=== Inputs ===
The inputs take X% of hypocenters in preferred direction and doubled their probability, and taken X% of hypocenters in opposite direction and set to 0 to keep overall probabilities balanced.

Below are the CSV input files used to generate the results found in the Excel spreadsheet and highlighted plots on this page.

==== Initial Tests ====
Mojave: Southeast -> Northwest, so the preferred hypocenters are in the southern portion of the fault.

Coachella: Northwest -> Southeast, so the preferred hypocenters are in the northern portion of the fault.

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_reference_probs.csv USC_reference_probs.csv] : Reference input with same probabilities as fetched from DB for site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv] : 10% hypocenter responsible modified probabilities for site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv] : 100% modified probability site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=USC, run=9306
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa100p.csv USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=USC, run=9306

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=ALP, run=9542
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/ALP_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv ALP_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=ALP, run=9542
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/ALP_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv ALP_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=ALP, run=9542

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=SBSM, run=9320
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv] : 100% modified probability site=SBSM, run=9320
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SBSM_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SBSM, run=9320
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SBSM_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SBSM, run=9320

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=SVD, run=9647
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SVD_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv SVD_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SVD_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv SVD_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=PDE, run=9663
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/PDE_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv PDE_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/PDE_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv PDE_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647

==== Experiment 1 ====
Both Experiment 1 and Experiment 2 have the southern 20% of hypocenters with 90% of total probability. The remaining 10% is distributed over the remaining 80% of hypocenters.

4 fault segments (South San Bernardino, North San Bernardino, South Mojave, North Mojave)

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/PDE_exp1.csv PDE_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=PDE, run=9663
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/s036_exp1.csv s036_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s036, run=9402
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/s776_exp1.csv s776_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s776, run=9536
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/USC_exp1.csv USC_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=USC, run=9306

==== Experiment 2 ====
2 middle segments (North San Bernardino and South Mojave)

* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/s080_exp2.csv s080_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s080, run=9409
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/s145_exp2.csv s145_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s145, run=9606
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/s732_exp2.csv s732_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s732, run=9391
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/USC_exp2.csv USC_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=USC, run=9306

== Plots ==
The following plots show curves for the following sites:
* ALP
* USC
* SBSM
* SVD
* PDE
* s036
* s080
* s145
* s732
* s776

There is a plot for each site of the periods (K) 2, 3, 5, and 10, for a total of 40 plots.
Each figure has the following plot lines
* The reference using original probabilities (Ref)
* Where hypocenters are responsible for 90% of the probability (90p, Exp1, Exp2)
* USC and SBSM has additional plot line where hypocenters are responsible for 100% (100p)
* 25% probability over All San Andreas Events (sa25p)
* 100% probability over All San Andreas Events (sa100p)

The hazard curve plots were generated using the following bash scripts:
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/plot_fetch_curves.sh plot_fetch_curves.sh] fetches curves from database
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/plot_modified_curves.sh plot_modified_curves.sh] generates curves using input biases
* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/plot_comparison_curves.sh plot_comparison_curves.sh] builds comparison curves from the results of plot_fetch_curves and plot_modified_curves

<code>
./plot_fetch_curves.sh

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/90p csv/initial_tests 90p

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/100p csv/initial_tests 100p

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/sa25p csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas sa25p

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/sa100p csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas sa100p

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/exp1 csv/experiment_1 exp1

./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/exp2 csv/experiment_2 exp2

./plot_comparison_curves.sh comps fetchdb modprob
</code>

For the 10p, 90p, and 100p plots, the results are identical to the fetched probabilities. When considering all events across the San Andreas, we see significant impact to PDE and ALP, some impact to SVD, and no visible significant impact to SBSM and USC.

In our follow-up experiments, Experiment 1 (Exp1) and Experiment 2 (Exp2), we did not observe any significant ground motion. This is in spite of selecting CyberShake sites which directly line up with the ends of the faults.

For the sake of brevity, we only show one plot per site in the highlighted plots below.

All generated comparison plots are available at [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/comps opensha-cybershake GitHub - Comparison Plots]

Individual plots and X,Y data is available on GitHub at [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/fetchdb fetchdb] for fetched reference data and [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob modprob] for modified probability data.

=== USC 9306 ===

[[File:usc-t=3.png|800px|USC 3s]]

Site: University of Southern California (USC)

Compute Time: 1min 7s (90p), 48s (100p), 1min 12s (sa25p), 1min 23s (sa100p), 6min 4s (Exp1), 48s (Exp2)

=== ALP 9542 ===
[[File:alp-t=5.png|800px|ALP 5s]]

Site: Antelope (ALP)

Compute Time: 1min 16s (90p), 1min 12s (sa25p), 1min 29s (sa100p)

=== SBSM 9320 ===
[[File:sbsm-t=3.png|800px|SBSM 3s]]

Site: San Bernardino Strong Motion (SBSM)

Compute Time: 59s (90p), 1min 1s (100p), 1min 12s (sa25p), 1min 24s (sa100p)

=== SVD 9647 ===
[[File:svd-t=3.png|800px|SVD 3s]]

Site: Seven Oaks Dam (SVD)

Compute Time: 1min 16s (90p), 1min 13s (sa25p), 1min 26s (sa100p)

=== PDE 9663 ===
[[File:pde-t=10.png|800px|PDE 10s]]

Site: Pardee (PDE)

Compute Time: 1min 21s (90p), 1min 4s (sa25p), 1min 25s (sa100p), 2min 36s (Exp1)

=== s036 9402 ===
[[File:s036-t=10.png|800px|s036 10s]]

Site: s036

Compute Time: 7min 34s (Exp1)

=== s080 9409 ===
[[File:s080-t=10.png|800px|s080 10s]]

Site: s080

Compute Time: 5min 28s (Exp2)

=== s145 9606 ===
[[File:s145-t=10.png|800px|s145 10s]]

Site: s145

Compute Time: 5min 55s (Exp2)

=== s732 9391 ===
[[File:s732-t=10.png|800px|s732 10s]]

Site: s732

Compute Time: 7min 52s (Exp2)

=== s776 9536 ===
[[File:s776-t=10.png|800px|s776 10s]]

Site: s776

Compute Time: 7min 29s (Exp1)

File:Hazard Curve Comparison Plots.xlsx

2025-10-07T06:24:11Z

Bhatthal: Bhatthal uploaded a new version of File:Hazard Curve Comparison Plots.xlsx

Preferred Rupture Directivity in Hazard Curve Computations

2025-10-07T05:35:07Z

2025-10-07T05:31:23Z

Bhatthal: Bhatthal uploaded a new version of File:Pde-t=10.png

File:Usc-t=3.png

2025-10-07T05:29:50Z

Bhatthal: Bhatthal uploaded a new version of File:Usc-t=3.png