SCECpedia - Recent changes [en]

File:Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png

Bhatthal — Tue, 26 May 2026 20:22:48 GMT

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ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence

Bhatthal — Tue, 19 May 2026 00:11:35 GMT

Add ETAS enqueue and build time data

File:Shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pgv-shakemap.png

Bhatthal — Mon, 18 May 2026 22:06:45 GMT

Bhatthal uploaded File:Shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pgv-shakemap.png

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File:Shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pga-shakemap.png

Bhatthal — Mon, 18 May 2026 22:06:17 GMT

Bhatthal uploaded File:Shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pga-shakemap.png

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File:Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-pgv-shakemap.png

Bhatthal — Mon, 18 May 2026 22:05:33 GMT

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File:Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-pga-shakemap.png

Bhatthal — Mon, 18 May 2026 21:49:17 GMT

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ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence

Bhatthal — Sat, 16 May 2026 10:04:17 GMT

ETAS Results

File:Shakeout-2.0-fss198678-scec-vdo.png

Bhatthal — Fri, 15 May 2026 22:02:48 GMT

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ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence

Bhatthal — Fri, 15 May 2026 17:07:34 GMT

ETAS Results

UCVM muscal

Scottcal — Fri, 15 May 2026 17:02:10 GMT

Scottcal moved page UCVM muscal to MUSCAL

New page

This page describes the Multi-Scale CALifornia (MUSCAL) velocity model and its integration into UCVM.

== Model overview ==

The MUSCAL Vp and Vs model was created by Te-Yang Yeh and Yehuda Ben-Zion in 2025-6 by starting with the CANVAS tomography model as a base and then integrating multiple regional and local high-resolution models. Each submodel is evaluated to determine where it improves the fit through simulations of M4 historical events to 1 Hz, and then the overall model is updated where the submodel improves the fit.

=== Model Components ===

The model was built by starting with a base model (the CANVAS (Doody et al., 2023) tomography model). Next, regional and local models are added where they improve the fit, based on M4 simulations. These simulations were run to 1 Hz with topography using a minimum Vs of 450 m/s. Finally, a spatially varying taper following the Ely approach is added.

==== Regional Models ====

Regional models evaluated for inclusion are:
<ul>
<li>Northern California
<ul>
<li>Lin et al. (2010)</li>
<li>Furlong et al. (2024)</li>
<li>Guo et al. (2024)</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Central California
<ul>
<li>CCA-06</li>
<li>CVM-H v15.1.1</li>
<li>CVM-S4.26</li>
<li>Guo et al. (2024)</li>
<li>Berg et al. (2021)</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Southern California
<ul>
<li>Fang et al. (2022)</li>
<li>CVM-S4.26</li>
<li>CVM-H v15.1.1</li>
<li>Berg et al. (2021)</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>

==== Local Models ====

Below is a list of local high-resolution models that were evaluated for inclusion.

Northern and Central California:
<ul>
<li>Ridgecrest regional (Li and Ben-Zion (2024))</li>
<li>Ridgecrest fault zone (Zhou et al. (2022))</li>
<li>San Joaquin basin (Shaw & Plesch (2016))</li>
<li>SFCVM v21.1 (Hirakawa & Aagaard (2022))</li>
</ul>

Southern California:
<ul>
<li>San Jacinto fault zone (Fang et al. (2019))</li>
<li>San Gabriel-San Bernardino Basin (Li et al. (2023))</li>
<li>Imperial Valley (Persaud et al. (2016))</li>
<li>Coachella Valley (Ajala et al. (2019))</li>
<li>Santa Maria Basin (Plesch et al. (2020))</li>
</ul>

==== Taper ====

MUSCAL includes a low-velocity taper using the Ely-Jordan approach. Vs30 for this method is produced by merging the Thompson (2018) Vs30 map with the [https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/vs30/ USGS global Vs30 dataset].

The depth of the taper varies depending on the site and ranges from 300m to 1500m.

== Delivered Model ==

The final version of MUSCAL is delivered in netCDF format. The dimensions of the model in grid points are 1251 (lat) x 1301 (lon) x 210 (depth). Grid points have a spacing of 0.01 degrees in the horizontal; the depth is variable with denser sampling near the surface. The model is interpolated using trilinear interpolation.

Details about the model creation are provided in the paper and the [https://zenodo.org/records/19243477 Zenodo page].

Below is a plot of the 3D model extent.

{|
| [[File:MUSCAL_region_extent.png|thumb|400px]]
|}

=== Datasets ===

zone: 11

command use:
plot_depth_profile.py -n $UCVM_INSTALL_PATH/conf/ucvm.conf -i $UCVM_INSTALL_PATH -d vs -c muscal
-o muscal_small_depth_1000.png -C 'Multi-Scale Statewide California Velocity Model'
-v 1000 -b 0 -s 36.5054,-119.0587 -e 30000

==== big data in netcdf ====

model_MSCAL_CANVAS_dll0.01_dz50_cmpd.nc
4.5G

longitude:1301 from -126 to -113
latitude:1251 from 31 to 43.5
depth:671 from 0 to 100,000
50 increments until 30,000
1000 increments til 100000

Plot Depth profile at 36.5054,-119.0587 in different step increments. No interpretation and access data using nc api

{|
| [[FILE:muscal_big_deth_50.png|thumb|300px|muscal big 50 vs]]
| [[FILE:muscal_big_deth_100.png|thumb|300px|muscal big 100 vs]]
| [[FILE:muscal_big_depth_500.png|thumb|300px|muscal big 500 vs]]
| [[FILE:muscal_big_deth_1000.png|thumb|300px|muscal big 1000 vs]]
|}

[[FILE:muscal_big_depth-50_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_big_depth-100_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_big_depth-500_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_big_depth-1000_matprops.json.txt]]

==== small data in netcdf ====
model_MUSCAL_CANVAS_dll0.01_vardz_cmpd.nc
2.1G

longitdue:1301 from -126 to -113
latitude:1251 from 31 to 43.5
depth:210 from 0 to 99,000
50 increments upto 3000
100 increments upto 5000
250 increments upto 10000
500 increments upto 30000
1000 increments upto 99000

Depth profiles in different steps : 50m,100m,500m,1000m

Direct from netcdf as external file

{|
|[[FILE:muscal_small_depth_50.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 50 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_deth_100.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 100 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_depth_500.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 500 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_deth_1000.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 1000 vs]]
|}

[[FILE:muscal_small_depth-50_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_depth-100_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_depth-500_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_depth-1000_matprops.json.txt]]

Loaded in-memory as binary data no interpolation

{|
|[[FILE:muscal_small_no_interp_50.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 50 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_no_interp_100.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 100 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_no_interp_500.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 500 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_no_interp_1000.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 1000 vs]]
|}

[[FILE:muscal_small_no_interp-50_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_no_interp-100_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_no_interp-500_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_no_interp-1000_matprops.json.txt]]

==== Another small dataset in netcdf ====

model_MUSCAL_CANVAS_dll0.01_vardz_float32_cmpd.nc
1.4G

All longitude, latitude, and depth points are now saved as float32, as well as the vp, vs, and rho.

Loaded in-memory as binary data with interpolation

{|
|[[FILE:muscal_small_interp_50.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 50 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_interp_100.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 100 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_interp_500.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 500 vs]]
|[[FILE:muscal_small_interp_1000.png|thumb|300px|muscal small 1000 vs]]
|}

[[FILE:muscal_small_interp-50_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_interp-100_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_interp-500_matprops.json.txt]]
[[FILE:muscal_small_interp-1000_matprops.json.txt]]

=== Validation ===

Several steps of pre/post processing are done to original MUSCAL model(netcdf format) in order to
incorporate it into UCVM and CVM explorer.

Because of the speed of netcdf-C code is too slow to support in-time nature of the explorer and would
like to have interpolation on query,

* Number of depth layer is reduced with deeper layers merged into fewer layers
* preprocessing the netcdf data into binary data files
* data are all in float32

[[FILE:MUSCAL_test_points_deep.txt]]
[[FILE:MUSCAL_test_points_shallow.txt]]

Final result from ucvm_query, (with interpolation)

[[FILE:MUSCAL_test_points_deep.final.txt]]
[[FILE:MUSCAL_test_points_shallow.final.txt]]

== Extended Model ==

The 3D MUSCAL model is defined over the same volume as the CANVAS base model. However, some simulation regions may extend beyond the boundaries, like the blue corners in the example CyberShake volume for USC below:

{|
| [[File:USC_muscal_horiz_slice_z0.png|thumb|400px]]
|}

To solve this in a consistent and reproducible way, we will extend the MUSCAL model through UCVM. The initial plan is to use the following algorithm:
<ol>
<li>Query 3D MUSCAL model at a given point.</li>
<li>If the model returns NaNs (indicating the point is beyond the bounds of the 3D model):
<ol>
<li>Query the 1D MUSCAL model (Te-Yang to provide this).</li>
<li>Determine Vs30 from the USGS Global Vs30 model.</li>
<li>Apply the Ely taper (LVT) to the top 300m.</li>
</ol>
</li>
</ol>

ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence

Bhatthal — Fri, 15 May 2026 16:26:19 GMT

File:Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-shakemap.png

Bhatthal — Fri, 15 May 2026 01:07:12 GMT

Bhatthal uploaded File:Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-shakemap.png

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ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence

Bhatthal — Fri, 15 May 2026 00:50:27 GMT

FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr

ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence

Bhatthal — Thu, 14 May 2026 22:34:15 GMT

Created page with "== Overview == The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the..."

New page

== Overview ==
The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008).
See the [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iR12SpVkMW0Hw1AshSB8L_pq1Z6XZAstDC5sQBWOz6w/edit?usp=sharing ShakeOut TAG Proposal] for more information.

This document collects findings for aftershock sequences calculating the likelihood of M7 aftershocks in the Los Angeles Basin.
Each document section corresponds to a rupture from UCERF3 (2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL).
UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.

=== FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr ===
[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png|500px|frameless]]

'''Fig 1. Rupture 199642'''

TODO: Copy methodology and add links to data products

File:Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png

Bhatthal — Thu, 14 May 2026 22:32:02 GMT

Bhatthal uploaded File:Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png

New page

Main Page

Bhatthal — Thu, 14 May 2026 22:04:25 GMT

Create new entry for ShakeOut 2.0 aftershock sequences

@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
 == Config Builder ==
 Get time in milliseconds for the start time of your event with date (GNU coreutils) 8.30 on Expanse.
 E.g. Epoch for Tue May 12 2026 3:19PM.
@@ Line 52: / Line 51: @@
 Use the appropriate <code>hpc-site</code> for the corresponding system.
 <pre>Expanse = SDSC_EXPANSE, Discovery = USC_CARC, Stampede3 = TACC_STAMPEDE3, Frontera = TACC_FRONTERA</pre>
@@ Line 115: / Line 116: @@
 === ShakeMap ===
-[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-shakemap.png|500px|frameless]]
+[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-pga-shakemap.png|500px|frameless]]
 '''Fig 2. Rupture 199642 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGA)'''
-The above ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with
+The above PGA ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with
-[https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/shakemap/map_info.html the following map configuration parameters].
+[https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/shakemap/pga/map_info.html the following map configuration parameters].
@@ Line 129: / Line 137: @@
 We ran out of memory on Frontera attempting to run 50k simulations with 128 compute nodes, and reached 27k.
 * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/expanse-s17100/index.html Expanse (17,100 simulations)]
 * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/stampede3-s7000/index.html Stampede3 (7000 simulations)]
-* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/frontera-s27036/index.html Frontera (27,036 simulations)]
+** 14 nodes, 144 GB/node, 18 threads
 == FSS Rupture 198678, M7.8047805, Start 2026/05/12, 1 yr ==
 [[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss198678-scec-vdo.png|500px|frameless]]
-'''Fig 3. Rupture 198678 highlighted in red'''
+'''Fig 4. Rupture 198678 highlighted in red'''
 Above is a [[SCEC VDO]] visualization of Rupture 198678, which is comprised of the following subsections:
@@ Line 194: / Line 218: @@
 === ShakeMap ===
-TODO: Insert ShakeMap
+[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pga-shakemap.png|500px|frameless]]
 === ETAS Results ===
-TODO: Insert results after simulation completes
+Ran 25k catalogs on Frontera with 100 nodes.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 == Overview ==
 The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008).
@@ Line 48: / Line 46: @@
         --num-simulations $NUM_SIM \
         --hpc-site TACC_FRONTERA \
         --output-dir $ETAS_SIM_DIR/scenarios/frontera-scenario-fss${FSS_IDX}-n${NUM_NODE}-s${NUM_SIM}-t${EPOCH_MS}
@@ Line 126: / Line 125: @@
 === ETAS Results ===
-We've attempted to run 100k catalogs across Stampede3, Frontera, and Expanse.
+We've attempted to run 100k catalogs with 14 compute nodes across Stampede3, Frontera, and Expanse.
 However, we reached a 24h time out and reached 17k on Expanse and 7k on Stampede3.
-We increased the compute resources for Frontera and are currently computing a 50k simulation there.
+We ran out of memory on Frontera attempting to run 50k simulations with 128 compute nodes, and reached 27k.
 * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/expanse-s17100/index.html Expanse (17,100 simulations)]
 * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/stampede3-s7000/index.html Stampede3 (7000 simulations)]
-* Frontera (50,000 simulations) TODO: Insert results after simulation completes
+* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/frontera-s27036/index.html Frontera (27,036 simulations)]

@@ Line 129: / Line 129: @@
 However, we reached a 24h time out and reached 17k on Expanse and 7k on Stampede3.
 We increased the compute resources for Frontera and are currently computing a 50k simulation there.
 * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/expanse-s17100/index.html Expanse (17,100 simulations)]
 * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/stampede3-s7000/index.html Stampede3 (7000 simulations)]
 * Frontera (50,000 simulations) TODO: Insert results after simulation completes

@@ Line 9: / Line 9: @@
 UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.
-=== Rupture Search ===
+== Rupture Search ==
 Instead of manually searching for a point source, we select a rupture from UCERF3 that matches the scenario description and use that as the trigger.
@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
-=== FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr ===
+== Config Builder ==
 [[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png|500px|frameless]]
 '''Fig 1. Rupture 199642 highlighted in red'''
-Above is a visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections:
+Above is a [[SCEC VDO]] visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections:
 <pre>
 Rupture 199642, M=7.801467
@@ Line 86: / Line 115: @@
-TODO: Copy results and methodology
+=== ShakeMap ===

@@ Line 16: / Line 16: @@
 == Current Activities ==
 * [[SCEC Event Page Troubleshooting]]
 * [[Research Computing Continuity Plans]]