https://strike.scec.org/scecwiki/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=CSEP_Minutes_02-20-2019 2026-04-28T08:10:25Z Revision history for this page on the wiki MediaWiki 1.34.2 https://strike.scec.org/scecwiki/index.php?title=CSEP_Minutes_02-20-2019&diff=22302&oldid=prev 2019-02-21T02:26:03Z

<p></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 02:26, 21 February 2019</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l1" >Line 1:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 1:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]&lt;br&gt;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]&lt;br&gt;</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>''Participants'': D. Jackson, W. Savran, D. Rhoades, A. Michael, M. Werner<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, </del>W. Marzocchi <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">and P. Maechling</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>''Participants'': D. Jackson, W. Savran, D. Rhoades, A. Michael, M. Werner <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">and </ins>W. Marzocchi</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Use histograms as opposed to ECDF using some type of cumulative statistic.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Use histograms as opposed to ECDF using some type of cumulative statistic.  </div></td></tr> </table>

Wsavran https://strike.scec.org/scecwiki/index.php?title=CSEP_Minutes_02-20-2019&diff=22299&oldid=prev 2019-02-21T01:16:19Z

<p></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 01:16, 21 February 2019</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l1" >Line 1:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 1:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">&lt;br&gt;</del>&lt;br&gt;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]&lt;br&gt;</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>''Participants'': D. Jackson, W. Savran, D. Rhoades, A. Michael, M. Werner, W. Marzocchi and P. Maechling</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>''Participants'': D. Jackson, W. Savran, D. Rhoades, A. Michael, M. Werner, W. Marzocchi and P. Maechling</div></td></tr> </table>

Wsavran https://strike.scec.org/scecwiki/index.php?title=CSEP_Minutes_02-20-2019&diff=22298&oldid=prev 2019-02-21T01:16:06Z

<p>Created page with &quot;<a href="/scecpedia/CSEP_Working_Group" title="CSEP Working Group">CSEP Working Group Home Page</a>&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; &#039;&#039;Participants&#039;&#039;: D. Jackson, W. Savran, D. Rhoades, A. Michael, M. Werner, W. Marzocchi and P. Maechling * Use h...&quot;</p> <p><b>New page</b></p><div>[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;<br /> <br /> ''Participants'': D. Jackson, W. Savran, D. Rhoades, A. Michael, M. Werner, W. Marzocchi and P. Maechling<br /> <br /> * Use histograms as opposed to ECDF using some type of cumulative statistic. <br /> * The K-S statistic provides biased values bc we are likely always going to be seeing largest differences at the greatest magnitudes, move to cumulative statistics.<br /> * Could also start the test above magnitudes of interest with a significance of earthquake hazard.<br /> * Imagine a hierarchy of tests that starts at a high-level and becomes more granular.<br /> * Look into the discrepancy in the ECDF.<br /> * Conditional magnitude test based on the observed number of events, this would involve some type of sampling based of the combined distribution.<br /> * Spatial distribution is very important, could be important more so than the number-distribution of the forecast; from USGS perspective.<br /> * What is interesting about UCERF3-ETAS:<br /> ** Spatial distribution is most important and the differentiator between UCERF3-ETAS and regular ETAS.<br /> ** Time-frame matters; most catalogs are computed for long times such that most catalogs are circular. <br /> ** The value of the model might be seen from the long-term behavior of the model.<br /> * We could bin the models spatially and perform the N-test. We’d want to know how the models vary at the different between look-ahead times.<br /> * Need effective ways of communicating CSEP tests with the public. Tests should be accompanied with meaningful figures. See figures from the USGS wrt spatial forecasts.<br /> * Think about aggregate testing, for example, within Italy, people are interested in final outcomes. A powerful way is to use some sort of tool that David mentioned of plotting the time varying results.<br /> * Look at the weather forecasting community.</div>

Wsavran