CSEP Minutes 10-24-2018 - Revision history

Wsavran: /* Minutes */

2018-10-24T20:27:09Z

Minutes

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2018-10-24T20:26:06Z

Simulations

Wsavran: Created page with "CSEP Working Group Home Page

''Participants'': William Savran, Andy Michael, David Rhoades, Jacqui Gilchrist, Warner Marzocchi, Max Werner, Ann..."

2018-10-24T20:25:55Z

Created page with "CSEP Working Group Home Page<br><br> ''Participants'': William Savran, Andy Michael, David Rhoades, Jacqui Gilchrist, Warner Marzocchi, Max Werner, Ann..."

New page

[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br><br>

''Participants'': William Savran, Andy Michael, David Rhoades, Jacqui Gilchrist, Warner Marzocchi, Max Werner, Anne Strader, Dave Jackson, Phil Maechling

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= Minutes =

== Simulations ==

* Verify with Ned: Does no faults ETAS include characteristic earthquake behavior? If a large earthquake does not rupture on a known fault does that produce an isotropic aftershock distribution.
* Characteristic EQ Behavior: the larger earthquakes in a segment are overrepresented wrt to their extrapolation in a GR plots.
* The aftershocks still follow GR (in ETAS), so the larger proportion of large earthquakes causes more aftershocks and can lead to runaway sequences.
* David Rhoades simulation-based model can produce stochastic event sets. With little modifications.
* How long will it take until we know whether or not faults make the difference in the simulations?
* Can deal with fault-finiteness by pulling from the ComCat or looking at earthquake aftershocks

== Evaluations ==
* Warner and David supplied a document outlining the new possible tests for CSEP2 simulation- based tests.
* Tests typically follow CSEP1 consistency testing ideas with some emphasis on formulating likelihood based tests.
* Need to put some more effort into understanding likelihood (comparative) based-testing.
* Paper on proper scoring: https://www.stat.washington.edu/raftery/Research/PDF/Gneiting2007jasa.pdf

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:27, 24 October 2018
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	= Minutes =		= Minutes =
		+	The topics of the call were about the current California aftershock forecasting experiment at the SCEC Testing Center and developing evaluations for simulations that produce stochastic event sets.

	== Simulations ==		== Simulations ==

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 == Simulations ==
- * Verify with Ned: Does no faults ETAS include characteristic earthquake behavior? If a large earthquake does not rupture on a known fault does that produce an isotropic aftershock distribution.
+* Verify with Ned: Does no faults ETAS include characteristic earthquake behavior? If a large earthquake does not rupture on a known fault does that produce an isotropic aftershock distribution.
 * Characteristic EQ Behavior: the larger earthquakes in a segment are overrepresented wrt to their extrapolation in a GR plots.
 * The aftershocks still follow GR (in ETAS), so the larger proportion of large earthquakes causes more aftershocks and can lead to runaway sequences.

CSEP Minutes 10-24-2018 - Revision history

Wsavran: /* Minutes */

Wsavran: /* Simulations */

Wsavran: Created page with "CSEP Working Group Home Page ''Participants'': William Savran, Andy Michael, David Rhoades, Jacqui Gilchrist, Warner Marzocchi, Max Werner, Ann..."

Wsavran: Created page with "CSEP Working Group Home Page

''Participants'': William Savran, Andy Michael, David Rhoades, Jacqui Gilchrist, Warner Marzocchi, Max Werner, Ann..."