Preferred Rupture Directivity in Hazard Curve Computations - Revision history

Bhatthal: /* Plots */ Update conclusion for Exp1

2025-10-08T04:37:01Z

Plots: Update conclusion for Exp1

Bhatthal: /* Plots */ Use t=2 for new sites

2025-10-08T04:32:46Z

Plots: Use t=2 for new sites

Bhatthal: /* Plots */ Add links to generated plots on GitHub and explain new script. Remove Excel spreadsheet.

2025-10-08T03:22:38Z

Plots: Add links to generated plots on GitHub and explain new script. Remove Excel spreadsheet.

Bhatthal: /* s776 9536 */ Add compute time for s776

2025-10-07T05:35:07Z

s776 9536: Add compute time for s776

Bhatthal: /* Plots */ Add compute times for exp1 and exp2.

2025-10-07T05:25:33Z

Plots: Add compute times for exp1 and exp2.

Bhatthal: /* Plots */ Update plots section with followup experiments description and new sites list

2025-10-07T05:19:32Z

Plots: Update plots section with followup experiments description and new sites list

Bhatthal: /* Inputs */

2025-10-07T05:11:52Z

Inputs

Bhatthal: /* CSV Files */ Update links and add new CSV inputs for exp1 and exp2.

2025-10-07T05:06:42Z

CSV Files: Update links and add new CSV inputs for exp1 and exp2.

Bhatthal: Update modified plot command to reflect updated file structure and new experiments

2025-10-06T19:23:24Z

Update modified plot command to reflect updated file structure and new experiments

Bhatthal: /* Inputs */ Add description of how preferred directivity in inputs works

2025-09-05T21:14:35Z

Inputs: Add description of how preferred directivity in inputs works

@@ Line 147: / Line 147: @@
 For the 10p, 90p, and 100p plots, the results are identical to the fetched probabilities. When considering all events across the San Andreas, we see significant impact to PDE and ALP, some impact to SVD, and no visible significant impact to SBSM and USC.
-In our follow-up experiments, Experiment 1 (Exp1) and Experiment 2 (Exp2), we did not observe any significant ground motion. This is in spite of selecting CyberShake sites which directly line up with the ends of the faults.
+In our follow-up experiments, Experiment 1 (Exp1) and Experiment 2 (Exp2), we observe significant ground motion (reduction of 10%) in s776 with a period of 2s.
 For the sake of brevity, we only show one plot per site in the highlighted plots below.

@@ Line 192: / Line 192: @@
 === s036 9402 ===
-[[File:s036-t=10.png|800px|s036 10s]]
+[[File:s036-t=2.png|800px|s036 10s]]
 Site: s036
@@ Line 199: / Line 199: @@
 === s080 9409 ===
-[[File:s080-t=10.png|800px|s080 10s]]
+[[File:s080-t=2.png|800px|s080 10s]]
 Site: s080
@@ Line 206: / Line 206: @@
 === s145 9606 ===
-[[File:s145-t=10.png|800px|s145 10s]]
+[[File:s145-t=2.png|800px|s145 10s]]
 Site: s145
@@ Line 213: / Line 213: @@
 === s732 9391 ===
-[[File:s732-t=10.png|800px|s732 10s]]
+[[File:s732-t=2.png|800px|s732 10s]]
 Site: s732
@@ Line 220: / Line 220: @@
 === s776 9536 ===
-[[File:s776-t=10.png|800px|s776 10s]]
+[[File:s776-t=2.png|800px|s776 10s]]
 Site: s776
 Compute Time: 7min 29s (Exp1)

@@ Line 125: / Line 125: @@
 * [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/plot_fetch_curves.sh plot_fetch_curves.sh] fetches curves from database
 * [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/plot_modified_curves.sh plot_modified_curves.sh] generates curves using input biases
 <code>
@@ Line 140: / Line 141: @@
 ./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/exp2 csv/experiment_2 exp2
 </code>
@@ Line 148: / Line 151: @@
 For the sake of brevity, we only show one plot per site in the highlighted plots below.
-The X,Y data points and all plots generated are available in the Excel spreadsheet : [[File:Hazard_Curve_Comparison_Plots.xlsx]]
+All generated comparison plots are available at [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/comps opensha-cybershake GitHub - Comparison Plots]
-Comparison plots were made by copying out the TXT X,Y datapoints into Excel. We may expand existing OpenSHA Comparison Plot functionality for this purpose. Currently we're able to compare a new run against results fetched from a database, but not multiple modified plots.
+Individual plots and X,Y data is available on GitHub at [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/fetchdb fetchdb] for fetched reference data and [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/tree/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob modprob] for modified probability data.
 === USC 9306 ===

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:35, 7 October 2025
Line 221:		Line 221:
	Site: s776		Site: s776

−	Compute Time:	+	Compute Time: 7min 29s (Exp1)

@@ Line 158: / Line 158: @@
 Site: University of Southern California (USC)
-Compute Time: 1min 7s (90p), 48s (100p), 1min 12s (sa25p), 1min 23s (sa100p)
+Compute Time: 1min 7s (90p), 48s (100p), 1min 12s (sa25p), 1min 23s (sa100p), 6min 4s (Exp1), 48s (Exp2)
 === ALP 9542 ===
-[[File:alp-t=5.png|800px|ALP 3s]]
+[[File:alp-t=5.png|800px|ALP 5s]]
 Site: Antelope (ALP)
@@ Line 182: / Line 182: @@
 === PDE 9663 ===
-[[File:pde-t=10.png|800px|PDE 3s]]
+[[File:pde-t=10.png|800px|PDE 10s]]
 Site: Pardee (PDE)
-Compute Time: 1min 21s (90p), 1min 4s (sa25p), 1min 25s (sa100p)
+Compute Time: 1min 21s (90p), 1min 4s (sa25p), 1min 25s (sa100p), 2min 36s (Exp1)

@@ Line 108: / Line 108: @@
 * SVD
 * PDE
-There is a plot for each site of the periods (K) 2, 3, 5, and 10, for a total of 20 plots.
+There is a plot for each site of the periods (K) 2, 3, 5, and 10, for a total of 40 plots.
 Each figure has the following plot lines
 * The reference using original probabilities (Ref)
-* Where hypocenters are responsible for 90% of the probability (90p)
+* Where hypocenters are responsible for 90% of the probability (90p, Exp1, Exp2)
 * USC and SBSM has additional plot line where hypocenters are responsible for 100% (100p)
 * 25% probability over All San Andreas Events (sa25p)
@@ Line 139: / Line 144: @@
 For the 10p, 90p, and 100p plots, the results are identical to the fetched probabilities. When considering all events across the San Andreas, we see significant impact to PDE and ALP, some impact to SVD, and no visible significant impact to SBSM and USC.
-For the sake of brevity, we won't show all 20 plots here.
+In our follow-up experiments, Experiment 1 (Exp1) and Experiment 2 (Exp2), we did not observe any significant ground motion. This is in spite of selecting CyberShake sites which directly line up with the ends of the faults.
 The X,Y data points and all plots generated are available in the Excel spreadsheet : [[File:Hazard_Curve_Comparison_Plots.xlsx]]

@@ Line 52: / Line 52: @@
 The inputs take X% of hypocenters in preferred direction and doubled their probability, and taken X% of hypocenters in opposite direction and set to 0 to keep overall probabilities balanced.
 Mojave:  Southeast -> Northwest, so the preferred hypocenters are in the southern portion of the fault.
 Coachella: Northwest -> Southeast, so the preferred hypocenters are in the northern portion of the fault.
 * [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_reference_probs.csv USC_reference_probs.csv] : Reference input with same probabilities as fetched from DB for site=USC, run=9306
 * [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv] : 10% hypocenter responsible modified probabilities for site=USC, run=9306
@@ Line 84: / Line 84: @@
 ==== Experiment 1 ====
 * [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/PDE_exp1.csv PDE_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=PDE, run=9663
 * [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_1/s036_exp1.csv s036_exp1.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s036, run=9402
@@ Line 90: / Line 94: @@
 ==== Experiment 2 ====
 * [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/s080_exp2.csv s080_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s080, run=9409
 * [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/experiment_2/s145_exp2.csv s145_exp2.csv] : 90% modified probability site=s145, run=9606

@@ Line 58: / Line 58: @@
 Below are the CSV input files used to generate the results found in the Excel spreadsheet and highlighted plots on this page.
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/USC_reference_probs.csv USC_reference_probs.csv] : Reference input with same probabilities as fetched from DB for site=USC, run=9306
+==== Initial Tests ====
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv] : 10% hypocenter responsible modified probabilities for site=USC, run=9306
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_reference_probs.csv USC_reference_probs.csv] : Reference input with same probabilities as fetched from DB for site=USC, run=9306
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=USC, run=9306
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv] : 10% hypocenter responsible modified probabilities for site=USC, run=9306
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv] : 100% modified probability site=USC, run=9306
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=USC, run=9306
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=USC, run=9306
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv] : 100% modified probability site=USC, run=9306
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa100p.csv USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=USC, run=9306
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv USC_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=USC, run=9306
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=ALP, run=9542
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=ALP, run=9542
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/ALP_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv ALP_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=ALP, run=9542
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/ALP_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv ALP_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=ALP, run=9542
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/ALP_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv ALP_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=ALP, run=9542
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/ALP_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv ALP_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=ALP, run=9542
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=SBSM, run=9320
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=SBSM, run=9320
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv] : 100% modified probability site=SBSM, run=9320
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_100p.csv] : 100% modified probability site=SBSM, run=9320
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/SBSM_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SBSM, run=9320
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SBSM_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SBSM, run=9320
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/SBSM_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SBSM, run=9320
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SBSM_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv SBSM_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SBSM, run=9320
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=SVD, run=9647
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=SVD, run=9647
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/SVD_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv SVD_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SVD_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv SVD_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/SVD_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv SVD_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/SVD_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv SVD_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=PDE, run=9663
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv] : 90% modified probability site=PDE, run=9663
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/PDE_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv PDE_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/PDE_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv PDE_mod_probs_Moj_Coach_sa25p.csv] : 25% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
-* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/all_san_andreas/PDE_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv PDE_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
+* [https://github.com/opensha/opensha-cybershake/blob/master/src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas/PDE_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv PDE_mod_probs_all_Moj_Coach_100p.csv] : 100% modified prob, all San Andreas Events for site=SVD, run=9647
 == Plots ==

@@ Line 105: / Line 105: @@
 ./plot_fetch_curves.sh
-./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/90p csv 90p
+./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/90p csv/initial_tests 90p
-./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/100p csv 100p
+./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/100p csv/initial_tests 100p
-./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/sa25p csv/all_san_andreas sa25p
+./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/sa25p csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas sa25p
-./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/sa100p csv/all_san_andreas sa100p
+./plot_modified_curves.sh modprob/sa100p csv/initial_tests/all_san_andreas sa100p
 </code>