CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019: Difference between revisions
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'''[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br>''' | '''[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br>''' | ||
Italian OEF | |||
- Operational, but only available to civil protection. | |||
- Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society. | |||
Overlapping Windows | |||
- Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics. | |||
- Testing all of the windows at once. | |||
- Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window. | |||
- Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution. | |||
- Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution. | |||
- Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions. | |||
- Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically. | |||
'''Relevant questions:''' | |||
How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? | |||
When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake? | |||
Revision as of 19:32, 15 May 2019
Italian OEF - Operational, but only available to civil protection. - Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.
Overlapping Windows - Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics. - Testing all of the windows at once. - Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window. - Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution. - Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution. - Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions. - Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
Relevant questions: How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
