CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Participants: Andy Michael, Max Werner, David Rhoades, Giuseppe, Phil Maechling and William Savran Italian OEF

• Operational, but only available to civil protection.
• Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.

Overlapping Windows

• Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
• Testing all of the windows at once.
• Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window.
• Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution.
• Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution.
• Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions.
• Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
• Marzocchi et al., 2019 applied method to estimate model performance after some period using power-law model.
• Usage must be considered to guide evaluations.
• For example, multiple time-windows from same start time assume that decision maker needs to make a decision now.

CSEP Workshop Funded!!

Relevant questions:

• How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
• When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
• ETAS without parameter updating versus RJ with updating versus FastETAS.