Difference between revisions of "CSEP2 Community Responses"
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== USGS Aftershock Forecasts == | == USGS Aftershock Forecasts == | ||
| + | Submitted by: Jeanne Hardebeck | ||
Response for the planned USGS routine aftershock forecasting. We will be rolling out Reasenberg & Jones forecasts in late August 2018, with ETAS forecasts to follow. Forecasts will be for aftershocks following M>=5 earthquakes, and smaller events of interest, within the US. | Response for the planned USGS routine aftershock forecasting. We will be rolling out Reasenberg & Jones forecasts in late August 2018, with ETAS forecasts to follow. Forecasts will be for aftershocks following M>=5 earthquakes, and smaller events of interest, within the US. | ||
| Line 68: | Line 69: | ||
== New Zealand Forecasts == | == New Zealand Forecasts == | ||
| + | Submitted by: Matt Gerstenberger | ||
; What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model? | ; What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model? | ||
| Line 103: | Line 105: | ||
: all other short, medium and long-term models. | : all other short, medium and long-term models. | ||
| + | |||
| + | == General Responses == | ||
| + | Submitted by: Warner Marzocchi | ||
| + | |||
| + | ; What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model? | ||
| + | |||
| + | ; Model software requirements? Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code? | ||
| + | |||
| + | ; Object of forecast? Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates? | ||
| + | |||
| + | ; Required data inputs to compute forecast? | ||
| + | |||
| + | ; Authoritative data source for testing forecasts? | ||
| + | |||
| + | ; Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests? | ||
| + | |||
| + | ; Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales? | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Community involvement? competing models? New models/extant CSEP models? | ||
== Global Forecasts == | == Global Forecasts == | ||
Revision as of 21:16, 26 July 2018
Contents
Questionnaire
- What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model?
- Model software requirements? Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code?
- Object of forecast? Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates?
- Required data inputs to compute forecast?
- Authoritative data source for testing forecasts?
- Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests?
- Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales?
- Community involvement? competing models? New models/extant CSEP models?
Responses
These responses will act as living documents that we can refine as time progresses.
USGS Aftershock Forecasts
Submitted by: Jeanne Hardebeck
Response for the planned USGS routine aftershock forecasting. We will be rolling out Reasenberg & Jones forecasts in late August 2018, with ETAS forecasts to follow. Forecasts will be for aftershocks following M>=5 earthquakes, and smaller events of interest, within the US.
- What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model?
- These forecasts are meant to inform the public and decision-makers, not to address any scientific questions. As we evolve from Reasenberg & Jones to ETAS, we will be able to tests these two models against each other.
- Model software requirements
- Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code?
- Forecasts will be computed externally to CSEP. Currently on-demand, but in the process of automating.
- Object of forecast
- Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates?
- Forecast is cast as a PDF of the number of event hypocenters within a spatial
- region, time period, and magnitude range. There is no expectation that this
- PDF is any particular kind of distribution.
- The ETAS forecasts will include something similar to a set of simulated catalogs, but not exactly. The forecasts are based on temporal simulated event sets, while a static spatial kernel is used to spatially distribute the event rate. So there are temporal simulated catalogs. Spatial-temporal simulated catalogs could be created using the spatial kernel, but wouldn't have the full level of spatial correlations of a true ETAS simulation.
- Forecast horizons will range from 1 day to 1 year, and updating will occur frequently. Therefore, many forecasts will overlap, making them non-independent.
- Required data inputs to compute forecast?
- Forecasts will be computed externally to CSEP.
- Authoritative data source for testing forecasts?
- ComCat.
- Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests?
- ??
- Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales?
- ??
- Community involvement
- competing models? New models/extant CSEP models?
- ??
UCERF3
New Zealand Forecasts
Submitted by: Matt Gerstenberger
- What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model?
- Should we continue exploring this model?
- Does the model provide additional information over any other model?
- How much is the variability in performance across magnitude, space and time?
- How does the model perform in low seis vs high seis regions?
- Model software requirements? Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code?
- internal; no idea; either; no; operating in two csep testing centres, with similar in a third
- Object of forecast? Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates?
- hypocenters or epicenters; rates/probs; any forecast horizon or update
- Required data inputs to compute forecast?
- standard eq catalogue: time, lat/lon/depth, mag
- Authoritative data source for testing forecasts?
- standard csep
- Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests?
- standard csep
- Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales?
- understanding spatial variability across models - both within "sequence" and across regions. weeks to multiple years/decades
- exploring retrospective testing to understand variability in performace
- Community involvement? competing models? New models/extant CSEP models?
- all other short, medium and long-term models.
General Responses
Submitted by: Warner Marzocchi
- What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model?
- Model software requirements? Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code?
- Object of forecast? Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates?
- Required data inputs to compute forecast?
- Authoritative data source for testing forecasts?
- Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests?
- Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales?
- Community involvement? competing models? New models/extant CSEP models?
