Difference between revisions of "CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019"

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(Created page with "'''CSEP Working Group Home Page<br>'''")
 
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'''[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br>'''
 
'''[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br>'''
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Italian OEF
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- Operational, but only available to civil protection.
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- Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.
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Overlapping Windows
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- Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
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- Testing all of the windows at once.
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- Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window.
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- Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution.
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- Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution.
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- Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions.
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- Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
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'''Relevant questions:'''
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How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
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When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?

Revision as of 19:32, 15 May 2019

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Italian OEF - Operational, but only available to civil protection. - Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.

Overlapping Windows - Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics. - Testing all of the windows at once. - Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window. - Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution. - Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution. - Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions. - Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.

Relevant questions: How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?