Difference between revisions of "CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019"

From SCECpedia
Jump to navigationJump to search
Line 14: Line 14:
 
* Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
 
* Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
  
'''Relevant questions:'''
+
'''Relevant questions:'''<br>
 
How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
 
How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
 
When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
 
When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?

Revision as of 19:33, 15 May 2019

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Italian OEF

  • Operational, but only available to civil protection.
  • Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.

Overlapping Windows

  • Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
  • Testing all of the windows at once.
  • Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window.
  • Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution.
  • Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution.
  • Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions.
  • Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.

Relevant questions:
How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?