Difference between revisions of "CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019"

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'''Relevant questions:'''<br>
 
'''Relevant questions:'''<br>
How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
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* How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
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* When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?

Revision as of 19:33, 15 May 2019

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Italian OEF

  • Operational, but only available to civil protection.
  • Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.

Overlapping Windows

  • Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
  • Testing all of the windows at once.
  • Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window.
  • Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution.
  • Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution.
  • Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions.
  • Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.

Relevant questions:

  • How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
  • When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?