Difference between revisions of "CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019"

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''Participants: Andy Michael, Max Werner, David Rhoades, Giuseppe, Phil Maechling and William Savran
 
''Participants: Andy Michael, Max Werner, David Rhoades, Giuseppe, Phil Maechling and William Savran
''
+
''<br>
Italian OEF
+
 
 +
<b>Italian OEF</b>
 
* Operational, but only available to civil protection.
 
* Operational, but only available to civil protection.
 
* Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.
 
* Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.
  
Overlapping Windows
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<b>Overlapping Windows</b>
 
* Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
 
* Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
 
* Testing all of the windows at once.
 
* Testing all of the windows at once.
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* For example, multiple time-windows from same start time assume that decision maker needs to make a decision now.
 
* For example, multiple time-windows from same start time assume that decision maker needs to make a decision now.
  
<br><b>CSEP Workshop Funded!!
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<br><b>CSEP Workshop Funded!!</b>
  
  
'''Relevant questions:'''<br>
+
<b>Relevant questions:</b><br>
 
* How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
 
* How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
 
* When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
 
* When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
 
* ETAS without parameter updating versus RJ with updating versus FastETAS.
 
* ETAS without parameter updating versus RJ with updating versus FastETAS.
*
 

Latest revision as of 19:57, 15 May 2019

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Participants: Andy Michael, Max Werner, David Rhoades, Giuseppe, Phil Maechling and William Savran

Italian OEF

  • Operational, but only available to civil protection.
  • Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.

Overlapping Windows

  • Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
  • Testing all of the windows at once.
  • Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window.
  • Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution.
  • Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution.
  • Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions.
  • Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
  • Marzocchi et al., 2019 applied method to estimate model performance after some period using power-law model.
  • Usage must be considered to guide evaluations.
  • For example, multiple time-windows from same start time assume that decision maker needs to make a decision now.


CSEP Workshop Funded!!


Relevant questions:

  • How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
  • When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
  • ETAS without parameter updating versus RJ with updating versus FastETAS.