Difference between revisions of "CyberShake Study 24.8"

From SCECpedia
Jump to navigationJump to search
Line 97: Line 97:
  
 
From Study 18.8, we looked at disaggregations for s3430, s3446, and SJO at 1e-3 (1000 yr), 4e-4 (2500 yr), and 1e-4 (10000 yr) probability levels, at 2 and 10 seconds.  We list the top 3 contributing sources from the southern SAF, their magnitude ranges, and their contributing percentages.
 
From Study 18.8, we looked at disaggregations for s3430, s3446, and SJO at 1e-3 (1000 yr), 4e-4 (2500 yr), and 1e-4 (10000 yr) probability levels, at 2 and 10 seconds.  We list the top 3 contributing sources from the southern SAF, their magnitude ranges, and their contributing percentages.
 +
 +
The only significant contributions are for site s3446 at 10 second period.  Those come from large events, with median magnitude 7.85 or higher.
  
 
site s3430
 
site s3430

Revision as of 22:13, 16 October 2023

CyberShake Study 24.1 is an upcoming study in Northern California which includes deterministic low-frequency (0-1 Hz) and stochastic high-frequency (1-50 Hz) simulations. We will use the Graves & Pitarka (2022) rupture generator and the high frequency modules from the SCEC Broadband Platform v22.4.

Status

This study is in the planning phase. We hope to begin this study in January 2024.

Data Products

Science Goals

The science goals for this study are:

  • To perform an updated broadband study for the greater Bay Area.
  • To use an updated rupture generator and improved velocity model from Study 18.8.
  • To use the same parameters as in Study 22.12 when possible to make comparisons between the studies simple.

Technical Goals

The technical goals for this study are:

  • Use Frontier for the SGTs and Frontera for the post-processing and high-frequency calculations.
  • Use a modified approach for the production database, to improve performance.

Sites

For this study, we chose to focus on a smaller region than in Study 18.8. Starting with the Study 18.8 region, we selected a smaller (180 km x 100 km) box extending roughly from San Jose to Santa Rosa, containing 315 sites.

Study 24 1 site map.png

Ruptures to Include

Historically, we have determined which ruptures to include in a CyberShake run by calculating the distance between the site and the closest part of the rupture surface. If that distance is less than 200 km, we then include all ruptures which take place on that surface, including ruptures which may extend much farther away from the site than 200 km.

For Northern California sites, this means that sites around San Jose and south include southern San Andreas events (events which rupture the northernmost segment of the southern San Andreas) within 200 km. Since there are some UCERF2 ruptures which extend from the Parkfield segment all the way down to Bombay Beach, the simulation volumes for some of these Northern California sites cover most of the state. This was the case for Study 18.8 (sample volumes can be seen on this page). This required tiling together 3 3D models and a background 1D model.

To simplify the velocity model and reduce the volumes, we are investigating omitting southern San Andreas events from this study.

Source Contribution Curves

Below are source contribution curves for 3 sites: s3430 (southwest corner of the study region), s3446 (southeast corner of the study region), and SJO (San Jose). In general, the sSAF events are about the 3rd largest contributor at long periods and medium-to-long return periods.

Site 2 sec 3 sec 5 sec 10 sec
s3430
S3430 run6408 2sec contributions.png
S3430 run6408 3sec contributions.png
S3430 run6408 5sec contributions.png
S3430 run6408 10sec contributions.png
s3446
S3446 run6452 2sec contributions.png
S3446 run6452 3sec contributions.png
S3446 run6452 5sec contributions.png
S3446 run6452 10sec contributions.png
SJO
SJO run6987 2sec contributions.png
SJO run6987 3sec contributions.png
SJO run6987 5sec contributions.png
SJO run6987 10sec contributions.png

We also looked at the source contributions for these 3 sites from ASK 2014. In general, the sSAF events play a reduced role compared to the CyberShake results.

Site 2 sec 3 sec 5 sec 10 sec
s3430
S3430 ASK2014 2sec contributions.png
S3430 ASK2014 3sec contributions.png
S3430 ASK2014 5sec contributions.png
S3430 ASK2014 10sec contributions.png
s3446
S3446 ASK2014 2sec contributions.png
S3446 ASK2014 3sec contributions.png
S3446 ASK2014 5sec contributions.png
S3446 ASK2014 10sec contributions.png
SJO
SJO ASK2014 2sec contributions.png
SJO ASK2014 3sec contributions.png
SJO ASK2014 5sec contributions.png
SJO ASK2014 10sec contributions.png

Disaggregations

From Study 18.8, we looked at disaggregations for s3430, s3446, and SJO at 1e-3 (1000 yr), 4e-4 (2500 yr), and 1e-4 (10000 yr) probability levels, at 2 and 10 seconds. We list the top 3 contributing sources from the southern SAF, their magnitude ranges, and their contributing percentages.

The only significant contributions are for site s3446 at 10 second period. Those come from large events, with median magnitude 7.85 or higher.

site s3430

Period 1e-3 4e-4 1e-4
2 sec 80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%
10 sec 86 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB, M7.65-8.25), 0.01%
89 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB+SSB+BG+CO, M7.75-8.45), 0.01%
85 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM, M7.55-8.15), <0.01%
89 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB+SSB+BG+CO, M7.75-8.45), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%

site s3446

Period 1e-3 4e-4 1e-4
2 sec 84 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM, M7.45-7.95), <0.01%
89 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB+SSB+BG+CO, M7.75-8.45), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%
10 sec 85 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM, M7.55-8.15), 6.83%
86 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB, M7.65-8.25), 4.18%
84 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM, M7.45-7.95), 1.53%
85 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM, M7.55-8.15), 4.27%
86 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB, M7.65-8.25), 3.09%
89 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB+SSB+BG+CO, M7.75-8.45), 1.08%
86 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB, M7.65-8.25), 1.19%
85 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM, M7.55-8.15), 1.19%
89 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB+SSB+BG+CO, M7.75-8.45), 0.55%

site SJO

Period 1e-3 4e-4 1e-4
2 sec 80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%
10 sec 85 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM, M7.55-8.15), 0.09%
86 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB, M7.65-8.25), 0.07%
89 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB+SSB+BG+CO, M7.75-8.45), 0.05%
89 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB+SSB+BG+CO, M7.75-8.45), 0.01%
88 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB+SSB+BG, M7.75-8.35), 0.01%
86 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC+BB+NM+SM+NSB, M7.65-8.25), <0.01%
80 (S. San Andreas;PK, M5.65-6.35), <0.01%
81 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH, M6.75-7.35), <0.01%
82 (S. San Andreas;PK+CH+CC, M7.15-7.65), <0.01%

Velocity Model

Rupture Generator

High-frequency codes

Updates and Enhancements

Output Data Products

Computational and Data Estimates

Lessons Learned

Stress Test

Events During Study

Performance Metrics

Production Checklist

Presentations, Posters, and Papers

References