Difference between revisions of "CSEP Minutes 02-12-2020"

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(Created page with "'''CSEP Working Group Home Page<br>''' ''Participants:'' W. Savran, M. Werner, D. Rhoades, A. Strader, N. Field, P. Maechling '''Rise Overview''' *...")
 
 
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''Participants:'' W. Savran, M. Werner, D. Rhoades, A. Strader, N. Field, P. Maechling
 
''Participants:'' W. Savran, M. Werner, D. Rhoades, A. Strader, N. Field, P. Maechling
 
  
 
'''Rise Overview'''
 
'''Rise Overview'''
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* Additional modelers are encouraged to participate in the experiment
 
* Additional modelers are encouraged to participate in the experiment
 
* Model types include ETAS, Coulomb-based forecasts, and Bayesian model (Inlabru from Edinburgh Group).
 
* Model types include ETAS, Coulomb-based forecasts, and Bayesian model (Inlabru from Edinburgh Group).
* SCEC will provide the toolkit used to evaluate forecasts
+
* There are practical issues with using slip models for Coulomb forecasting, such as data source and whether modelers can do pre-processing to them.
* Individual testing centers are responsible for implementing the experiments
+
* SCEC will provide the toolkit used to evaluate forecasts.
 +
* Individual testing centers are responsible for implementing the experiments.
 
* Toolkit will be released to group at the middle June RISE workshop in Potsdam/Naples.
 
* Toolkit will be released to group at the middle June RISE workshop in Potsdam/Naples.
*
+
* SCEC will demonstrate toolkit by showing end-to-end processing of global forecast and short-term forecast.
 +
* California Forecast will be presented at the hopeful CSEP workshop.
 +
 
 +
'''Whitepaper'''
 +
* NSF is soliciting community feedback for competition of the SCEC core funding.
 +
* CSEP should provide a 3pg white-paper arguing for continued support.
 +
* Whitepaper should pull from Jordan et al., 2011 and Schorlemmer et al., 2018.
 +
* Focus on scientific questions that can be address through prospective testing should be emphasized for NSF.
 +
* These ideas have been outlined in [[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PoamDSogu6IFa7Gslx5QNHhDqPqMJBOSYDUmXdqmPqU/edit?usp=sharing| Grand Challenges document]] prepared by Dave Jackson.

Latest revision as of 21:50, 12 February 2020

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Participants: W. Savran, M. Werner, D. Rhoades, A. Strader, N. Field, P. Maechling

Rise Overview

  • Two major experiments being planned:
(1) Italian short-term OEF focused experiment
(2) Global experiment including both time-independent and time-dependent forecasts
  • Additional experiments involving high-resolution catalogs and Europe-wide testing region discussed.
  • ~10 PhD students and PostDocs involved in the project
  • Additional modelers are encouraged to participate in the experiment
  • Model types include ETAS, Coulomb-based forecasts, and Bayesian model (Inlabru from Edinburgh Group).
  • There are practical issues with using slip models for Coulomb forecasting, such as data source and whether modelers can do pre-processing to them.
  • SCEC will provide the toolkit used to evaluate forecasts.
  • Individual testing centers are responsible for implementing the experiments.
  • Toolkit will be released to group at the middle June RISE workshop in Potsdam/Naples.
  • SCEC will demonstrate toolkit by showing end-to-end processing of global forecast and short-term forecast.
  • California Forecast will be presented at the hopeful CSEP workshop.

Whitepaper

  • NSF is soliciting community feedback for competition of the SCEC core funding.
  • CSEP should provide a 3pg white-paper arguing for continued support.
  • Whitepaper should pull from Jordan et al., 2011 and Schorlemmer et al., 2018.
  • Focus on scientific questions that can be address through prospective testing should be emphasized for NSF.
  • These ideas have been outlined in [Grand Challenges document] prepared by Dave Jackson.