Difference between revisions of "ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence"

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(Add ETAS enqueue and build time data)
 
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−
'''NOTE: This document is under construction'''
 
−
 
 
== Overview ==
 
== Overview ==
 
The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008).
 
The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008).
Line 28: Line 26:
 
== Config Builder ==
 
== Config Builder ==
 
Get time in milliseconds for the start time of your event with date (GNU coreutils) 8.30 on Expanse.
 
Get time in milliseconds for the start time of your event with date (GNU coreutils) 8.30 on Expanse.
−
 
  
 
E.g. Epoch for Tue May 12 2026 3:19PM.  
 
E.g. Epoch for Tue May 12 2026 3:19PM.  
Line 48: Line 45:
 
       --num-simulations $NUM_SIM \
 
       --num-simulations $NUM_SIM \
 
       --hpc-site TACC_FRONTERA \
 
       --hpc-site TACC_FRONTERA \
 +
      --duration-years 10 \
 
       --output-dir $ETAS_SIM_DIR/scenarios/frontera-scenario-fss${FSS_IDX}-n${NUM_NODE}-s${NUM_SIM}-t${EPOCH_MS}
 
       --output-dir $ETAS_SIM_DIR/scenarios/frontera-scenario-fss${FSS_IDX}-n${NUM_NODE}-s${NUM_SIM}-t${EPOCH_MS}
  
Line 53: Line 51:
 
Use the appropriate <code>hpc-site</code> for the corresponding system.
 
Use the appropriate <code>hpc-site</code> for the corresponding system.
 
<pre>Expanse = SDSC_EXPANSE, Discovery = USC_CARC, Stampede3 = TACC_STAMPEDE3, Frontera = TACC_FRONTERA</pre>
 
<pre>Expanse = SDSC_EXPANSE, Discovery = USC_CARC, Stampede3 = TACC_STAMPEDE3, Frontera = TACC_FRONTERA</pre>
 +
 +
'''Recommended Config:''' For all future scenarios, use 20k simulated catalogs (for stable results) for a 1 year duration over 100 compute nodes.
  
  
Line 116: Line 116:
  
 
=== ShakeMap ===
 
=== ShakeMap ===
−
[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-shakemap.png|500px|frameless]]
+
[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-pga-shakemap.png|500px|frameless]]
  
 
'''Fig 2. Rupture 199642 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGA)'''
 
'''Fig 2. Rupture 199642 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGA)'''
  
−
The above ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with   
+
The above PGA ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with   
−
[https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/shakemap/map_info.html the following map configuration parameters].
+
[https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/shakemap/pga/map_info.html the following map configuration parameters].
 +
 
 +
[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-pgv-shakemap.png|500px|frameless]]
 +
 
 +
'''Fig 3. Rupture 199642 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGV)'''
 +
 
 +
The above PGV ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with 
 +
[https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/shakemap/pgv/map_info.html the following map configuration parameters].
  
  
 
=== ETAS Results ===
 
=== ETAS Results ===
  
−
We've attempted to run 100k catalogs across Stampede3, Frontera, and Expanse.
+
We've attempted to run 100k catalogs with 14 compute nodes across Stampede3, Frontera, and Expanse.
 
However, we reached a 24h time out and reached 17k on Expanse and 7k on Stampede3.
 
However, we reached a 24h time out and reached 17k on Expanse and 7k on Stampede3.
−
We increased the compute resources for Frontera and are currently computing a 50k simulation there.
+
We ran out of memory on Frontera attempting to run 50k simulations with 128 compute nodes, and reached 27k.
 +
 
 +
See the Frontera simulations link below for the most accurate results.
  
 +
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/frontera-s27036/index.html Frontera (27,036 simulations)]
 +
** 128 nodes, 160 GB/node, 20 threads
 +
** Enqueue Time: 20.95 hours
 +
** Build Time: 10.22 hours
 +
** Attempted 50,000 simulations. Exited early due to Out of Memory Error.
 
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/expanse-s17100/index.html Expanse (17,100 simulations)]
 
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/expanse-s17100/index.html Expanse (17,100 simulations)]
 +
** 14 nodes, 200 GB/node, 40 threads
 +
** Enqueue Time: 3.60 hours
 +
** Build Time: 24.00 hours
 +
** Attempted 100,000 simulations. Exited early due to Max Time Exceeded (24h).
 
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/stampede3-s7000/index.html Stampede3 (7000 simulations)]
 
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/stampede3-s7000/index.html Stampede3 (7000 simulations)]
−
* Frontera (50,000 simulations) TODO: Insert results after simulation completes
+
** 14 nodes, 144 GB/node, 18 threads
 +
** Enqueue Time: 6.37 minutes
 +
** Build Time: 24.00 hours
 +
** Attempted 100,000 simulations. Exited early due to Max Time Exceeded (24h).
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
== FSS Rupture 198678, M7.8047805, Start 2026/05/12, 1 yr ==
 +
[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss198678-scec-vdo.png|500px|frameless]]
 +
 
 +
'''Fig 4. Rupture 198678 highlighted in red'''
 +
 
 +
Above is a [[SCEC VDO]] visualization of Rupture 198678, which is comprised of the following subsections:
 +
<pre>
 +
Rupture 198678, M=7.8047805
 +
horizontal distance to search location: 5.334416
 +
Subsections:
 +
1844. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 7
 +
1845. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 8
 +
1846. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 9
 +
1847. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 10
 +
1848. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 11
 +
1849. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 12
 +
1850. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 13
 +
1851. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 14
 +
1944. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 0
 +
1945. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 1
 +
1946. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 2
 +
1947. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 3
 +
1948. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 4
 +
1949. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 5
 +
1852. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 0
 +
1853. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 1
 +
1854. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 2
 +
1855. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 3
 +
2114. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 2
 +
2113. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 1
 +
2112. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 0
 +
1964. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 7
 +
1963. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 6
 +
1962. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 5
 +
1961. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 4
 +
1960. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 3
 +
1959. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 2
 +
1958. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 1
 +
1957. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 0
 +
1798. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 0
 +
1799. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 1
 +
1800. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 2
 +
1801. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 3
 +
1802. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 4
 +
1803. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 5
 +
1804. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 6
 +
1805. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 7
 +
1806. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 8
 +
1807. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 9
 +
1808. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 10
 +
1809. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 11
 +
upper depth: 0.7736225
 +
width: 14.392266
 +
strike: 301.55923
 +
dip: 81.441475
 +
rake: 170.07281
 +
First location: 33.38388, -115.75283, 0.39960
 +
Last location: 34.52804, -118.05582, 0.00000
 +
</pre>
 +
 
 +
=== ShakeMap ===
 +
[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pga-shakemap.png|500px|frameless]]
 +
 
 +
'''Fig 5. Rupture 198678 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGA)'''
 +
 
 +
The above PGA ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with 
 +
[https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss198678/shakemap/pga/map_info.html the following map configuration parameters].
 +
 
 +
[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pgv-shakemap.png|500px|frameless]]
 +
 
 +
'''Fig 6. Rupture 198678 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGV)'''
 +
 
 +
The above PGV ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with 
 +
[https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss198678/shakemap/pgv/map_info.html the following map configuration parameters].
 +
 
 +
 
 +
=== ETAS Results ===
 +
Ran 25k catalogs on Frontera with 100 nodes.
 +
 
 +
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss198678/frontera-s25204/index.html Frontera (25,204 simulations)]
 +
** 100 nodes, 160 GB/node, 20 threads
 +
** Enqueue Time: 29.67 hours
 +
** Build Time: 12.08 hours
 +
** Attempted 50,000 simulations. Exited early due to Out of Memory Error.

Latest revision as of 00:11, 19 May 2026

Overview

The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008). See the ShakeOut TAG Proposal for more information.

This document collects findings for aftershock sequences calculating the likelihood of M7 aftershocks in the Los Angeles Basin. Each document section corresponds to a rupture from UCERF3. UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.

Rupture Search

Instead of manually searching for a point source, we select a rupture from UCERF3 that matches the scenario description and use that as the trigger.

We select a predefined multi-fault rupture, not a hypocenter. When we select a rupture index, we are selecting a combination of subsections that rupture together. The model asserts that if those subsections rupture together, the event would have that magnitude (over that total area).

We do so using the u3etas_rupture_search.sh tool. The tool is available for use locally via Docker sceccode/ucerf3_jup or on HPC systems SDSC Expanse, TACC Frontera and Stampede3, and CARC Discovery.

Below is an example of how we'd search for candidate ruptures within a 10.0 km search radius of a specified coordinate at the southernmost end of the San Andreas fault. 

u3etas_rupture_search.sh --latitude 33.351 --longitude -115.711 \
	--radius 10 --min-mag 7.80 --max-mag 7.81 \
	$ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip > target/u3etas_rupture_search


Config Builder

Get time in milliseconds for the start time of your event with date (GNU coreutils) 8.30 on Expanse.

E.g. Epoch for Tue May 12 2026 3:19PM.

Note that this command doesn't work on macOS, use gdate instead. 

date +%s%3N = 1778624347993

See UCERF3-ETAS Measurements for detailed instructions on how to build configurations and run simulations on each HPC system. Only difference is that we will use the following u3etas_config_builder.sh command instead of u3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh, as we're not using an event from the USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat). 

EPOCH_MS=1778624347993 FSS_IDX=199642 NUM_NODE=128 NUM_SIM=50000

ETAS_MEM_GB=32 u3etas_config_builder.sh \
       --start-time $EPOCH_MS \
       --fss-index $FSS_IDX \
       --nodes $NUM_NODE \
       --num-simulations $NUM_SIM \
       --hpc-site TACC_FRONTERA \
       --duration-years 10 \
       --output-dir $ETAS_SIM_DIR/scenarios/frontera-scenario-fss${FSS_IDX}-n${NUM_NODE}-s${NUM_SIM}-t${EPOCH_MS}

Use the appropriate hpc-site for the corresponding system. 

Expanse = SDSC_EXPANSE, Discovery = USC_CARC, Stampede3 = TACC_STAMPEDE3, Frontera = TACC_FRONTERA

Recommended Config: For all future scenarios, use 20k simulated catalogs (for stable results) for a 1 year duration over 100 compute nodes.


FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr

Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png

Fig 1. Rupture 199642 highlighted in red

Above is a SCEC VDO visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections: 

Rupture 199642, M=7.801467
	horizontal distance to search location: 5.334416
	Subsections:
		1842. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 5
		1843. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 6
		1844. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 7
		1845. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 8
		1846. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 9
		1847. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 10
		1848. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 11
		1849. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 12
		1850. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 13
		1851. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 14
		1944. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 0
		1945. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 1
		1946. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 2
		1947. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 3
		1948. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 4
		1949. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 5
		1852. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 0
		1853. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 1
		1854. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 2
		1855. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 3
		1856. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 4
		1857. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 5
		1858. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 6
		1859. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 7
		1860. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 8
		1861. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 9
		1862. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 10
		1863. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 11
		1798. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 0
		1799. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 1
		1800. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 2
		1801. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 3
		1802. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 4
		1803. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 5
		1804. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 6
		1805. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 7
		1806. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 8
		1807. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 9
		1808. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 10
		1809. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 11
	upper depth: 1.125095
	width: 14.1712675
	strike: 119.94974
	dip: 83.48344
	rake: 179.76993
	First location: 34.57796, -118.18449, 0.00000
	Last location: 33.38388, -115.75283, 0.39960


ShakeMap

Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-pga-shakemap.png

Fig 2. Rupture 199642 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGA)

The above PGA ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with the following map configuration parameters.

Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-pgv-shakemap.png

Fig 3. Rupture 199642 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGV)

The above PGV ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with the following map configuration parameters.


ETAS Results

We've attempted to run 100k catalogs with 14 compute nodes across Stampede3, Frontera, and Expanse. However, we reached a 24h time out and reached 17k on Expanse and 7k on Stampede3. We ran out of memory on Frontera attempting to run 50k simulations with 128 compute nodes, and reached 27k.

See the Frontera simulations link below for the most accurate results.

  • Frontera (27,036 simulations)
    • 128 nodes, 160 GB/node, 20 threads
    • Enqueue Time: 20.95 hours
    • Build Time: 10.22 hours
    • Attempted 50,000 simulations. Exited early due to Out of Memory Error.
  • Expanse (17,100 simulations)
    • 14 nodes, 200 GB/node, 40 threads
    • Enqueue Time: 3.60 hours
    • Build Time: 24.00 hours
    • Attempted 100,000 simulations. Exited early due to Max Time Exceeded (24h).
  • Stampede3 (7000 simulations)
    • 14 nodes, 144 GB/node, 18 threads
    • Enqueue Time: 6.37 minutes
    • Build Time: 24.00 hours
    • Attempted 100,000 simulations. Exited early due to Max Time Exceeded (24h).


FSS Rupture 198678, M7.8047805, Start 2026/05/12, 1 yr

Shakeout-2.0-fss198678-scec-vdo.png

Fig 4. Rupture 198678 highlighted in red

Above is a SCEC VDO visualization of Rupture 198678, which is comprised of the following subsections: 

Rupture 198678, M=7.8047805
	horizontal distance to search location: 5.334416
	Subsections:
		1844. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 7
		1845. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 8
		1846. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 9
		1847. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 10
		1848. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 11
		1849. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 12
		1850. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 13
		1851. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 14
		1944. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 0
		1945. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 1
		1946. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 2
		1947. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 3
		1948. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 4
		1949. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 5
		1852. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 0
		1853. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 1
		1854. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 2
		1855. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 3
		2114. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 2
		2113. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 1
		2112. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 0
		1964. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 7
		1963. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 6
		1962. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 5
		1961. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 4
		1960. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 3
		1959. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 2
		1958. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 1
		1957. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 0
		1798. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 0
		1799. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 1
		1800. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 2
		1801. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 3
		1802. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 4
		1803. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 5
		1804. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 6
		1805. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 7
		1806. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 8
		1807. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 9
		1808. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 10
		1809. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 11
	upper depth: 0.7736225
	width: 14.392266
	strike: 301.55923
	dip: 81.441475
	rake: 170.07281
	First location: 33.38388, -115.75283, 0.39960
	Last location: 34.52804, -118.05582, 0.00000

ShakeMap

Shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pga-shakemap.png

Fig 5. Rupture 198678 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGA)

The above PGA ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with the following map configuration parameters.

Shakeout-2.0-fss198678-pgv-shakemap.png

Fig 6. Rupture 198678 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGV)

The above PGV ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with the following map configuration parameters.


ETAS Results

Ran 25k catalogs on Frontera with 100 nodes.

  • Frontera (25,204 simulations)
    • 100 nodes, 160 GB/node, 20 threads
    • Enqueue Time: 29.67 hours
    • Build Time: 12.08 hours
    • Attempted 50,000 simulations. Exited early due to Out of Memory Error.
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