Difference between revisions of "Moved:SCEC UGMS Committee Meeting 4"

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{|
 
{|
 
! width=" 50px" align="left" |  
 
! width=" 50px" align="left" |  
−
! width="450px" align="left" |
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! width="550px" align="left" |
 
! width="200px" align="left" |
 
! width="200px" align="left" |
 
|-valign="top"
 
|-valign="top"
 
| 10:00
 
| 10:00
 
| Welcome and introductions
 
| Welcome and introductions
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 10:15
 +
| Introductory Remarks and Meeting Agenda
 +
| C.B. Crouse
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 10:30
 +
| New Code Cycle (Project 17, BSSC Issue Teams, ASCE 7 SSC)
 +
| C.B. Crouse
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 10:45
 +
| Update on SCEC Progress to Generate Short Period (T<2 sec) Motions
 +
| Phil Maechling / Tom Jordan
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 11:30
 +
| Review of Revised Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake Response Spectra (MCER) at 14 Southern California Sites (T = 2 – 10 sec)
 +
| Kevin Milner
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 12:00
 +
| Lunch
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 13:00
 +
| Southern California MCER Sa(T) maps – CyberShake vs. 2013 NGA West2<br>- CyberShake & NGA West2 Sa maps for T = 3, 5, & 10 sec<br>- Ratio Maps (CyberShake/NGA West2) for each T<br>- Discussion
 +
| Kevin Milner
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 14:00
 +
| Effect of Near-Surface Geology<br>- SCEC Thick Surface Layer with Constant Material Properties vs. Realistic Model with Depth-Dependent Material Properties<br>- Results of 1-D Site Response with Both Models<br>- Discussion
 
| C.B. Crouse
 
| C.B. Crouse
 
|-valign="top"
 
|-valign="top"
−
| 17:30
+
| 14:30
 +
| Break
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 14:45
 +
| Technical Issues, Logistics, & Schedule for Producing Long Period MCER Maps for L.A. Region in Short Term (e.g., Possible supplement to ASCE 7-16 for City of L.A.) and Long Term (2021 NEHRP & 2022 ASCE 7)
 +
| C.B. Crouse
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 15:00
 +
| Future Work for CyberShake
 +
| Tom Jordan
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 15:15
 +
| Results to be Presented and Tentative Dates for Next UGMS Meeting
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 15:30
 
| Adjourn
 
| Adjourn
 
|
 
|
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|
 
|
 
|-valign="top"
 
|-valign="top"
−
|<u>Member Attendees (in person)</u><br>C.B. Crouse - chair<br>Tom Jordan<br>Nico Luco<br>Bob Bachman<br>John Hooper<br>Jacobo Bielak<br>Charlie Kirchner<br>Marty Hudson<br>Marshall Lew<br>
+
|<u>Member Attendees (in person)</u><br>C.B. Crouse - chair<br>John Anderson<br>Rob Graves<br>John Hooper<br>Marty Hudson<br>Tom Jordan<br>Charlie Kircher<br>Nico Luco<br>
−
|<u>Member Attendees (remotely)</u><br>Ron Hamburger<br>Art Frankel<br>Norm Abrahamson<br>Rob Graves<br>Farzad Naeim<br>Curt Haselton<br>
+
|<u>Member Attendees (remotely)</u><br>Jack Baker<br>Jacobo Bielak<br>Art Frankel<br>
−
|<u>Members Absent</u><br>Paul Somerville<br>Jack Baker<br>John Anderson<br>
+
|<u>Members Absent</u><br>Norm Abrahamson<br>Bob Bachman<br>Ron Hamburger<br>Curt Haselton<br>Lew Marshall<br>Farzad Naeim<br>Paul Somerville<br>
−
|<u>Observers</u><br>Andreas Skarlatoudis<br>Fabio Silva<br>Kevin Milner<br>Brad Aagaard<br>Nenad Bijelic<br>Scott Callaghan<br>Greg Deierlein<br>En-Jui Lee<br>Ting Lin<br>Ricardo Taborda
+
|<u>Observers</u><br>Brad Aagaard<br>Domniki Asimaki<br>Nenad Bijelic<br>Scott Callaghan<br>Tran Huynh<br>Ting Lin<br>Phil Maechling<br>Kevin Milner<br>Morgan Moschetti<br>Kim Olsen<br>Sanaz Rezaeian<br>Andreas Skarlatoudis<br>Ricardo Taborda<br>
−
|}
 
−
 
 
−
== Study Sites ==
 
−
[[Image:MCER_Sites_2014.png|right|350px]]
 
−
We are calculating MCER results for 14 sites, available in a KML file
 
−
Image to the right shows the location of the MCER 2014 study sites. These sites can be plotted using the following KML file:
 
−
*[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/UC_sites.kml MCER 2014 Study Sites (Google Earth KML Format)]. (KML file)
 
−
 
 
−
Near surface information about these sites includes Vs30, Z1.0, Z2.5 Values. These values are used in GMPE calculations for these sites. Site names, locations, and near surface values are listed in the following file.
 
−
*[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/CyberShake/MCER_sites_2014_Vs30_Z1.0_Z2.5.csv Site List with Vs30 Information] (CSV File)
 
−
 
 
−
== Results ==
 
−
 
 
−
Plots for each of the 14 sites are available in the following table.
 
−
 
 
−
{| border="1"
 
−
! Site
 
−
! Full name
 
−
! Probabilistic MCER
 
−
! Deterministic MCER
 
−
! Combined MCER results
 
−
! Overall MCER results
 
−
|-
 
−
! CCP
 
−
! Century City Plaza
 
−
| [[File:CCP_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:CCP_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:CCP_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:CCP_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! COO
 
−
! Compton
 
−
| [[File:COO_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:COO_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:COO_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:COO_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! LADT
 
−
! Los Angeles Downtown
 
−
| [[File:LADT_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:LADT_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:LADT_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:LADT_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! LAPD
 
−
! Lake Palmdale
 
−
| [[File:LAPD_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:LAPD_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:LAPD_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:LAPD_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! P22
 
−
! P22
 
−
| [[File:P22_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:P22_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:P22_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:P22_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! PAS
 
−
! Pasadena
 
−
| [[File:PAS_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:PAS_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:PAS_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:PAS_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! s429
 
−
! s429
 
−
| [[File:s429_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s429_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s429_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s429_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! s603
 
−
! s603
 
−
| [[File:s603_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s603_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s603_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s603_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! s684
 
−
! s684
 
−
| [[File:s684_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s684_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s684_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s684_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! s758
 
−
! s758
 
−
| [[File:s758_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s758_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s758_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:s758_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! SBSM
 
−
! San Bernardino Strong Motion
 
−
| [[File:SBSM_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:SBSM_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:SBSM_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:SBSM_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! SMCA
 
−
! Santa Monica Civic Auditorium
 
−
| [[File:SMCA_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:SMCA_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:SMCA_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:SMCA_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! STNI
 
−
! 710/90 Interchange
 
−
| [[File:STNI_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:STNI_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:STNI_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:STNI_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! WNGC
 
−
! Whitter Narrows Golf Course
 
−
| [[File:WNGC_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:WNGC_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:WNGC_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
| [[File:WNGC_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
−
|}
 
−
 
 
−
 
 
−
More details about each plot type are provided below.
 
−
 
 
−
 
 
−
=== Probabilistic MCER Results ===
 
−
[[Image:UGMS map.jpg|right|350px]]
 
−
 
 
−
CyberShake probabilistic MCER results for the 14 sites. This also contains comparable RotD100 results for the 2008 and 2014 NGAs.
 
−
*[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/Probabilistic_RTGM_2014_10_09.xlsx Probabilistic MCER Results]. (Excel xlsx file)
 
−
 
 
−
This zip file contains pseudo spectral velocity plots for the probabilistic results.
 
−
*[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/Probabilistic_plots.zip Probabilistic MCER Plots]. (815Kb Zip File containing PNG images)
 
−
 
 
−
'''Metadata for these results include:'''
 
−
*CyberShake Model: Study 14.2
 
−
*Velocity Model: CVM-S4.26
 
−
*Earthquake Rupture Forecast: UCERF2
 
−
*Rupture Generator: GP 2010
 
−
*Background Seismicity: None
 
−
*RotD100 Software: Modified BBP RotD50
 
−
*GMPE 2008 GMRotI50 to RotD100 conversion factors: See spreadsheet
 
−
*GMPE 2014 RotD50 to RotD100 conversion factors: See spreadsheet
 
−
 
 
−
==== Disaggregation Plots ====
 
−
 
 
−
We disaggregated the CyberShake and NGA hazard curves at 3 seconds and plotted the top 10 contributors for each site.  These plots are available here: [http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/hazard_decomposition_plots.zip Disaggregation Plots]
 
−
 
 
−
==== Background Seismicity Plots ====
 
−
 
 
−
To determine the impact of background seismicity, we calculated the contributions of on-fault and background seismicity to the NGA hazard curves.  These plots are available here: [http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/back_seis_contribution_plots.zip Background Seismicity Contribution Plots]
 
−
 
 
−
 
 
−
=== Deterministic MCER Results ===
 
−
[[Image:Zoomed map.png|right|350px]]
 
−
 
 
−
CyberShake deterministic MCER results for the 14 sites, along with comparable results for the 2008 and 2014 NGA models.
 
−
*[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/Deterministic_2014_10_15.xls Deterministic MCER Results]. (Excel xls file)
 
−
 
 
−
This zip file contains pseudo spectral velocity plots for the deterministic results.
 
−
*[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/Deterministic_plots.zip Deterministic MCER Plots].  (850Kb zip file containing PNG images)
 
−
 
 
−
'''Metadata for these results include:'''
 
−
*CyberShake Model: Study 14.2
 
−
*Velocity Model: CVM-S4.26
 
−
*Earthquake Rupture Forecast: UCERF2
 
−
*Rupture Generator: GP 2010
 
−
*Background Seismicity: None
 
−
*RotD100 Software: Modified BBP RotD50
 
−
*GMPE 2008 GMRotI50 to RotD100 conversion factors: See probabilistic spreadsheet
 
−
*GMPE 2014 RotD50 to RotD100 conversion factors: See probabilistic spreadsheet
 
−
 
 
−
=== Combined MCER Plots ===
 
−
 
 
−
From the probabilistic and deterministic results, we have produced combined MCER plots of two types, both plotting PSV at periods from 1-10 sec, using the probabilistic and deterministic results previously calculated for the 14 sites identified by the Utilization Committee.
 
−
 
 
−
Type A contains 5 curves for each site and are available in a zip file here: [http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/all_plots.zip All combined plots] (~400KB zip file containing PDF, PNG, and TXT files)
 
−
 
 
−
# average of the probabilistic NGAs (2014) without Idriss.  This was obtained by averaging the 4 NGA hazard curves, then convolving with the fragility function.
 
−
# average of the deterministic NGAs (2014) without Idriss
 
−
# probabilistic MCER for Cybershake
 
−
# deterministic Cybershake
 
−
# ASCE 7-10 Det Lower Limit
 
−
 
 
−
Type B contains 3 curves for each site and are available in a zip file here: [http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/MCER_plots.zip MCER combined plots] (~300KB zip file containing PDF, PNG, and TXT files)
 
−
 
 
−
# CyberShake: lower of probabilistic MCER and (higher of deterministic and ASCE deterministic lower limit).  For CyberShake, the probabilistic is always lower than the deterministic.
 
−
# NGA (2014): lower of probabilistic MCER and (higher of deterministic and ASCE deterministic lower limit).
 
−
# ASCE 7-10 Ch 11.4
 
−
 
 
−
=== GMPE Background Seismicity Sensitivity ===
 
−
 
 
−
Members of the UGMS committee requested a comparison of probabilistic RTGM spectra for the GMPEs with and without UCERF2 background seismicity included. As CyberShake does not currently consider background seismicity, this to test the assumption that the contribution from background seismicity is negligable in the Los Angeles region. These calculations use the average of the 2014 NGAWest2 GMPEs, excluding Idriss.
 
−
 
 
−
Download a zip file with results for all 14 sites here: [[Media:Gmpe_back_seis_compare.zip]].
 
−
 
 
−
The result for the LADT site is shown below.
 
−
 
 
−
[[File:LADT_run2657_GMPE_BackSeisCompare_RotD100.png|500px|thumb|left|GMPE RTGM Spectrum for LADT with and without background seismicity.]]
 
−
 
 
−
=== MCER Maps ===
 
−
 
 
−
CyberShake MCER maps, interpolated between 286 CyberShake sites.
 
−
 
 
−
{| border="1"
 
−
! Period
 
−
! Probabilistic MCER
 
−
! Deterministic MCER
 
−
! Deterministic Lower Limit
 
−
! Combined MCER results
 
−
|-
 
−
! 3 Second, RotD100
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_3s_prob_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_3s_det_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_3s_det_lower_limit_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_3s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! 5 Second, RotD100
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_5s_prob_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_5s_det_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_5s_det_lower_limit_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_5s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! 10 Second, RotD100
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_10s_prob_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_10s_det_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_10s_det_lower_limit_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_10s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 
−
|}
 
−
 
 
−
==== GMPE Comparisons ====
 
−
 
 
−
{| border="1"
 
−
! Period
 
−
! CyberShake Combined MCER
 
−
! GMPE Combined MCER
 
−
! Ratio (CyberShake/GMPE)
 
−
|-
 
−
! 3 Second, RotD100
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_3s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_3s_gmpe_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_3s_gmpe_combined_ratio_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! 5 Second, RotD100
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_5s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_5s_gmpe_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_5s_gmpe_combined_ratio_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
−
|-
 
−
! 10 Second, RotD100
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_10s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_10s_gmpe_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
−
| [[File:rotd100_10s_gmpe_combined_ratio_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 
 
|}
 
|}

Revision as of 15:59, 1 May 2015

SCEC logo.png
SCEC Committee for Utilization of Ground Motion Simulations Meeting 4
Organizers: C.B. Crouse (URS) and Tom Jordan (SCEC/USC)
Date: Monday, May 4, 2015 (10:00-15:30)
Location: SCEC Media Room, USC, Los Angeles, CA
Participants: 25 (by invitation only)

Overview

Agenda

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking each title. PLEASE NOTE: Slides are the author's property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

10:00 Welcome and introductions
10:15 Introductory Remarks and Meeting Agenda C.B. Crouse
10:30 New Code Cycle (Project 17, BSSC Issue Teams, ASCE 7 SSC) C.B. Crouse
10:45 Update on SCEC Progress to Generate Short Period (T<2 sec) Motions Phil Maechling / Tom Jordan
11:30 Review of Revised Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake Response Spectra (MCER) at 14 Southern California Sites (T = 2 – 10 sec) Kevin Milner
12:00 Lunch
13:00 Southern California MCER Sa(T) maps – CyberShake vs. 2013 NGA West2
- CyberShake & NGA West2 Sa maps for T = 3, 5, & 10 sec
- Ratio Maps (CyberShake/NGA West2) for each T
- Discussion 		Kevin Milner
14:00 Effect of Near-Surface Geology
- SCEC Thick Surface Layer with Constant Material Properties vs. Realistic Model with Depth-Dependent Material Properties
- Results of 1-D Site Response with Both Models
- Discussion 		C.B. Crouse
14:30 Break
14:45 Technical Issues, Logistics, & Schedule for Producing Long Period MCER Maps for L.A. Region in Short Term (e.g., Possible supplement to ASCE 7-16 for City of L.A.) and Long Term (2021 NEHRP & 2022 ASCE 7) C.B. Crouse
15:00 Future Work for CyberShake Tom Jordan
15:15 Results to be Presented and Tentative Dates for Next UGMS Meeting
15:30 Adjourn
Member Attendees (in person)
C.B. Crouse - chair
John Anderson
Rob Graves
John Hooper
Marty Hudson
Tom Jordan
Charlie Kircher
Nico Luco
 Member Attendees (remotely)
Jack Baker
Jacobo Bielak
Art Frankel
 Members Absent
Norm Abrahamson
Bob Bachman
Ron Hamburger
Curt Haselton
Lew Marshall
Farzad Naeim
Paul Somerville
 Observers
Brad Aagaard
Domniki Asimaki
Nenad Bijelic
Scott Callaghan
Tran Huynh
Ting Lin
Phil Maechling
Kevin Milner
Morgan Moschetti
Kim Olsen
Sanaz Rezaeian
Andreas Skarlatoudis
Ricardo Taborda
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