Difference between revisions of "CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019"
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'''[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br>''' | '''[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br>''' | ||
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| + | Italian OEF | ||
| + | - Operational, but only available to civil protection. | ||
| + | - Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society. | ||
| + | |||
| + | Overlapping Windows | ||
| + | - Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics. | ||
| + | - Testing all of the windows at once. | ||
| + | - Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window. | ||
| + | - Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution. | ||
| + | - Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution. | ||
| + | - Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions. | ||
| + | - Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically. | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Relevant questions:''' | ||
| + | How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? | ||
| + | When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake? | ||
Revision as of 19:32, 15 May 2019
Italian OEF - Operational, but only available to civil protection. - Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.
Overlapping Windows - Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics. - Testing all of the windows at once. - Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window. - Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution. - Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution. - Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions. - Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
Relevant questions: How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
