Difference between revisions of "ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence"
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[[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png|500px|frameless]] | [[Image:shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png|500px|frameless]] | ||
| − | '''Fig 1. Rupture 199642''' | + | '''Fig 1. Rupture 199642 highlighted in red''' |
Above is a visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections: | Above is a visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections: | ||
Revision as of 00:50, 15 May 2026
NOTE: This document is under construction
Overview
The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008). See the ShakeOut TAG Proposal for more information.
This document collects findings for aftershock sequences calculating the likelihood of M7 aftershocks in the Los Angeles Basin. Each document section corresponds to a rupture from UCERF3. UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.
Rupture Search
Instead of manually searching for a point source, we select a rupture from UCERF3 that matches the scenario description and use that as the trigger.
We select a predefined multi-fault rupture, not a hypocenter. When we select a rupture index, we are selecting a combination of subsections that rupture together. The model asserts that if those subsections rupture together, the event would have that magnitude (over that total area).
We do so using the u3etas_rupture_search.sh tool. The tool is available for use locally via Docker sceccode/ucerf3_jup or on HPC systems SDSC Expanse, TACC Frontera and Stampede3, and CARC Discovery.
Below is an example of how we'd search for candidate ruptures within a 10.0 km search radius of a specified coordinate at the southernmost end of the San Andreas fault.
u3etas_rupture_search.sh --latitude 33.351 --longitude -115.711 \ --radius 10 --min-mag 7.80 --max-mag 7.81 \ $ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip > target/u3etas_rupture_search
FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr
Fig 1. Rupture 199642 highlighted in red
Above is a visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections:
Rupture 199642, M=7.801467 horizontal distance to search location: 5.334416 Subsections: 1842. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 5 1843. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 6 1844. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 7 1845. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 8 1846. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 9 1847. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 10 1848. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 11 1849. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 12 1850. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 13 1851. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 14 1944. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 0 1945. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 1 1946. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 2 1947. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 3 1948. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 4 1949. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 5 1852. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 0 1853. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 1 1854. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 2 1855. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 3 1856. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 4 1857. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 5 1858. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 6 1859. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 7 1860. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 8 1861. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 9 1862. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 10 1863. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 11 1798. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 0 1799. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 1 1800. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 2 1801. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 3 1802. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 4 1803. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 5 1804. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 6 1805. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 7 1806. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 8 1807. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 9 1808. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 10 1809. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 11 upper depth: 1.125095 width: 14.1712675 strike: 119.94974 dip: 83.48344 rake: 179.76993 First location: 34.57796, -118.18449, 0.00000 Last location: 33.38388, -115.75283, 0.39960
TODO: Copy results and methodology
