Difference between revisions of "ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence"
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=== ETAS Results === | === ETAS Results === | ||
| − | We've attempted to run 100k catalogs across Stampede3, Frontera, and Expanse. | + | We've attempted to run 100k catalogs with 14 compute nodes across Stampede3, Frontera, and Expanse. |
However, we reached a 24h time out and reached 17k on Expanse and 7k on Stampede3. | However, we reached a 24h time out and reached 17k on Expanse and 7k on Stampede3. | ||
| − | We | + | We ran out of memory on Frontera attempting to run 50k simulations with 128 compute nodes, and reached 27k. |
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/expanse-s17100/index.html Expanse (17,100 simulations)] | * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/expanse-s17100/index.html Expanse (17,100 simulations)] | ||
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/stampede3-s7000/index.html Stampede3 (7000 simulations)] | * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/stampede3-s7000/index.html Stampede3 (7000 simulations)] | ||
* [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/frontera-s27036/index.html Frontera (27,036 simulations)] | * [https://g-3a9041.a78b8.36fe.data.globus.org/shakeout-2.0/fss199642/frontera-s27036/index.html Frontera (27,036 simulations)] | ||
| − | |||
== FSS Rupture 198678, M7.8047805, Start 2026/05/12, 1 yr == | == FSS Rupture 198678, M7.8047805, Start 2026/05/12, 1 yr == | ||
Revision as of 10:04, 16 May 2026
Contents
Overview
The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008). See the ShakeOut TAG Proposal for more information.
This document collects findings for aftershock sequences calculating the likelihood of M7 aftershocks in the Los Angeles Basin. Each document section corresponds to a rupture from UCERF3. UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.
Rupture Search
Instead of manually searching for a point source, we select a rupture from UCERF3 that matches the scenario description and use that as the trigger.
We select a predefined multi-fault rupture, not a hypocenter. When we select a rupture index, we are selecting a combination of subsections that rupture together. The model asserts that if those subsections rupture together, the event would have that magnitude (over that total area).
We do so using the u3etas_rupture_search.sh tool. The tool is available for use locally via Docker sceccode/ucerf3_jup or on HPC systems SDSC Expanse, TACC Frontera and Stampede3, and CARC Discovery.
Below is an example of how we'd search for candidate ruptures within a 10.0 km search radius of a specified coordinate at the southernmost end of the San Andreas fault.
u3etas_rupture_search.sh --latitude 33.351 --longitude -115.711 \ --radius 10 --min-mag 7.80 --max-mag 7.81 \ $ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip > target/u3etas_rupture_search
Config Builder
Get time in milliseconds for the start time of your event with date (GNU coreutils) 8.30 on Expanse.
E.g. Epoch for Tue May 12 2026 3:19PM.
Note that this command doesn't work on macOS, use gdate instead.
date +%s%3N = 1778624347993
See UCERF3-ETAS Measurements for detailed instructions on how to build configurations and run simulations on each HPC system.
Only difference is that we will use the following u3etas_config_builder.sh command instead of u3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh, as we're not using an event from the USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat).
EPOCH_MS=1778624347993 FSS_IDX=199642 NUM_NODE=128 NUM_SIM=50000
ETAS_MEM_GB=32 u3etas_config_builder.sh \
--start-time $EPOCH_MS \
--fss-index $FSS_IDX \
--nodes $NUM_NODE \
--num-simulations $NUM_SIM \
--hpc-site TACC_FRONTERA \
--duration-years 10 \
--output-dir $ETAS_SIM_DIR/scenarios/frontera-scenario-fss${FSS_IDX}-n${NUM_NODE}-s${NUM_SIM}-t${EPOCH_MS}
Use the appropriate hpc-site for the corresponding system.
Expanse = SDSC_EXPANSE, Discovery = USC_CARC, Stampede3 = TACC_STAMPEDE3, Frontera = TACC_FRONTERA
FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr
Fig 1. Rupture 199642 highlighted in red
Above is a SCEC VDO visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections:
Rupture 199642, M=7.801467 horizontal distance to search location: 5.334416 Subsections: 1842. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 5 1843. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 6 1844. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 7 1845. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 8 1846. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 9 1847. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 10 1848. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 11 1849. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 12 1850. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 13 1851. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 14 1944. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 0 1945. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 1 1946. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 2 1947. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 3 1948. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 4 1949. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 5 1852. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 0 1853. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 1 1854. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 2 1855. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 3 1856. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 4 1857. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 5 1858. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 6 1859. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 7 1860. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 8 1861. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 9 1862. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 10 1863. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 11 1798. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 0 1799. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 1 1800. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 2 1801. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 3 1802. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 4 1803. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 5 1804. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 6 1805. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 7 1806. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 8 1807. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 9 1808. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 10 1809. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 11 upper depth: 1.125095 width: 14.1712675 strike: 119.94974 dip: 83.48344 rake: 179.76993 First location: 34.57796, -118.18449, 0.00000 Last location: 33.38388, -115.75283, 0.39960
ShakeMap
Fig 2. Rupture 199642 ShakeMap (IMR = NGAWest2 2014 Averaged; IMT = PGA)
The above ShakeMap was generated using the OpenSHA 26.1.1 Scenario ShakeMap Application with the following map configuration parameters.
ETAS Results
We've attempted to run 100k catalogs with 14 compute nodes across Stampede3, Frontera, and Expanse. However, we reached a 24h time out and reached 17k on Expanse and 7k on Stampede3. We ran out of memory on Frontera attempting to run 50k simulations with 128 compute nodes, and reached 27k.
FSS Rupture 198678, M7.8047805, Start 2026/05/12, 1 yr
Fig 3. Rupture 198678 highlighted in red
Above is a SCEC VDO visualization of Rupture 198678, which is comprised of the following subsections:
Rupture 198678, M=7.8047805 horizontal distance to search location: 5.334416 Subsections: 1844. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 7 1845. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 8 1846. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 9 1847. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 10 1848. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 11 1849. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 12 1850. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 13 1851. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 14 1944. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 0 1945. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 1 1946. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 2 1947. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 3 1948. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 4 1949. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 5 1852. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 0 1853. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 1 1854. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 2 1855. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 3 2114. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 2 2113. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 1 2112. San Gorgonio Pass, Subsection 0 1964. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 7 1963. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 6 1962. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 5 1961. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 4 1960. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 3 1959. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 2 1958. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 1 1957. San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll), Subsection 0 1798. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 0 1799. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 1 1800. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 2 1801. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 3 1802. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 4 1803. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 5 1804. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 6 1805. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 7 1806. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 8 1807. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 9 1808. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 10 1809. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 11 upper depth: 0.7736225 width: 14.392266 strike: 301.55923 dip: 81.441475 rake: 170.07281 First location: 33.38388, -115.75283, 0.39960 Last location: 34.52804, -118.05582, 0.00000
ShakeMap
TODO: Insert ShakeMap
ETAS Results
TODO: Insert results after simulation completes
