Difference between revisions of "CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019"
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* Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically. | * Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically. | ||
| − | '''Relevant questions:''' | + | '''Relevant questions:'''<br> |
How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? | How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? | ||
When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake? | When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake? | ||
Revision as of 19:33, 15 May 2019
Italian OEF
- Operational, but only available to civil protection.
- Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.
Overlapping Windows
- Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
- Testing all of the windows at once.
- Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window.
- Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution.
- Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution.
- Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions.
- Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
Relevant questions:
How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
