Difference between revisions of "ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence"

From SCECpedia
Jump to navigationJump to search
(Created page with "== Overview == The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the...")
 
(Add rupture search section and list of rup subsections.)
Line 1: Line 1:
 +
'''NOTE: This document is under construction'''
 +
 
== Overview ==
 
== Overview ==
 
The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008).
 
The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008).
Line 4: Line 6:
  
 
This document collects findings for aftershock sequences calculating the likelihood of M7 aftershocks in the Los Angeles Basin.
 
This document collects findings for aftershock sequences calculating the likelihood of M7 aftershocks in the Los Angeles Basin.
−
Each document section corresponds to a rupture from UCERF3 (2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL).
+
Each document section corresponds to a rupture from UCERF3.
 
UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.
 
UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.
 +
 +
=== Rupture Search ===
 +
Instead of manually searching for a point source, we select a rupture from UCERF3 that matches the scenario description and use that as the trigger.
 +
 +
We select a predefined multi-fault rupture, not a hypocenter. When we select a rupture index, we are selecting a combination of subsections that rupture together.
 +
The model asserts that if those subsections rupture together, the event would have that magnitude (over that total area).
 +
 +
We do so using the [https://github.com/opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher/blob/master/doc/scripts.md#search-for-ruptures-by-location-and-magnitude-range-u3etas_rupture_searchsh u3etas_rupture_search.sh] tool.
 +
The tool is available for use locally via [https://hub.docker.com/repository/docker/sceccode/ucerf3_jup/general Docker sceccode/ucerf3_jup] or on HPC systems SDSC Expanse, TACC Frontera and Stampede3, and CARC Discovery.
 +
 +
Below is an example of how we'd search for candidate ruptures within a 10.0 km search radius of a specified coordinate at the southernmost end of the San Andreas fault.
 +
<pre>
 +
u3etas_rupture_search.sh --latitude 33.351 --longitude -115.711 \
 +
--radius 10 --min-mag 7.80 --max-mag 7.81 \
 +
$ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip > target/u3etas_rupture_search
 +
</pre>
 +
  
 
=== FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr ===
 
=== FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr ===
Line 11: Line 30:
  
 
'''Fig 1. Rupture 199642'''
 
'''Fig 1. Rupture 199642'''
 +
 +
Above is a visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections:
 +
<pre>
 +
Rupture 199642, M=7.801467
 +
horizontal distance to search location: 5.334416
 +
Subsections:
 +
1842. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 5
 +
1843. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 6
 +
1844. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 7
 +
1845. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 8
 +
1846. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 9
 +
1847. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 10
 +
1848. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 11
 +
1849. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 12
 +
1850. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 13
 +
1851. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 14
 +
1944. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 0
 +
1945. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 1
 +
1946. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 2
 +
1947. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 3
 +
1948. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 4
 +
1949. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 5
 +
1852. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 0
 +
1853. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 1
 +
1854. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 2
 +
1855. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 3
 +
1856. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 4
 +
1857. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 5
 +
1858. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 6
 +
1859. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 7
 +
1860. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 8
 +
1861. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 9
 +
1862. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 10
 +
1863. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 11
 +
1798. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 0
 +
1799. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 1
 +
1800. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 2
 +
1801. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 3
 +
1802. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 4
 +
1803. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 5
 +
1804. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 6
 +
1805. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 7
 +
1806. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 8
 +
1807. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 9
 +
1808. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 10
 +
1809. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 11
 +
upper depth: 1.125095
 +
width: 14.1712675
 +
strike: 119.94974
 +
dip: 83.48344
 +
rake: 179.76993
 +
First location: 34.57796, -118.18449, 0.00000
 +
Last location: 33.38388, -115.75283, 0.39960
 +
</pre>
  
  
−
TODO: Copy methodology and add links to data products
+
TODO: Copy results and methodology

Revision as of 00:49, 15 May 2026

NOTE: This document is under construction

Overview

The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008). See the ShakeOut TAG Proposal for more information.

This document collects findings for aftershock sequences calculating the likelihood of M7 aftershocks in the Los Angeles Basin. Each document section corresponds to a rupture from UCERF3. UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.

Rupture Search

Instead of manually searching for a point source, we select a rupture from UCERF3 that matches the scenario description and use that as the trigger.

We select a predefined multi-fault rupture, not a hypocenter. When we select a rupture index, we are selecting a combination of subsections that rupture together. The model asserts that if those subsections rupture together, the event would have that magnitude (over that total area).

We do so using the u3etas_rupture_search.sh tool. The tool is available for use locally via Docker sceccode/ucerf3_jup or on HPC systems SDSC Expanse, TACC Frontera and Stampede3, and CARC Discovery.

Below is an example of how we'd search for candidate ruptures within a 10.0 km search radius of a specified coordinate at the southernmost end of the San Andreas fault. 

u3etas_rupture_search.sh --latitude 33.351 --longitude -115.711 \
	--radius 10 --min-mag 7.80 --max-mag 7.81 \
	$ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip > target/u3etas_rupture_search


FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr

Shakeout-2.0-fss199642-scec-vdo.png

Fig 1. Rupture 199642

Above is a visualization of Rupture 199642, which is comprised of the following subsections: 

Rupture 199642, M=7.801467
	horizontal distance to search location: 5.334416
	Subsections:
		1842. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 5
		1843. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 6
		1844. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 7
		1845. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 8
		1846. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 9
		1847. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 10
		1848. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 11
		1849. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 12
		1850. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 13
		1851. San Andreas (Mojave S), Subsection 14
		1944. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 0
		1945. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 1
		1946. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 2
		1947. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 3
		1948. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 4
		1949. San Andreas (San Bernardino N), Subsection 5
		1852. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 0
		1853. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 1
		1854. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 2
		1855. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 3
		1856. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 4
		1857. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 5
		1858. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 6
		1859. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 7
		1860. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 8
		1861. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 9
		1862. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 10
		1863. San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek), Subsection 11
		1798. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 0
		1799. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 1
		1800. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 2
		1801. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 3
		1802. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 4
		1803. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 5
		1804. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 6
		1805. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 7
		1806. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 8
		1807. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 9
		1808. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 10
		1809. San Andreas (Coachella) rev, Subsection 11
	upper depth: 1.125095
	width: 14.1712675
	strike: 119.94974
	dip: 83.48344
	rake: 179.76993
	First location: 34.57796, -118.18449, 0.00000
	Last location: 33.38388, -115.75283, 0.39960


TODO: Copy results and methodology

Retrieved from "https://strike.scec.org/scecwiki/index.php?title=ShakeOut_2.0_-_Aftershock_Sequence&oldid=30765"