CSEP Minutes 07-25-2018

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Participants: M. Werner, D. Rhoades, W. Savran, P. Maechling, J. Vidale, A. Michael, and D. Jackson

CSEP Workshop SCEC Annual Meeting

Planned CSEP workshop the Saturday before SCEC AM (09/08/18)

Participants

Who should we invite?

• Conveners
  • Andy Michael
  • Max Werner
  • David Rhoades
  • Toroka (sp?)
  • Tom Jordan
• Participants
  • USGS
    • Jeanne
    • Kevin
    • Ned
    • Nicholas
    • Andrea
  • New Zealand
    • Matt
  • SCEC
    • Fabio
    • John Y.
    • John V.
    • Bruce S.
    • Jacqui G.
    • Keith R.

Workshop Topic Ideas

1) Planning CSEP2.0 (>= 50%)

• USGS Modelers
• International Representatives
  • New Zealand
  • Italy
  • Potsdam
  • Japan
• Need to account for software development across Potsdam and SCEC.
• Technical discussion at workshop.

2) CSEP1.0 Legacy issues

• Present curated CSEP1.0 data along with data set
• Data availability
• Publication Plans for CA data set

3) [DJ] Trying to integrate short-term (aftershock) forecasts between forecasting models.

• How can we answer questions across tectonic settings?
• Share questionnaires between people doing short-term forecasts.

4) [PM] Testing UCERF3-ETAS against other ETAS varities

• USGS typically forecasts 1 year.

European RISE proposal

• Several EU members planning proposal led by Stefan W.
• Proposal has the goal of advancing operational earthquake forecasting within Europe.
  • Core mission is not necessarily basic science, but also not implementating OEF for Europe.
  • Dozens of EU institutions, spanning seismologists to statisticians to risk communications.
  • Estimating dynamic seismic risk.
  • Key aspect is around earthquake forecasting.
  • Another aspect is model evaluations.
• Max is the lisason between SCEC and EU Testing Centers.
• Questions:
  • How do we make sure that we have a flexible system where people can design their own bespoke experiements?
  • How do we internationally make sure the developments are accesssible between testing centers?
    • Communication between groups.
    • Need to agree on the basis of the software development.

• Model outputs should contain hypocenters, origin time, and moment magnitudes.

Action items:

1) Bill

• Put questionnaire responses on the wiki, if people agree to share their responses.
• Write proposal for technical software developments to collaborate disucssions amongst groups.

2) Bill & Max

• Scientific proposal for call next week involving modelers.