CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019
Italian OEF - Operational, but only available to civil protection. - Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.
Overlapping Windows - Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics. - Testing all of the windows at once. - Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window. - Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution. - Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution. - Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions. - Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
Relevant questions: How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
