CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019

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Italian OEF

• Operational, but only available to civil protection.
• Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.

Overlapping Windows

• Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
• Testing all of the windows at once.
• Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window.
• Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution.
• Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution.
• Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions.
• Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.

Relevant questions: How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event? When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?