CSEP 2.0 Developments

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Proposed software developments needed to test UCERF3 -- CSEP2.0 as a workflow

• abstract goes here.
• summary statement of proposal
• clearly state proposed plans for putting ucerf3 under test
• [under development until remainder of proposal is written]

Introduction

• state reasons for transitioning from CSEP1 -> CSEP2
• introduce technical/scientific challenges of testing UCERF3 etas
• introduce the csep problem as a workflow
• describe remaining software infrastructure
• 'on-demand' prospective/retrospective experiments

Guiding Principals

1. Controlled Environment
2. Transparency
3. Comparability
4. Reproducibility

Testing the Next Generation of Earthquake Forecasts

• cover technical/scientific challenges of testing UCERF3 etas
• fault and stochastic event sets
• potential models under forecast
• make point that software developments are required to test CSEP2.0
  • software developments
  • first step to evaluation forecast is to compute forecasts

CSEP2.0 as a Workflow

• proposed software and hardware to test CSEP2.0
• describe tech used to achieve guiding principals
  • controlled environment -> containers
  • transparency -> web application (results viewer)
  • comparability -> (open sourced evaluations)
  • reproducibility -> containers and workflow
• decoupling of forecasts and evaluations
• proposal to open-source experiments to community
• versioning of catalog data
• introduce the minimum viable product to run Open-SHA from container in pegasus

Proposed scientific questions for testing new Forecasting models

• do faults provide improved forecasting skill?
• retrospective experiements for past earthquakes
  • el mayor cucupah
  • landers
  • napa valley
  • northridge (unknown fault... hinterlands)
• simple versus complex models
• comparison against csep1 simulations (use case for csep1 dataset)
  • need method for comparing rate based forecasts and fault-based simulation based forecasts