CyberShake Deterministic MCEr Calculations
Original CyberShake MCEr results have been presented which include all UCERF2 ruptures, including aleatory magnitude variability. Is has come to our attention that the NSHMP does not include aleatory magnitude variability when calculating deterministic hazard spectrum and have modified our calculation procedure to remove the aleatory variability. These results are not yet final, pending receiving a list of sources/magnitudes used by the NSHMP for UCERF2 based deterministic calculations. Once we have that list we can verify our approach.
For more background on a the algorithm to remove aleatory magnitude variability, see this page.
Contents
Initial results, 2s RotD100
| Dataset | Probabilistic MCER (UNCHANGED) | Deterministic MCER | Deterministic Lower Limit (UNCHANGED) | Combined MCER results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original CyberShake 2s | ||||
| New Deterministic Algorithm, 2s |
Governing Scatter Plots
I have generated a new set of plots which shows the value that governs at each CyberShake site. This shows where the (now lower) deterministic values govern the MCEr value at 2s.
BLUE: Probabilistic Value Governs
RED: Deterministic Value Governs
GRAY: Deterministic Lower Limit Value Governs
Original Scatter
As you can see below, originally all sites were governed by the probabilistic values (all sites are blue).
New Deterministic Algorithm Scatter
Now a number of sites are governed by the deterministic values, especially along the San Andreas Fault
