CSEP 1 STEPCoulombQuickFix

Introduction

RFC002 discusses the issues observed with the STEPCoulomb model in the CSEP New Zealand testing center. CSEP provides a computational infrastructure to perform and evaluate both prospective and retrospective earthquake forecasting experiments. In regards to a retrospective forecasting experiment, it was observed that the STEPCoulomb model installed in CSEP did not produce the expected output for the Darfield Experiment -- a forecasting experiment of the 2010 Christchurch Earthquake sequence.

The STEPCoulomb model represents a hybrid model consisting of a statistical STEP model and a physics-based Coulomb stress model. The executable that computes the STEP forecast obtains a Coulomb mask based on available slip models, and uses the information contained from the Coulomb stress model to provide physical constraints to the statistical STEP (short-term earthquake prediction) forecast. The STEPCoulomb forecast should produce two forecast outputs: (1) STEP forecast, and (2) STEPCoulomb forecast, which can be compared to determine the pairwise efficacy of the two forecasting models.

This document is laid out as follows: Problem Statement provides a description of the problems as communicated by the science groups to SCEC IT; and Proposed Solution provides an explanation of the solution to the problem outlined in the problem statement.

Problem Statement

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Proposed Solution

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