CSEP Minutes 02-12-2020

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Participants: W. Savran, M. Werner, D. Rhoades, A. Strader, N. Field, P. Maechling

Rise Overview

• Two major experiments being planned:

(1) Italian short-term OEF focused experiment

(2) Global experiment including both time-independent and time-dependent forecasts

• Additional experiments involving high-resolution catalogs and Europe-wide testing region discussed.
• ~10 PhD students and PostDocs involved in the project
• Additional modelers are encouraged to participate in the experiment
• Model types include ETAS, Coulomb-based forecasts, and Bayesian model (Inlabru from Edinburgh Group).
• There are practical issues with using slip models for Coulomb forecasting, such as data source and whether modelers can do pre-processing to them.
• SCEC will provide the toolkit used to evaluate forecasts.
• Individual testing centers are responsible for implementing the experiments.
• Toolkit will be released to group at the middle June RISE workshop in Potsdam/Naples.
• SCEC will demonstrate toolkit by showing end-to-end processing of global forecast and short-term forecast.
• California Forecast will be presented at the hopeful CSEP workshop.

Whitepaper

• NSF is soliciting community feedback for competition of the SCEC core funding.
• CSEP should provide a 3pg white-paper arguing for continued support.
• Whitepaper should pull from Jordan et al., 2011 and Schorlemmer et al., 2018.
• Focus on scientific questions that can be address through prospective testing should be emphasized for NSF.
• These ideas have been outlined in Grand Challenges.