Preferred Rupture Directivity in Hazard Curve Computations

Notice: This page is still under construction. TODO statements indicate areas still under work.

Motivation

We know from theory that strong rupture directivity has a strong impact on results. Modifying the HazardCurvePlotter to allow us to input custom probabilities for rupture variations allows us to compare hazard expected for persistent directivity vs random rupture direction. We can prescribe directivity based on topography or physics reasons and see if the signature is drowned out by randomness of the network or if it still stands out.

New Functionality

The existing OpenSHA command-line tool, HazardCurvePlotter, is able to compute hazard curves and plot them to images locally on a system. We’ve added a new parameter, rv-probs-csv, for a Rupture Variation Probabilities Input CSV file.

Passing this file allows a user to specify directivity for specific rupture variations. Previously, all variations had an equal probability, distributed from the probability of the rupture itself. The sum of probabilities of the variations must still sum to the probability of the corresponding rupture.

Curves with modified probabilities are not cached to the CyberShake database by default. It takes me approximately 4 minutes to compute hazard curves for just period 3 locally on my system. It takes about 33 minutes to compute for periods 2, 3, 5, and 10.

CSV Structure

The input CSV file should have the following columns.

• Source_ID
• Rupture_ID
• Rup_Var_ID
• Probability

The specified source and rupture acts as a composite key, uniquely identifying a rupture variation. Each rupture at a site is comprised of a set of rupture variations. The CSV file does not need to have an entry for each variation found in the CyberShake database. The remaining unspecified variations are given an equal probability distributed from the difference of the rupture probability and the sum of rupture variation probabilities specified. The formatting, structure, and sum or probabilities are validated in the HazardCurvePlotter.

TODO: See some examples of input CSVs here.

TODO: The commands utilizing these CSVs and the corresponding runs are found

Plots

The following plots show curves for the following sites:

• ALP
• USC
• SBSM
• SVD
• PDE

All are plotted with periods of 2, 3, 5, and 10 seconds. The modified probabilities are such that the hypocenters are responsible for 90% of the probability, unless otherwise specified.

TODO: Add comparison 90p plots (1 for each period), overlay reference, and thoughts on impact of modified probabilities overall.

TODO: Explain where comparison plot was made (Excel) and potential to expand existing OpenSHA Comparison Plot functionality for this purpose.

USC 9306 (10p)

Unlike with other plots, the hypocenters are responsible for 10% of the probability.

TODO: Add individual plot

Compute Time: 33.15 min

Command Parameters:

-o src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob/3  \

-R 9306 \

-cmp RotD50 \

-rv src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella.csv \

--plot-chars-file src/main/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/conf/robPlot.xml \

-t TXT,PDF \

-p 2,3,5,10

USC 9306

TODO: Add individual plot

TODO: Add compute time.

Command Parameters:

--output-dir src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob/USC  \

--run-id 9306 \

--component RotD50 \

--period 2,3,5,10 \

--rv-probs-csv src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/USC_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv \

--plot-chars-file src/main/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/conf/robPlot.xml \

--type TXT,PDF

ALP 9542

TODO: Add individual plot

TODO: Add compute time.

Command Parameters:

--output-dir src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob/ALP  \

--run-id 9542 \

--component RotD50 \

--period 2,3,5,10 \

--rv-probs-csv src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/ALP_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv \

--plot-chars-file src/main/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/conf/robPlot.xml \

--type TXT,PDF

SBSM 9320

TODO: Add individual plot

TODO: Add compute time.

Command Parameters:

--output-dir src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob/SBSM  \

--run-id 9320 \

--component RotD50 \

--period 2,3,5,10 \

--rv-probs-csv src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/SBSM_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv \

--plot-chars-file src/main/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/conf/robPlot.xml \

--type TXT,PDF

SVD 9647

TODO: Add individual plot

TODO: Add compute time.

Command Parameters:

--output-dir src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob/SVD  \

--run-id 9647 \

--component RotD50 \

--period 2,3,5,10 \

--rv-probs-csv src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/SVD_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv \

--plot-chars-file src/main/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/conf/robPlot.xml \

--type TXT,PDF

PDE 9663

TODO: Add individual plot

TODO: Add compute time.

Command Parameters:

--output-dir src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/modprob/PDE  \

--run-id 9663 \

--component RotD50 \

--period 2,3,5,10 \

--rv-probs-csv src/test/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/plot/HazardCurvePlotter/PDE_mod_probs_Mojave_Coachella_90p.csv \

--plot-chars-file src/main/resources/org/opensha/sha/cybershake/conf/robPlot.xml \

--type TXT,PDF