ShakeOut 2.0 - Aftershock Sequence

Overview

The ShakeOut Technical Activity Group (TAG) aims to generate updated earthquake scenarios for a major southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) event, expanding upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., 2008). See the ShakeOut TAG Proposal for more information.

This document collects findings for aftershock sequences calculating the likelihood of M7 aftershocks in the Los Angeles Basin. Each document section corresponds to a rupture from UCERF3 (2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL). UCERF3-ETAS is used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks on SAF and M7 aftershock.

FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr

Fig 1. Rupture 199642

TODO: Copy methodology and add links to data products