CSEP2 Community Responses

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Questionnaire

• What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model?

• Model software requirements? Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code?

• Object of forecast? Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates?

• Required data inputs to compute forecast?

• Authoritative data source for testing forecasts?

• Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests?

• Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales?

• Community involvement? competing models? New models/extant CSEP models?

Responses

These responses will act as living documents that we can refine as time progresses.

USGS Aftershock Forecasts

Submitted by: Jeanne Hardebeck

Response for the planned USGS routine aftershock forecasting. We will be rolling out Reasenberg & Jones forecasts in late August 2018, with ETAS forecasts to follow. Forecasts will be for aftershocks following M>=5 earthquakes, and smaller events of interest, within the US.

What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model?

These forecasts are meant to inform the public and decision-makers, not to address any scientific questions. As we evolve from Reasenberg & Jones to ETAS, we will be able to tests these two models against each other.

Model software requirements

Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code?

Forecasts will be computed externally to CSEP. Currently on-demand, but in the process of automating.

Object of forecast

Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates?

Forecast is cast as a PDF of the number of event hypocenters within a spatial

region, time period, and magnitude range. There is no expectation that this

PDF is any particular kind of distribution.

The ETAS forecasts will include something similar to a set of simulated catalogs, but not exactly. The forecasts are based on temporal simulated event sets, while a static spatial kernel is used to spatially distribute the event rate. So there are temporal simulated catalogs. Spatial-temporal simulated catalogs could be created using the spatial kernel, but wouldn't have the full level of spatial correlations of a true ETAS simulation.

Forecast horizons will range from 1 day to 1 year, and updating will occur frequently. Therefore, many forecasts will overlap, making them non-independent.

Required data inputs to compute forecast?

Forecasts will be computed externally to CSEP.

Authoritative data source for testing forecasts?

ComCat.

Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests?

 ??

Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales?

 ??

Community involvement

competing models? New models/extant CSEP models?

 ??

New Zealand Forecasts

Submitted by: Matt Gerstenberger

What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model?

Should we continue exploring this model?

Does the model provide additional information over any other model?

How much is the variability in performance across magnitude, space and time?

How does the model perform in low seis vs high seis regions?

Model software requirements? Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code?

internal; no idea; either; no; operating in two csep testing centres, with similar in a third

Object of forecast? Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates?

hypocenters or epicenters; rates/probs; any forecast horizon or update

Required data inputs to compute forecast?

standard eq catalogue: time, lat/lon/depth, mag

Authoritative data source for testing forecasts?

standard csep

Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests?

standard csep

Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales?

understanding spatial variability across models - both within "sequence" and across regions. weeks to multiple years/decades

exploring retrospective testing to understand variability in performace

Community involvement? competing models? New models/extant CSEP models?

all other short, medium and long-term models.

General Responses

Submitted by: Warner Marzocchi

What are the scientific questions to be answered by experiments involving your model?

I think that the most important issue has to remain the forecast. This is mostly what society asks us. Of course, we may also implement tests for specific scientific hypothesis but we have to be aware than society needs forecasts and hazard.

Model software requirements? Will the model be computed internal/external to CSEP? Required computing/memory/storage? Automated/On-demand? Versioned code? Status of code?

I think it would be good if any model will provide simulated catalogs from which we may calculate any statistics we want. This allows us to overcome many shortcomings of the current tests, such as the independence, the Poisson assumption and including epistemic uncertainty.

I would be flexible about where the model is stored. I prefer inside CSEP but I would allow external models to be part of the game if this allows us to increment the number of CSEP people.

Object of forecast? Epicenters, Hypocenters, Faults? Cast as rates/probabilities, Sets of simulated catalogs? Forecast horizons, updates?

Simulated catalogs

Required data inputs to compute forecast?

Seismic catalog

Authoritative data source for testing forecasts?

The same as in CSEP1

Available/unavailable tests, metrics etc. If unavailable, what scientific/computational developments need to occur to implement these tests?

I would implement more scoring systems as the weather forecasting community is doing.

Specific ideas for Retrospective/Prospective testing? Timescales?

The short-term is important

• Community involvement? competing models? New models/extant CSEP models?

I would definitely include some procedures to create ensemble models using the scores.