CSEP 1 STEPCoulombQuickFix

Introduction

RFC002 discusses the issues observed with the STEPCoulomb model in the CSEP New Zealand testing center. CSEP provides a computational infrastructure to perform and evaluate both prospective and retrospective earthquake forecasting experiments. The science group observed that the STEPCoulomb model installed in CSEP did not produce the expected output for the Darfield Experiment -- a retrospective forecasting experiment on the 2010 Christchurch Earthquake sequence.

The STEPCoulomb model represents a hybrid model consisting of a statistical STEP model and a physics-based Coulomb stress model. The executable that computes the STEP forecast obtains a Coulomb mask based on available slip models, and uses the information contained from the Coulomb stress model to provide physical constraints to the statistical STEP (short-term earthquake prediction) forecast. The STEPCoulomb forecast should produce two forecast outputs: (1) STEP forecast, and (2) STEPCoulomb forecast, which can be compared to determine the pairwise efficacy of the two forecasting models.

Problem Statement

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Proposed Solution

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