CSEP Minutes 02-12-2020

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CSEP Working Group Home Page

Participants: W. Savran, M. Werner, D. Rhoades, A. Strader, N. Field, P. Maechling

Rise Overview

  • Two major experiments being planned:
(1) Italian short-term OEF focused experiment
(2) Global experiment including both time-independent and time-dependent forecasts
  • Additional experiments involving high-resolution catalogs and Europe-wide testing region discussed.
  • ~10 PhD students and PostDocs involved in the project
  • Additional modelers are encouraged to participate in the experiment
  • Model types include ETAS, Coulomb-based forecasts, and Bayesian model (Inlabru from Edinburgh Group).
  • There are practical issues with using slip models for Coulomb forecasting, such as data source and whether modelers can do pre-processing to them.
  • SCEC will provide the toolkit used to evaluate forecasts.
  • Individual testing centers are responsible for implementing the experiments.
  • Toolkit will be released to group at the middle June RISE workshop in Potsdam/Naples.
  • SCEC will demonstrate toolkit by showing end-to-end processing of global forecast and short-term forecast.
  • California Forecast will be presented at the hopeful CSEP workshop.

Whitepaper

  • NSF is soliciting community feedback for competition of the SCEC core funding.
  • CSEP should provide a 3pg white-paper arguing for continued support.
  • Whitepaper should pull from Jordan et al., 2011 and Schorlemmer et al., 2018.
  • Focus on scientific questions that can be address through prospective testing should be emphasized for NSF.
  • These ideas have been outlined in Grand Challenges.