CSEP Minutes 05-15-2019

From SCECpedia
Revision as of 19:57, 15 May 2019 by Wsavran (talk | contribs)
Jump to navigationJump to search

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Participants: Andy Michael, Max Werner, David Rhoades, Giuseppe, Phil Maechling and William Savran

Italian OEF

  • Operational, but only available to civil protection.
  • Working on publicly available system, but needs work with different levels of society.

Overlapping Windows

  • Using simulation-based tests the correlations are preserved so can compute cumulative statistics.
  • Testing all of the windows at once.
  • Simulated likelihood distribution based on set of parameters within each forecast window.
  • Compute likelihoods within each simulated distribution.
  • Aggregate log-likelihoods from likelihood distribution.
  • Worth investigating meteorology literature for their solutions.
  • Separating testing windows useful for understanding model performance but not required mathematically.
  • Marzocchi et al., 2019 applied method to estimate model performance after some period using power-law model.
  • Usage must be considered to guide evaluations.
  • For example, multiple time-windows from same start time assume that decision maker needs to make a decision now.


CSEP Workshop Funded!!


Relevant questions:

  • How well can you predict the number of earthquakes immediately after an event versus at some time after an event?
  • When do forecasts start becoming useful after a large earthquake?
  • ETAS without parameter updating versus RJ with updating versus FastETAS.