Difference between revisions of "CyberShake Deterministic MCEr Calculations"
| Line 37: | Line 37: | ||
'''<span style="color: gray">GRAY: Deterministic Lower Limit Value Governs</span>''' | '''<span style="color: gray">GRAY: Deterministic Lower Limit Value Governs</span>''' | ||
| − | ==== Original Scatter ==== | + | ==== Original Governing Scatter ==== |
As you can see below, originally all sites were governed by the probabilistic values (all sites are blue). | As you can see below, originally all sites were governed by the probabilistic values (all sites are blue). | ||
[[File:Det_demo_orig_overning_scatter_psv.png]] | [[File:Det_demo_orig_overning_scatter_psv.png]] | ||
| − | ==== New Deterministic Algorithm Scatter ==== | + | ==== New Deterministic Algorithm Governing Scatter ==== |
Now a number of sites are governed by the deterministic values (both red, deterministic value, and gray, deterministic lower limit), especially along the San Andreas Fault. | Now a number of sites are governed by the deterministic values (both red, deterministic value, and gray, deterministic lower limit), especially along the San Andreas Fault. | ||
[[File:Det_demo_new_overning_scatter_psv.png]] | [[File:Det_demo_new_overning_scatter_psv.png]] | ||
Revision as of 17:15, 22 September 2015
Original CyberShake MCEr results have been presented which include all UCERF2 ruptures in deterministic calculations, including aleatory magnitude variability. It has come to our attention that the NSHMP does not include aleatory magnitude variability when calculating deterministic hazard spectrum and we have modified our calculation procedure to remove the aleatory variability. These results are not yet final, pending receiving a list of sources/magnitudes used by the NSHMP for UCERF2 based deterministic calculations. Once we have that list we can verify our approach.
For more background on a the algorithm to remove aleatory magnitude variability, see this page.
Contents
Initial results, 2s RotD100
| Dataset | Probabilistic MCER (UNCHANGED) | Deterministic MCER | Deterministic Lower Limit (UNCHANGED) | Combined MCER results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original CyberShake 2s | ||||
| New Deterministic Algorithm, 2s |
Governing Scatter Plots
I have generated a new set of plots which shows the value that governs at each CyberShake site. This shows where the (now lower) deterministic values govern the MCEr value at 2s.
As a reminder, the final combined MCEr value is min(probabilistic, max(deterministic, deterministic_lower_limit)).
BLUE: Probabilistic Value Governs
RED: Deterministic Value Governs
GRAY: Deterministic Lower Limit Value Governs
Original Governing Scatter
As you can see below, originally all sites were governed by the probabilistic values (all sites are blue).
New Deterministic Algorithm Governing Scatter
Now a number of sites are governed by the deterministic values (both red, deterministic value, and gray, deterministic lower limit), especially along the San Andreas Fault.
