Difference between revisions of "CyberShake Deterministic MCEr Calculations"

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[[File:Det_demo_new_overning_scatter_psv.png]]
 
[[File:Det_demo_new_overning_scatter_psv.png]]
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== Description of MCER Methods ==
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== Related Pages ==
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*[CyberShake]

Revision as of 16:16, 16 October 2015

Original CyberShake MCEr results have been presented which include all UCERF2 ruptures in deterministic calculations, including aleatory magnitude variability. It has come to our attention that the NSHMP does not include aleatory magnitude variability when calculating deterministic hazard spectrum and we have modified our calculation procedure to remove the aleatory variability. These results are not yet final, pending receiving a list of sources/magnitudes used by the NSHMP for UCERF2 based deterministic calculations. Once we have that list we can verify our approach.

For more background on a the algorithm to remove aleatory magnitude variability, see this page.

Initial results, 2s RotD100

Dataset Probabilistic MCER (UNCHANGED) Deterministic MCER Deterministic Lower Limit (UNCHANGED) Combined MCER results
Original CyberShake 2s
Det demo orig prob mcer psv contours.png
Det demo orig det mcer psv contours.png
Det demo orig det lower limit psv contours.png
Det demo orig combined mcer psv contours.png
New Deterministic Algorithm, 2s
Det demo new prob mcer psv contours.png
Det demo new det mcer psv contours.png
Det demo new det lower limit psv contours.png
Det demo new combined mcer psv contours.png

Governing Scatter Plots

I have generated a new set of plots which shows the value that governs at each CyberShake site. This shows where the (now lower) deterministic values govern the MCEr value at 2s.

As a reminder, the final combined MCEr value is min(probabilistic, max(deterministic, deterministic_lower_limit)).

BLUE: Probabilistic Value Governs

RED: Deterministic Value Governs

GRAY: Deterministic Lower Limit Value Governs

Original Governing Scatter

As you can see below, originally all sites were governed by the probabilistic values (all sites are blue).

Det demo orig overning scatter psv.png

New Deterministic Algorithm Governing Scatter

Now a number of sites are governed by the deterministic values (both red, deterministic value, and gray, deterministic lower limit), especially along the San Andreas Fault.

Det demo new overning scatter psv.png

Description of MCER Methods

Related Pages

  • [CyberShake]