CyberShake Deterministic MCEr Calculations

Original CyberShake MCEr results have been presented which include all UCERF2 ruptures, including aleatory magnitude variability. Is has come to our attention that the NSHMP does not include aleatory magnitude variability when calculating deterministic hazard spectrum and have modified our calculation procedure to remove the aleatory variability. These results are not yet final, pending receiving a list of sources/magnitudes used by the NSHMP for UCERF2 based deterministic calculations. Once we have that list we can verify our approach.

For more background on a the algorithm to remove aleatory magnitude variability, see this page.

Initial results, 2s RotD100

Dataset	Probabilistic MCER	Deterministic MCER	Deterministic Lower Limit	Combined MCER results	Governing Scatter
Original CyberShake 2s
New Deterministic Algorithm, 2s