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| − | [[Image:SCEC_NSF-USGS-words_logom.png|left|150px]][[Image:CISNlogos.png|right|150px]][[Image:usgs-logo-color.jpg|right|150px]] | + | [[Image:SCEC_NSF-USGS-words_logom.png|left|150px]][[Image:CISNlogos.png|right|250px]] |
| | + | [[Image:Swiss_Seismological_Service-Logo.png|right|40px]] |
| | + | [[Image:usgs-logo-color.jpg|right|150px]] |
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| − | == SCEC Earthquake Early Warning Activities ==
| + | Earthquake early warning (EEW) is a technology that can provide rapid information about an earthquake. Under favorable circumstances, EEW technology can provide automated warning of strong ground motions from an earthquake before those ground motions have propagated to all affected sites. EEW technology provides warnings after the earthquake has begun but before the earthquake has affected all users. |
| − | SCEC4 science plans emphasize the development and use of time-dependent seismic hazard analysis. SCEC is working to extend time-dependent seismic hazard analysis through application of EEW technologies. SCEC is working with the [http://www.cisn.org California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN)] in the development and evaluation of a prototype CISN EEW system called the CISN [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ShakeAlert] system.
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| − | SCEC is working to developed automated CISN EEW performance evaluation system. This system, currently called the CISN Testing Center (CTC), is based on the testing framework developed on the SCEC CSEP project.
| + | == EEW Technology Description == |
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| − | == CISN EEW Testing Data Sets ==
| + | EEW forecast capabilities require (a) ground motion (or other) geophysical sensors, (b) scientific processing software, and (c) a communication system distributing information to users. Detailed descriptions of EEW technology can be found here: |
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| − | '''CISN EEW Trigger Summary'''
| + | *[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_warning_system EEW (Wikipedia)] |
| − | *[http://scec.usc.edu/research/eew/summary/California/shakecast-tests/ CTC Test Results Directory] | + | *[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_Early_Warning_%28Japan%29 Japan EEW] |
| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/earlywarning/ CISN EEW Algorithm Testing Site] | |
| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/Cumulative_Trigger_Summary.zip CISN Cumulative Trigger Summary] (2008-2010) (15MB Zip File containing 75MB html File)
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| − | '''CISN EEW Station Lists'''
| + | == CISN EEW Project == |
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| − | CISN provided the following list of stations used in current CISN EEW processing | + | [http://www.cisn.org California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN)] research groups, together with SCEC and USGS, are developing a prototype CISN EEW system called the CISN [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ShakeAlert] system. |
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/stations_nc_04.13.2010.txt Northern CISN Station List]
| + | [[SCEC]]'s current research focus on the [[ShakeAlert]] project is the development of an automated CISN EEW performance evaluation system. This EEW performance evaluation system, currently called the CISN Testing Center (CTC), is based on the testing framework developed on the SCEC [[CSEP]] project. |
| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/stations_sc_04.13.2010.txt Southern CISN Station List]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/cisn_eew_10Oct_2010_v1.kml Combined CISN EEW Station List (KML Format)]
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| − | *[http://scec.usc.edu/websims/repo/m8/data/trace.kml Southern San Andreas Fault Trace lon/lat (KML format)]
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| − | The ShakeMap authorized data source may provide the observational data used to validate short term ground motion forecasts.
| + | SCEC4 science plans emphasize the development and use of time-dependent seismic hazard analysis. SCEC earthquake system science research approach seeks to integrate EEW technologies into time-dependent seismic hazard analysis through applications. |
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| − | *[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/rss_info.php ShakeMap Rss System]
| + | CISN and SCEC are collaborating on the development of EEW evaluation tools and techniques. Detailed EEW development notes and current evaluation results are posted on related wiki entries including: |
| − | *[http://www.ncedc.org/anss/catalog-search.html ANSS Seismic Data Center]
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| − | *[http://www.data.scec.org/ SCEC Data Center at Caltech]
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| − | *[http://www.ncedc.org/ Northern California Data Center at UC Berkeley]
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| − | '''ShakeAlert CTC Trac System'''
| + | *[[CISN Testing Center]] |
| | + | *[[CISN Testing Center (CTC) Results]] |
| | + | *[[ShakeAlert]] |
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| − | *[http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/eew CISN EEW Trac System]
| + | == CISN EEW Collaborators == |
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| − | == EEW-Related SCEC Research Documents and Links ==
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| − | '''2010'''
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| − | *[http://scec.usc.edu/scecwiki/images/c/c8/CTC_14Oct2010_v6.ppt CISN EEW Workshop Oct 2010] (7MB ppt File)
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/CTC_Testing_Plans_1April2010.pptx CTC Development Plans April 2010 (12Mb pptx)]
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| − | *[[M8_EEW_Analysis]]
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| − | *[http://scec.usc.edu/scecwiki/images/3/3f/EEW_Algor_testing_v01b.pdf CISN EEW Testing Document] (Updated July 2010)
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| − | '''2009'''
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| − | *[http://scec.usc.edu/scecwiki/images/f/ff/EEW_Testing_summary_v2.pdf CISN EEW Testing Summary 2009]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/ShakeAlert_3YrSummary.pdf Fall AGU 2009 (Cua et al)]
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| − | **[[File:Cua_ShakeAlert_3yrSummary.pdf]] Alternative Download Site
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/ShakeAlert_User_Poster.pdf Fall AGU 2009 (Hellweg et al)]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/Maechling_EEW_AGU_Fall_2009_v4.pdf Fall AGU 2009 (Maechling et al)]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/Maechling_EEW_SCEC_AM_2009_v2.pdf SCEC Annual Meeting Poster 2009 (Maechling et al)]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/mboese_IST_LunchBunch2009.pdf Maren Bose EEW Presentation (2009)]
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| − | '''2008'''
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| − | *[http://scec.usc.edu/scecwiki/images/9/99/CISN_AGU08F.ppt Fall 2008 AGU EEW Presentation (Hellweg et al)]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/Maechling_CSEP_System_Overview_120508_v3.ppt CSEP Testing Center Overview (Dec 2008) (Maechling et al) (3MB ppt)]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/Maechling_Prospective_Testing_06102008.ppt Prospective Testing Overview (EEW and CSEP) (Maechling et al) (3MB ppt)]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/Maechling_EEW_SCEC_Japan_2009_v1.pdf EEW Meeting In Kyoto Poster 2008 (Maechling et al) (PDF)]
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| − | '''2006'''
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/K4_Erdik.pdf Mustafa Erdik EEW Presentation (2006)]
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| − | *[http://scecdata.usc.edu/maechling/O06_UJNR200611081.pdf Shin'ya TSUKADA EEW Presentation (2006)]
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| − | [[File:Eew_stations_cal_m8.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 1: California Station List with M8 Epicenter.]]
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| − | [[Image:CaliforniaNatLab.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 2: California Testing Region (inner) and Catalog Region (outer).]]
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| − | [[File:scec.eew.EEWTest.eewTest_SHAKEMAP-Test_Event10736069.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 3: Plotting of ShakeMap observation data for Event in Southern California.]]
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| − | [[File:scec.eew.EEWTest.eewTest_SHAKEMAP-Test_ZoomEvent10736069.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 4: Plotting of ShakeMap observation data for Event in Southern California.]]
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| − | [[File:Define_Reference_Events.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 5: Travel time curves show region for which no warnings are possible because of travel time and processing delays.]]
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| − | [[File:shakemap_color_scale.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 6: ShakeMap color scale shows instrumental intensity estimates or observations.]]
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| − | [[Image:GroundMotionEvaluation.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 6: Scheme for comparing PGV and PGA values.]]
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| − | [[Image:EEWDisplay.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 6: Prototype ShakeAlert Display (Image Credit: Kalpesh Solanki)]]
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| − | [[Image:CA_Eq_Probability_by_Mag.jpg|340px|thumb|right|Fig 7: CA EQ Probabilities by Magnitude]]
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| − | [[Image:CISN_EQ_Example.jpg|340px|thumb|right|Fig 8: CISN EQ Example of Warning Times.]]
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| − | == Catalog Comparison ==
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| − | We looked at current eew results on the CISN algorithm testing site [http://scecdata.usc.edu/earlywarning/ CISN EEW Algorithm Testing Site]]. The web system provides several summaries. We compared the earthquakes on two summaries available on the web site which are: (1) Catalog summary and (2) Cumulative Trigger Summary. EEW system list of ANSS events against ANSS list of triggers.
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| − | To interpret these trigger summaries were designed to compare eew performance anywhere in california. The ANSS earthquake catalog is the reference observational data.
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| − | The EEW algorithm testing system filters the catalog to include only earthquakes within California region. We based the EEW California region on the CSEP region. There are two regions defined. California testing region. In this region, the systems are expected to forecast earthquakes, or provide EEW alerts. There is a slightly larger region which is the catalog region. When we retrieve the catalog and we restrict our request to a region, we may miss earthquakes right on the edge due to uncertainties in the earthquake locations. So we use a reference earthquake data set from a slightly larger region, the catalog region.
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| − | These cumulative summaries work on the site, but they are so large now, with multple years of info that it produces multi-MB htlm files. We don't have good parsing of these, but we worked with data from these two summaries retrieved on 12 Oct 2010.
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| − | We found that he catalog list has two events not included in the trigger list. I believe these in the region between the testing region and the catalog region. The two catalog events are listed:
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| − | NC 71330090 1/4/2010 14:24:54 4.12 40.2773 -123.868 30.74
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| − | CI 14858988 10/12/2010 3:00:34 4.27 32.1582 -115.29 5.58
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| − | We need to confirm this one is plausible (32.1582,-115.29) but this is in Humbolt (40.2773,-123.868)so it is not out of the teting region. This discrpency between ANSS events in the two lists remains.
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| − | The total events in the trigger list is 146 (1Jan2010 through 12Oct2010)
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| − | == CTC Abstract for SCEC Annual Meeting 2010 ==
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| − | Testing Regional-scale Ground Motion Estimates for the CISN ShakeAlert Project
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| − | Philip Maechling, Maria Liukis, Thomas H. Jordan
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| − | Our SCEC research team has developed initial capabilities of the CISN Testing Center (CTC) as a part of the USGS-funded CISN ShakeAlert Project. The CTC is designed to compare regional-scale ground motion estimates, such as peak ground motion estimates, against observed ground motion data, for significant California Earthquakes. The CTC is designed to identify which ShakeAlert ground motion estimation methods produce the best fit to observed ground motions.
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| − | Scientific goals of the CTC include (a) development of consensus among SCEC researchers on meaningful measures of comparison between ground motion estimates and observations, (b) collection and analysis of ShakeAlert performance information, and (c) integration of standard Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) terms and practices into EEW. The technical goal of the CTC is to develop an automated system that can comparing ground motion estimates against ground motion observations. The CTC system used the CSEP testing framework to automate the evaluation of CISN ShakeAlert rapid earthquake parameters including ground motion forecasts for each event.
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| − | As part of this year’s CTC development, we updated the CSEP Testing Framework to use the USGS ShakeMap RSS Feed as an authorized source of event-based ground motion observations. As ShakeAlert systems produces rapid ground motion estimates for significant California events, the CTC will evaluate those ShakeAlert ground motion estimates against CISN ground motion observation using goodness-of-fit algorithms defined by CISN scientific groups.
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| − | Our ShakeAlert ground motion forecast testing shares scientific and technical goals with several other SCEC activities including validation of attenuation relationships, synthetic ShakeMaps, velocity model and wave propagation model goodness of fit measures, and short term ground motion forecast testing. The CTC system is designed to support CISN ShakeAlert testing and to also be applicable for evaluation of other ground motion estimation methods.
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| − | [[File:eew1.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 7: JMA diagram showing EEW concepts and types of EEW system implementations.]]
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| − | [[File:eew2.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 8: JMA diagram showing potential users of EEW ground motion forecasts.]]
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| − | [[File:SanFranciscoChronicleSciSecFig.jpg|340px|thumb|right|Fig 9: San Francisco Chronicle graphic showing EEW concepts in California.]]
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| − | [[File:EEWsuperhero.jpg|340px|thumb|right|Fig 10: Japanese Public EEW Awareness Information.]]
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| − | [[File:CAstations_Optimal.png|340px|thumb|right|Fig 11: Current and proposed station locations for CISN.]]
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| − | == Additional ShakeAlert Information ==
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| | *[http://www.cisn.org/ CISN Home Page] | | *[http://www.cisn.org/ CISN Home Page] |
| − | *[http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2366&from=rss_home USGS ShakeAlert Press Release] | + | *[http://eew.caltech.edu/ Caltech EEW Page] |
| − | *[http://www.seismolab.caltech.edu/ Caltech Seismo Lab] | + | *[http://www.seismolab.caltech.edu/index.html Caltech Seismology] |
| − | *[http://seismo.berkeley.edu/ U.C. Berkeley Seismo Lab] | + | *[http://seismo.berkeley.edu/ U.C. Berkeley Seismological Station] |
| | *[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/sca/ USGS Pasadena Seismic Network Operations] | | *[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/sca/ USGS Pasadena Seismic Network Operations] |
| | *[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/ USGS Menlo Park Seismic Network Operations] | | *[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/ USGS Menlo Park Seismic Network Operations] |
| | + | *[http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/index_EN Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich] |
| | + | *[http://www.scec.org/ Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)] |
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| − | == ShakeAlert CTC Software Stack Description == | + | == California Earthquake Information == |
| − | The following packages contribute to the software stack used by EEW software:
| + | *[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/ CISN Recent Earthquakes] |
| − | | + | *[http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/ USGS ShakeMap] |
| − | *awk
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| − | *sed
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| − | *java
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| − | *python and it's external libraries: matplotlib, basemap, numpy, scipy, xml | |
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| − | == See Also == | + | == Related Entries == |
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| − | *[http://qcn.stanford.edu/ Quake Catcher Network] | + | *[[EEW Evaluation]] |
| | + | *[[CSEP]] |
| | + | *[[Main Page]] |
