CSEP Minutes 10-03-2018: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 23:37, 19 October 2018

Friday meeting with Ned F. @ USC. Will walk through UCERF3 simulations before running production copies.
simulations will be used for developing evaluations for stochastic event sets and gathering information
Talking about forecast horizon for official forecasts
- New Zealand: 1d, 1w, 3mo, 1yr, etc. based on time since aftershock
- CEA: interested in short-term and 1yr
idea: start u3etas in 1985(?) and march forward updating at pre-defined intervals (regular or in-response to earthquake)
question: how do we perform quantitative comparisons between models?
- likelihood
- psuedo-likelihood (moving back to grid)
immediate: turing tests & u3etas-simulations
outstanding problems:
- 1. reproducibility issues within ComCat, should be solved by the USGS
- 2. comparative testing of models

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 [[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br><br>
+* Friday meeting with Ned F. @ USC. Will walk through UCERF3 simulations before running production copies.
+* simulations will be used for developing evaluations for stochastic event sets and gathering information
+* Talking about forecast horizon for official forecasts
+** New Zealand: 1d, 1w, 3mo, 1yr, etc. based on time since aftershock
+** CEA: interested in short-term and 1yr
+* idea: start u3etas in 1985(?) and march forward updating at pre-defined intervals (regular or in-response to earthquake)
+* question: how do we perform quantitative comparisons between models?
+** likelihood
+** psuedo-likelihood (moving back to grid)
+* immediate: turing tests & u3etas-simulations
+* outstanding problems:
+** 1. reproducibility issues within ComCat, should be solved by the USGS
+** 2. comparative testing of models