CSEP Minutes 10-03-2018
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Jump to navigationJump to searchParticipants: N. Field, A. Michael, J. Gilchrist, M. Werner, W. Savran, and D. Rhoades
- Friday meeting with Ned F. @ USC. Will walk through UCERF3 simulations before running production copies.
- simulations will be used for developing evaluations for stochastic event sets and gathering information
- Talking about forecast horizon for official forecasts
- New Zealand: 1d, 1w, 3mo, 1yr, etc. based on time since aftershock
- CEA: interested in short-term and 1yr
- idea: start u3etas in 1985(?) and march forward updating at pre-defined intervals (regular or in-response to earthquake)
- question: how do we perform quantitative comparisons between models?
- likelihood
- psuedo-likelihood (moving back to grid)
- immediate: turing tests & u3etas-simulations
- outstanding problems:
- 1. reproducibility issues within ComCat, should be solved by the USGS
- 2. comparative testing of models
