CSEP Minutes 02-12-2019

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Participants: D. Jackson, W. Savran, J. Gilchrest, D. Rhoades, N. Field, and P. Maechling

  • Present updated M-test based on Kilmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling statistics.
  • Potential issue with distribution-based evaluations for catalogs containing few events.
  • Optionally switch to magnitude-independent formulation (Chi-Square or M-test based on event counts in magnitude bins). Might incorporate correlations based on GR statistics.
  • Developed figure showing the Mw relationships for stochastic event sets. This should likely be shown as a survival function instead.
  • Poissonian error bars on MFD plots, would be larger for the larger events.
    • If bins were independent we could get joint probability by multiplying probabilities, but in practice we have correlated errors.
    • Roger Mussen talks about b-values and deals with these same issues, variations in MFD due to measured magnitudes. Looking at error distribution can define correlation function between magnitudes.
  • In the synthetic test for true null hypothesis, empirical distribution should be the same as analytical.
  • Comment about plots, should use the GR plots using the complimentary distribution. Probably should include errors in the catalog.
  • Think about tests and show them in a presentable way to outsiders.
  • Make poster for IUGG. Look up deadline, possible Feb. 18.