Moved:SCEC UGMS Committee Meeting 4

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SCEC Committee for Utilization of Ground Motion Simulations Meeting 4
Organizers: C.B. Crouse (AECOM) and Tom Jordan (SCEC/USC)
Date: Monday, May 4, 2015 (10:00-15:30)
Location: SCEC Media Room (ZHS 165), USC, Los Angeles, CA
Participants: 24 (by invitation only)

Agenda

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking each title. PLEASE NOTE: Slides are the author's property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

10:00 Welcome and introductions
10:15 Introductory Remarks and Meeting Agenda (see Handout) C.B. Crouse
10:30 New Code Cycle (Project 17, BSSC Issue Teams, ASCE 7 SSC) C.B. Crouse
10:45 Overview of SCEC CyberShake Platform Tom Jordan
11:00 Update on SCEC CyberShake Progress Phil Maechling
11:30 Calculation of Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake Response Spectra (MCER) Scott Callaghan
12:00 Lunch
13:00 Southern California MCER Sa(T) maps – CyberShake vs. 2013 NGA West2
- CyberShake & NGA West2 Sa maps for T = 3, 5, & 10 sec
- Ratio Maps (CyberShake/NGA West2) for each T
- Discussion
Kevin Milner
13:30 Calculation of v15.4 Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake Response Spectra (MCER) at 14 Southern California Sites (T = 2 – 10 sec) Scott Callaghan
14:00 Effect of Near-Surface Geology
- SCEC Thick Surface Layer with Constant Material Properties vs. Realistic Model with Depth-Dependent Material Properties
- Results of 1-D Site Response with Both Models
- Discussion
C.B. Crouse
14:30 Break
14:45 Technical Issues, Logistics, & Schedule for Producing Long Period MCER Maps for L.A. Region in Short Term (e.g., Possible supplement to ASCE 7-16 for City of L.A.) and Long Term (2021 NEHRP & 2022 ASCE 7) C.B. Crouse
15:00 Future Work for CyberShake Tom Jordan
15:15 Results to be Presented and Tentative Dates for Next UGMS Meeting
15:30 Adjourn

Participants

Member Attendees (in person)
C.B. Crouse - chair
John Anderson
Rob Graves
John Hooper
Marty Hudson
Tom Jordan
Charlie Kircher
Nico Luco
Paul Somerville
Member Attendees (remotely)
Jack Baker
Jacobo Bielak
Art Frankel
Members Absent
Norm Abrahamson
Bob Bachman
Ron Hamburger
Curt Haselton
Lew Marshall
Farzad Naeim
Observers
Domniki Asimaki
Nenad Bijelic
Scott Callaghan
Tran Huynh
Ting Lin
Phil Maechling
Kevin Milner
Morgan Moschetti
Kim Olsen
Sanaz Rezaeian
Andreas Skarlatoudis
Ricardo Taborda



Results

PSHA Hazard Curves & MCER Curves

Map of MCER Study Sites. Purple sites are along a 10 km x 10 km mesh, orange sites are near SCSN broadband stations, and yellow sites are locations of interest.
PSHA Hazard Curves MCER Curves
Study Sites (KML file) CyberShake v14.2 CyberShake v15.4 CyberShake v14.2 CyberShake v15.4
CCP
Center City Plaza
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
COO
Compton
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
LADT
Los Angeles Downtown
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
LAPD
Lake Palmdale
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
p22
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
PAS
Pasadena
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
s429
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
s603
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
s684
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
s758
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
SBSM
San Bernardino Strong Motion
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
SMCA
Santa Monica Civic Auditorium
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
STNI
710/90 Interchange
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
WNGC
Whittier Narrows Golf Course
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 7.5s, 10s Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results
Probabilistic MCER
Deterministic MCER
Combined Results
Overall Results



MCER Maps (CyberShake v14.2)

Period Probabilistic MCER Deterministic MCER Deterministic Lower Limit Combined MCER results
3 Second
RotD100
Rotd100 3s prob mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 3s det mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 3s det lower limit psv contours.png Rotd100 3s combined mcer psv contours.png
5 Second
RotD100
Rotd100 5s prob mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 5s det mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 5s det lower limit psv contours.png Rotd100 5s combined mcer psv contours.png
10 Second
RotD100
Rotd100 10s prob mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 10s det mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 10s det lower limit psv contours.png Rotd100 10s combined mcer psv contours.png



GMPE Comparison Maps (CyberShake v14.2)

Period CyberShake Combined MCER GMPE Combined MCER Ratio (CyberShake/GMPE)
3 Second
RotD100
Rotd100 3s combined mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 3s gmpe combined mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 3s gmpe combined ratio contours.png
5 Second
RotD100
Rotd100 5s combined mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 5s gmpe combined mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 5s gmpe combined ratio contours.png
10 Second
RotD100
Rotd100 10s combined mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 10s gmpe combined mcer psv contours.png Rotd100 10s gmpe combined ratio contours.png



CyberShake Action Items

  1. Plan CyberShake UCERF3 with initial runs 2015
  2. Run forward simulation of selected CyberShake ruptures to evaluate assumption of linear ground motion response.
  3. Clarify Deterministic MCER calculations with USGS.
  4. With Rob, modify hypocenter location probabilities to taper few hypocenters near top of fault.
  5. Discuss with Jacobo the large displacement he’s seeing in MCER results.
  6. Define a procedure for “approving” CyberShake result, short of publishing. Maybe define a series of stages to put a computational result through as they get checked
  7. Send out notification when we “certify” CyberShake 15.4 results
  8. Send out notification when we complete and certify CS 15.4 all sites and maps.
  9. Consider adding Alhambra Site City Emergency Response Center 10 Story Steel moment frame building.

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