Difference between revisions of "CSEP Minutes 10-03-2018"

From SCECpedia
Jump to navigationJump to search
 
(One intermediate revision by the same user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
 
[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br><br>
 
[[CSEP_Working_Group|CSEP Working Group Home Page]]<br><br>
  
'Participants:' N. Field, A. Michael, J. Gilchrist, M. Werner, W. Savran, and D. Rhoades
+
''Participants:'' N. Field, A. Michael, J. Gilchrist, M. Werner, W. Savran, and D. Rhoades
  
 
* Friday meeting with Ned F. @ USC. Will walk through UCERF3 simulations before running production copies.
 
* Friday meeting with Ned F. @ USC. Will walk through UCERF3 simulations before running production copies.

Latest revision as of 23:39, 19 October 2018

CSEP Working Group Home Page

Participants: N. Field, A. Michael, J. Gilchrist, M. Werner, W. Savran, and D. Rhoades

  • Friday meeting with Ned F. @ USC. Will walk through UCERF3 simulations before running production copies.
  • simulations will be used for developing evaluations for stochastic event sets and gathering information
  • Talking about forecast horizon for official forecasts
    • New Zealand: 1d, 1w, 3mo, 1yr, etc. based on time since aftershock
    • CEA: interested in short-term and 1yr
  • idea: start u3etas in 1985(?) and march forward updating at pre-defined intervals (regular or in-response to earthquake)
  • question: how do we perform quantitative comparisons between models?
    • likelihood
    • psuedo-likelihood (moving back to grid)
  • immediate: turing tests & u3etas-simulations
  • outstanding problems:
    • 1. reproducibility issues within ComCat, should be solved by the USGS
    • 2. comparative testing of models