CyberShake Workplan

Goal:

PSHA-3DWP hazard curve anywhere in California and an expression of uncertainties for any hazard curve. Create basis for operational 3DWP ground motion forecasting system. General approach usable anywhere in the world

Proposed Development Phases

Due to the very large scale of the calculation, we plan to coordinate the first production CyberShake California 1.0Hz map on the official release of UCERF3.0 in June 2012.

1. CyberShake 1.0 production run competed in Oct 2009 used NCSA, TACC, USC HPCC. 3D wave propagation and other scientific software by Robert Graves with Globus, Condor DAGMan, and ISI Pegasus.

1. CyberShake 2.0 is an updated version of CyberShake based on UCERF2.0 with new capabilities including CVM and ERF for sites anywhere in California, background seismicity, and updated extended earthquake rupture forecast generator.

1. CyberShake 3.0 is based on UCERF3.0 and SCEC developed UCVM.

How to:

1. UCERF2.0 (then 3.0) used to create extended ERF
2. Create 3D velocity model by embedding high resolution background models.
3. Update CVM evaluation system to include up to 10 validation events.
4. Modify Olsen code to support SGT creation and seismogram synthesis

Example Value-Adds:

1. PAGER for any CyberShake event
2. Building response (18 story steel frame building) for full suite of rupture variations for specific events. Try for all Northridge variations.
3. Short-term ERF probabilities Adjustor (PA)
4. ShakeMap for any Rupture
5. Rupture Library:
6. Seismogram Library:

CyberShake Data Management (Primary Calculation)

1. Amplitudes, Waveforms, for any event in catalog
2. Maps
3. UCERF3.0 (ERF)
4. UCEERF3.0 (Extended ERF)
5. UCVM (Unified California Velocity Model)
6. Location of every sites.
7. Closest curve to any geographical site
8. GTL profile every site
9. Vertical profile for every site
10. All velocity meshes in simulation regions
11. All ruptures in simulation region
12. PSHA Maps (intensity measures include PGV, PSA2.0s, SA3,0,SA5,0,SA10.0)
13. PSHA Hazard Curves
14. Single component hazard curve
15. Disaggregrated Curves to identify ruptures based on any parameters
16. Rupture variations
17. Fault Geometries
18. Fault Maps
19. Elevation
20. Parameter plots (initial stress, hypocenter, final slip, slip rate, Supershear), and animations, of every SRF.
21. Hazard curve to rupture variation set to sorted amplitudes (by peak intensity measure, by distance) to amplitude values to seismograms for amplitudes to rupture variation to slip on rupture to velocity model used.
22. Ask questions about a site. What was simulation region, what was velocity model, what was rupture variation selection, what was peak amplitudes, what was different complements, what are smallest amplitudes

Software Infrastructure Issues:

1. Multiple codes
2. Check AWP-ODC implementation with a 1Hz version of Rob Graves code.
3. Show ability of both codes to get same answer at 0.5Hz and 1.0 Hz

EERF Issues

1. Automated conversion into and out of SRF format for Olsen code.
2. Background seismicity
3. Establish sufficient variability
4. Introduction of rise-time variability
5. Introduction of linked events

Site specific information

1. Sites in background regions

Validation

1. Comparison of CyberShake amplitudes to empirical amplitudes. Does cybershake reproduce the empirical distribution?
2. Validation of UCEERF
3. Validation of UCVM
4. Amplitude (and distribution) of CyberShake amps by distance compared against empirical attenuation relationship.
5. Spectral content of seismograms compared to observed seismograms
6. GOF for seismograms from rupture variations of historical earthquakes
7. Frequency content of rupture sources
8. Comparison of hazard curves to precarious rocks sites
9. Comparison of seismograms to “unusual records” including I-10/I-215, Northridge garden center, and santa monica and I-14 fallen freeways

Calculation Optimizations:

1. Create EERF:
2. Create set of statewide rupture variations
3. Create set sites
4. Map rupture variations to sites
5. Define minimum set of velocity meshes
6. Associate velocity mesh for each site
7. Combine seismogram extraction with peak amplitude calculation to output seismograms and peak amplitudes

Visualization Issues:

1. Need maps of ruptures and rupture variations.
2. Need maps showing simulation volume and ruptures in the simulation volume.

Data Management Issues

1. Develop computational data product dependency chart. Any time a new data model is created calculate resulting data products that use the data item. Then populate, as sparse storage, those data products as they are calculated.

Query Capabilities Needed

1. Create a Simulation Description Request Format:
2. Data Request Format:
3. Name:
4. User:
   1. Data Builder
   2. Parser
   3. Verifier
   4. Reducer
   5. Annotator
   6. Packer
   7. Notifier