Forecast Data

Links to existing SCEC Forecast Data Distribution Methods:

ETAS Forecast Data Prototype Site

• ETAS Forecast Data and Evaluations

Related Work

• Covid-cast Example
• Binder
• Extending FAIR Data to TRUST Principles

Earthquake Prediction Projects

• AI Predictions
• AETA Earthquake Prediction Project
• Brendan Meade Ml Forecasting
• Meade Conference Paper
• Meade Conference Paper

Existing ETAS Data Management Systems

• UCERF3-TD ETAS Studies
• Github Repo with CSEP Evaluations of ETAS forecasts
• [/home/scec-06/kmilner/ucerf3/etas_sim/2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces/ Milner et al 2020 Ridgecrest ETAS Forecasts]
• [/home/scec-06/wsavran/working/ucerf3-ridgecrest Savran et al 2020 Ridgecrest ETAS Forecast]

Example Results Directory

-bash-4.2$ du -sh 2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces 
36G	2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces

-bash-4.2$ ls -alh 2019_09_04*
2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces:
total 36G
drwxr-sr-x   3 kmilner lc_pjm 4.0K Oct 31 10:10 .
drwxr-sr-x 455 kmilner lc_pjm  40K Dec  7 10:20 ..
drwxr-sr-x   2 kmilner lc_pjm 4.0K Oct 31 10:10 config_input_plots
-rw-r--r--   1 kmilner lc_pjm  77K Oct 31 10:06 config.json
-rw-r--r--   1 kmilner lc_pjm 2.5K Oct 31 10:10 etas_sim_mpj.slurm
-rw-r--r--   1 kmilner lc_pjm    0 Oct 31 10:10 etas_sim_mpj.slurm.e4413437
-rw-r--r--   1 kmilner lc_pjm  66M Oct 31 09:55 etas_sim_mpj.slurm.o4413437
-rw-r--r--   1 kmilner lc_pjm  70M Oct 31 09:53 opensha-ucerf3-all.jar
-rw-r--r--   1 kmilner lc_pjm  36G Oct 30 23:37 results_complete.bin
-rw-r--r--   1 kmilner lc_pjm 162M Oct 31 09:48 results_m5_preserve_chain.bin

Github repo

Project source code and files are collected in a SCEC public github repository.

• Forecast Data Management Github Repo

Forecast Data Descriptions

• CyberShake Data
• UCERF3/ETAS/RSQSim Data
• CSEP Data Description

Forecast Data Listings

ETAS Simulation Data:

• ShakeMap Surface Comparisons
• OpenSHA ETAS
• Weekly Summary
• ShakeMap Summary

UCERF Project Data:

• OpenSHA Software
• UCERF3 Distribution
• UCERF3 Website

CSEP Project Data:

• CSEP Project Website

Ground Motion Simulation Project Data:

• High-F Results
• UGMS User Community
• Engineer Oriented Data Distribution Site
• GIS-based interface to Hazard Maps

Event Response Data:

• Event Response Dataset
• Simulation on Demand

Broadband Platform Data:

• Broadband Simulation Results

Data Sharing Methods

• Predictability Workshop Report
• USGS Fundamental Practices
• DOE ECP IDEAS Talks
• DOE Containers for Software Reproduciblity Webinar

Related Projects

Data Discovery CI:

• Deriva Project
• Research Community Data Discovery Platforms

Reproducibility Projects:

• WholeTale Project

Trustworthy Computing Projects:

• Trustworthy Forecast Project

Software Institute

• Software Institute

Rapid Hazard Response Projects

• Rapid Response Projects

Time Series Forecasting Service

• Time Series Forecasting Services

Controlled environment for exchanging and comparing optimization algorithms.

• Coredev Project Site

Seismic Hazard User Base Estimates

• Geohazard Projects
• Geohazard Research and Users Community Overview

• We have these estimates of the user base for products that come out of CISM and CSEP. And how those numbers are documented. UCERF3-ETAS: 5-10 people currently look at raw simulation results. If we create a full operational system, it would potentially have broad user base, but it's currently in a research mode and only shared with interested and sophisticated users.
• UCERF3+ Inversions: The inversion results will be looked at by the core WGCEP team and shared with the scientific review panel, so probably 5-10 diving in and looking at detailed results, ~30 looking at summary plots. The New Zealand team would likely be interested in these capabilities as well, which could double the user base.RSQSim: Likely always a small group, <10 looking at RSQSim results and downstream products (ground motion simulations)
• With the RISE experiment gearing up and many new modelers looking to get their models tested, and assuming that UCERF3/4 goes under prospective testing I expect between 20-30 people will be interested in looking at individual forecast and evaluation results. An additional ~10 would be interested in looking at aggregate results, such as the cumulative tests (ie., types of results that could be a publication figure), but I don’t have a good handle on those numbers. Like with the UCERF3 results, the potential user base would probably increase depending on the availability of the data products and simulations results.

NSF Solicitations Site

• Mid-scale Research Infrastructure - 1 Solicitation
• Mid-scale Research Infrastructure - 2 Solicitation
• NSF Geoscience opportunities
• HarnessingDataRevolution
• NSF CISE DCL Big Ideas

Related Entries

• CME_Project