Difference between revisions of "Moved:CyberShake MCER"

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{{#externalredirect: https://www.scec.org/workshops/2014/ugms-nov}}
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For the Utilization Committee meeting on November 3, 2014, we are preparing probabilistic and deterministic MCER results using the CyberShake dataset.
 
For the Utilization Committee meeting on November 3, 2014, we are preparing probabilistic and deterministic MCER results using the CyberShake dataset.
  
  
−
== Meeting ==
+
== Meeting Program (November 3, 2014) ==
 +
''Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking each title. PLEASE NOTE: Slides are the author's property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.''
  
−
November 3, 2013 meeting agenda is available [http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/Agenda_v3.docx here].
+
{|
 +
! width=" 50px" align="left" |
 +
! width="500px" align="left" |
 +
! width="200px" align="left" |
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 10:00
 +
| Welcome and Attendee Introductions
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 10:10
 +
| Introductory Remarks & Meeting Agenda
 +
| C.B. Crouse & Tom Jordan
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 10:20
 +
| Review of UGMS Mission & Progress
 +
| C.B. Crouse
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 10:30
 +
| [[Media:1020_Jordan.pdf|Short Review of CyberShake]]
 +
| Tom Jordan
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 11:00
 +
| [[Media:1100_Crouse.pdf|Description of Calculations of Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake Response Spectra (MCER) at 14 Southern California Sites]]
 +
| C.B. Crouse
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 11:15
 +
| [http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/MCER_results_presentation.pdf Introduction to CyberShake and NGA MCER Results]<br>(HANDOUT: [[Media:UGMS_Meeting_Handout.pdf|Selected study sites with velocity information]])
 +
| Scott Callaghan
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 12:00
 +
| Lunch
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 13:00
 +
| Discussion of CyberShake and [[CyberShake_MCER#Results|NGA MCER Results]]
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 14:00
 +
| Future Work to Enhance CyberShake<br>- Extend to T = 1 sec<br>- Investigate effect of near surface geology<br>- Earthquake source modeling<br>- Coordination with TAGs and NGA West2 enhancements
 +
| C.B. Crouse
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 15:00
 +
| Schedule for Producing Long Period MCER Maps for L.A. Region
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 15:15
 +
| Results to be presented and tentative dates for next UGMS Meeting
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
| 15:30
 +
| Adjourn
 +
|
 +
|}
  
−
The handout for the meeting with a map of the sites and velocity information is available here:  [[File:UGMS Meeting Handout.pdf]]
+
{|
−
 
+
! width="200px" align="left" |
−
A presentation to introduce and explain the MCER results is available [http://hypocenter.usc.edu/research/cybershake/11_14_UGMS_Meeting/MCER_results_presentation.pdf here].
+
! width="200px" align="left" |
 +
! width="200px" align="left" |
 +
! width="200px" align="left" |
 +
|
 +
|-valign="top"
 +
|<u>Member Attendees (in person)</u><br>C.B. Crouse - chair<br>Tom Jordan<br>Nico Luco<br>Bob Bachman<br>John Anderson<br>John Hooper<br>Jacobo Bielak<br>Marty Hudson<br>
 +
|<u>Member Attendees (remotely)</u><br>Jack Baker<br>Art Frankel<br>Norm Abrahamson<br>
 +
|<u>Members Absent</u><br>Paul Somerville<br>John Anderson<br>Charlie Kirchner<br>Ron Hamburger<br>Rob Graves<br>Farzad Naeim<br>Curt Haselton<br>Marshall Lew<br>
 +
|<u>Observers</u><br>Andreas Skarlatoudis<br>Kevin Milner<br>Morgan Moschetti<br>Nenad Bijelic<br>Scott Callaghan<br>Greg Deierlein<br>Phil Maechling<br>Ting Lin<br>Sanaz Rezaeian<br>Tran Huynh
 +
|}
  
 
== Study Sites ==
 
== Study Sites ==
Line 23: Line 87:
 
Plots for each of the 14 sites are available in the following table.
 
Plots for each of the 14 sites are available in the following table.
  
 +
== CyberShake MCER Curves ==
 
{| border="1"
 
{| border="1"
 
! Site
 
! Site
 +
! Full name
 
! Probabilistic MCER
 
! Probabilistic MCER
 
! Deterministic MCER
 
! Deterministic MCER
Line 31: Line 97:
 
|-
 
|-
 
! CCP
 
! CCP
 +
! Century City Plaza
 
| [[File:CCP_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
| [[File:CCP_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
| [[File:CCP_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
| [[File:CCP_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
−
| [[File:CCP_comb_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
+
| [[File:CCP_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
| [[File:CCP_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
| [[File:CCP_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! COO
 +
! Compton
 +
| [[File:COO_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:COO_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:COO_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:COO_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! LADT
 +
! Los Angeles Downtown
 +
| [[File:LADT_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:LADT_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:LADT_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:LADT_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! LAPD
 +
! Lake Palmdale
 +
| [[File:LAPD_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:LAPD_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:LAPD_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:LAPD_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! P22
 +
! P22
 +
| [[File:P22_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:P22_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:P22_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:P22_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! PAS
 +
! Pasadena
 +
| [[File:PAS_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:PAS_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:PAS_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:PAS_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! s429
 +
! s429
 +
| [[File:s429_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s429_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s429_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s429_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! s603
 +
! s603
 +
| [[File:s603_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s603_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s603_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s603_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! s684
 +
! s684
 +
| [[File:s684_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s684_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s684_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s684_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! s758
 +
! s758
 +
| [[File:s758_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s758_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s758_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:s758_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! SBSM
 +
! San Bernardino Strong Motion
 +
| [[File:SBSM_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:SBSM_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:SBSM_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:SBSM_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! SMCA
 +
! Santa Monica Civic Auditorium
 +
| [[File:SMCA_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:SMCA_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:SMCA_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:SMCA_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! STNI
 +
! 710/90 Interchange
 +
| [[File:STNI_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:STNI_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:STNI_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:STNI_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
|-
 +
! WNGC
 +
! Whitter Narrows Golf Course
 +
| [[File:WNGC_prob_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:WNGC_det_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:WNGC_combined_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 +
| [[File:WNGC_overall_MCER.png|thumb|200px]]
 
|}
 
|}
  
Line 105: Line 263:
 
# NGA (2014): lower of probabilistic MCER and (higher of deterministic and ASCE deterministic lower limit).
 
# NGA (2014): lower of probabilistic MCER and (higher of deterministic and ASCE deterministic lower limit).
 
# ASCE 7-10 Ch 11.4
 
# ASCE 7-10 Ch 11.4
 +
 +
=== GMPE Background Seismicity Sensitivity ===
 +
 +
Members of the UGMS committee requested a comparison of probabilistic RTGM spectra for the GMPEs with and without UCERF2 background seismicity included. As CyberShake does not currently consider background seismicity, this to test the assumption that the contribution from background seismicity is negligable in the Los Angeles region. These calculations use the average of the 2014 NGAWest2 GMPEs, excluding Idriss.
 +
 +
Download a zip file with results for all 14 sites here: [[Media:Gmpe_back_seis_compare.zip]].
 +
 +
The result for the LADT site is shown below.
 +
 +
[[File:LADT_run2657_GMPE_BackSeisCompare_RotD100.png|500px|thumb|left|GMPE RTGM Spectrum for LADT with and without background seismicity.]]
 +
 +
=== MCER Maps ===
 +
 +
CyberShake MCER maps, interpolated between 286 CyberShake sites.
 +
 +
{| border="1"
 +
! Period
 +
! Probabilistic MCER
 +
! Deterministic MCER
 +
! Deterministic Lower Limit
 +
! Combined MCER results
 +
|-
 +
! 3 Second, RotD100
 +
| [[File:rotd100_3s_prob_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_3s_det_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_3s_det_lower_limit_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_3s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
|-
 +
! 5 Second, RotD100
 +
| [[File:rotd100_5s_prob_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_5s_det_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_5s_det_lower_limit_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_5s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
|-
 +
! 10 Second, RotD100
 +
| [[File:rotd100_10s_prob_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_10s_det_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_10s_det_lower_limit_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_10s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|250px]]
 +
|}
 +
 +
==== GMPE Comparisons ====
 +
 +
{| border="1"
 +
! Period
 +
! CyberShake Combined MCER
 +
! GMPE Combined MCER
 +
! Ratio (CyberShake/GMPE)
 +
|-
 +
! 3 Second, RotD100
 +
| [[File:rotd100_3s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_3s_gmpe_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_3s_gmpe_combined_ratio_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
|-
 +
! 5 Second, RotD100
 +
| [[File:rotd100_5s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_5s_gmpe_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_5s_gmpe_combined_ratio_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
|-
 +
! 10 Second, RotD100
 +
| [[File:rotd100_10s_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_10s_gmpe_combined_mcer_psv_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
| [[File:rotd100_10s_gmpe_combined_ratio_contours.png|thumb|350px]]
 +
|}

Latest revision as of 21:01, 26 February 2018

{{#externalredirect: https://www.scec.org/workshops/2014/ugms-nov}}

For the Utilization Committee meeting on November 3, 2014, we are preparing probabilistic and deterministic MCER results using the CyberShake dataset.


Meeting Program (November 3, 2014)

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking each title. PLEASE NOTE: Slides are the author's property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

10:00 Welcome and Attendee Introductions
10:10 Introductory Remarks & Meeting Agenda C.B. Crouse & Tom Jordan
10:20 Review of UGMS Mission & Progress C.B. Crouse
10:30 Short Review of CyberShake Tom Jordan
11:00 Description of Calculations of Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake Response Spectra (MCER) at 14 Southern California Sites C.B. Crouse
11:15 Introduction to CyberShake and NGA MCER Results
(HANDOUT: Selected study sites with velocity information) 		Scott Callaghan
12:00 Lunch
13:00 Discussion of CyberShake and NGA MCER Results
14:00 Future Work to Enhance CyberShake
- Extend to T = 1 sec
- Investigate effect of near surface geology
- Earthquake source modeling
- Coordination with TAGs and NGA West2 enhancements 		C.B. Crouse
15:00 Schedule for Producing Long Period MCER Maps for L.A. Region
15:15 Results to be presented and tentative dates for next UGMS Meeting
15:30 Adjourn
Member Attendees (in person)
C.B. Crouse - chair
Tom Jordan
Nico Luco
Bob Bachman
John Anderson
John Hooper
Jacobo Bielak
Marty Hudson
 Member Attendees (remotely)
Jack Baker
Art Frankel
Norm Abrahamson
 Members Absent
Paul Somerville
John Anderson
Charlie Kirchner
Ron Hamburger
Rob Graves
Farzad Naeim
Curt Haselton
Marshall Lew
 Observers
Andreas Skarlatoudis
Kevin Milner
Morgan Moschetti
Nenad Bijelic
Scott Callaghan
Greg Deierlein
Phil Maechling
Ting Lin
Sanaz Rezaeian
Tran Huynh

Study Sites

MCER Sites 2014.png

We are calculating MCER results for 14 sites, available in a KML file Image to the right shows the location of the MCER 2014 study sites. These sites can be plotted using the following KML file:

Near surface information about these sites includes Vs30, Z1.0, Z2.5 Values. These values are used in GMPE calculations for these sites. Site names, locations, and near surface values are listed in the following file.

Results

Plots for each of the 14 sites are available in the following table.

CyberShake MCER Curves

Site Full name Probabilistic MCER Deterministic MCER Combined MCER results Overall MCER results
CCP Century City Plaza
CCP prob MCER.png
CCP det MCER.png
CCP combined MCER.png
CCP overall MCER.png
COO Compton
COO prob MCER.png
COO det MCER.png
COO combined MCER.png
COO overall MCER.png
LADT Los Angeles Downtown
LADT prob MCER.png
LADT det MCER.png
LADT combined MCER.png
LADT overall MCER.png
LAPD Lake Palmdale
LAPD prob MCER.png
LAPD det MCER.png
LAPD combined MCER.png
LAPD overall MCER.png
P22 P22
P22 prob MCER.png
P22 det MCER.png
P22 combined MCER.png
P22 overall MCER.png
PAS Pasadena
PAS prob MCER.png
PAS det MCER.png
PAS combined MCER.png
PAS overall MCER.png
s429 s429
S429 prob MCER.png
S429 det MCER.png
S429 combined MCER.png
S429 overall MCER.png
s603 s603
S603 prob MCER.png
S603 det MCER.png
S603 combined MCER.png
S603 overall MCER.png
s684 s684
S684 prob MCER.png
S684 det MCER.png
S684 combined MCER.png
S684 overall MCER.png
s758 s758
S758 prob MCER.png
S758 det MCER.png
S758 combined MCER.png
S758 overall MCER.png
SBSM San Bernardino Strong Motion
SBSM prob MCER.png
SBSM det MCER.png
SBSM combined MCER.png
SBSM overall MCER.png
SMCA Santa Monica Civic Auditorium
SMCA prob MCER.png
SMCA det MCER.png
SMCA combined MCER.png
SMCA overall MCER.png
STNI 710/90 Interchange
STNI prob MCER.png
STNI det MCER.png
STNI combined MCER.png
STNI overall MCER.png
WNGC Whitter Narrows Golf Course
WNGC prob MCER.png
WNGC det MCER.png
WNGC combined MCER.png
WNGC overall MCER.png


More details about each plot type are provided below.


Probabilistic MCER Results

UGMS map.jpg

CyberShake probabilistic MCER results for the 14 sites. This also contains comparable RotD100 results for the 2008 and 2014 NGAs.

This zip file contains pseudo spectral velocity plots for the probabilistic results.

Metadata for these results include:

  • CyberShake Model: Study 14.2
  • Velocity Model: CVM-S4.26
  • Earthquake Rupture Forecast: UCERF2
  • Rupture Generator: GP 2010
  • Background Seismicity: None
  • RotD100 Software: Modified BBP RotD50
  • GMPE 2008 GMRotI50 to RotD100 conversion factors: See spreadsheet
  • GMPE 2014 RotD50 to RotD100 conversion factors: See spreadsheet

Disaggregation Plots

We disaggregated the CyberShake and NGA hazard curves at 3 seconds and plotted the top 10 contributors for each site. These plots are available here: Disaggregation Plots

Background Seismicity Plots

To determine the impact of background seismicity, we calculated the contributions of on-fault and background seismicity to the NGA hazard curves. These plots are available here: Background Seismicity Contribution Plots


Deterministic MCER Results

Zoomed map.png

CyberShake deterministic MCER results for the 14 sites, along with comparable results for the 2008 and 2014 NGA models.

This zip file contains pseudo spectral velocity plots for the deterministic results.

Metadata for these results include:

  • CyberShake Model: Study 14.2
  • Velocity Model: CVM-S4.26
  • Earthquake Rupture Forecast: UCERF2
  • Rupture Generator: GP 2010
  • Background Seismicity: None
  • RotD100 Software: Modified BBP RotD50
  • GMPE 2008 GMRotI50 to RotD100 conversion factors: See probabilistic spreadsheet
  • GMPE 2014 RotD50 to RotD100 conversion factors: See probabilistic spreadsheet

Combined MCER Plots

From the probabilistic and deterministic results, we have produced combined MCER plots of two types, both plotting PSV at periods from 1-10 sec, using the probabilistic and deterministic results previously calculated for the 14 sites identified by the Utilization Committee.

Type A contains 5 curves for each site and are available in a zip file here: All combined plots (~400KB zip file containing PDF, PNG, and TXT files)

  1. average of the probabilistic NGAs (2014) without Idriss. This was obtained by averaging the 4 NGA hazard curves, then convolving with the fragility function.
  2. average of the deterministic NGAs (2014) without Idriss
  3. probabilistic MCER for Cybershake
  4. deterministic Cybershake
  5. ASCE 7-10 Det Lower Limit

Type B contains 3 curves for each site and are available in a zip file here: MCER combined plots (~300KB zip file containing PDF, PNG, and TXT files)

  1. CyberShake: lower of probabilistic MCER and (higher of deterministic and ASCE deterministic lower limit). For CyberShake, the probabilistic is always lower than the deterministic.
  2. NGA (2014): lower of probabilistic MCER and (higher of deterministic and ASCE deterministic lower limit).
  3. ASCE 7-10 Ch 11.4

GMPE Background Seismicity Sensitivity

Members of the UGMS committee requested a comparison of probabilistic RTGM spectra for the GMPEs with and without UCERF2 background seismicity included. As CyberShake does not currently consider background seismicity, this to test the assumption that the contribution from background seismicity is negligable in the Los Angeles region. These calculations use the average of the 2014 NGAWest2 GMPEs, excluding Idriss.

Download a zip file with results for all 14 sites here: Media:Gmpe_back_seis_compare.zip.

The result for the LADT site is shown below.

GMPE RTGM Spectrum for LADT with and without background seismicity.

MCER Maps

CyberShake MCER maps, interpolated between 286 CyberShake sites.

Period Probabilistic MCER Deterministic MCER Deterministic Lower Limit Combined MCER results
3 Second, RotD100
Rotd100 3s prob mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 3s det mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 3s det lower limit psv contours.png
Rotd100 3s combined mcer psv contours.png
5 Second, RotD100
Rotd100 5s prob mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 5s det mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 5s det lower limit psv contours.png
Rotd100 5s combined mcer psv contours.png
10 Second, RotD100
Rotd100 10s prob mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 10s det mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 10s det lower limit psv contours.png
Rotd100 10s combined mcer psv contours.png

GMPE Comparisons

Period CyberShake Combined MCER GMPE Combined MCER Ratio (CyberShake/GMPE)
3 Second, RotD100
Rotd100 3s combined mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 3s gmpe combined mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 3s gmpe combined ratio contours.png
5 Second, RotD100
Rotd100 5s combined mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 5s gmpe combined mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 5s gmpe combined ratio contours.png
10 Second, RotD100
Rotd100 10s combined mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 10s gmpe combined mcer psv contours.png
Rotd100 10s gmpe combined ratio contours.png
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