Difference between revisions of "Forecast Data"
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Links to existing SCEC Forecast Data Distribution Methods: | Links to existing SCEC Forecast Data Distribution Methods: | ||
| − | *ETAS Simulation Data: [http://opensha.usc.edu/ftp/kmilner/markdown/ucerf3-etas-results/ OpenSHA ETAS] | + | == ETAS Forecast Data Prototype Site == |
| + | * [https://forecast.derivacloud.org/chaise/recordset/#5/ETAS:Forecast@sort(RID) ETAS Forecast Data and Evaluations] | ||
| + | == Related Work == | ||
| + | *[https://cmu-delphi.github.io/covidcast/talks/evalcast/talk.html#(1) Covid-cast Example] | ||
| + | *[https://mybinder.org/ Binder] | ||
| + | *[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0486-7 Extending FAIR Data to TRUST Principles] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Earthquake Prediction Projects == | ||
| + | *[https://www.wired.co.uk/article/ai-predicting-earthquakes AI Predictions] | ||
| + | *[https://aeta.io/ AETA Earthquake Prediction Project] | ||
| + | *[https://hmsc.harvard.edu/-computational-scientist-brendan-meade Brendan Meade Ml Forecasting] | ||
| + | *[https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.03228 Meade Conference Paper] | ||
| + | *[http://approximateinference.org/2017/accepted/LindermanEtAl2017.pdf Meade Conference Paper] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Existing ETAS Data Management Systems == | ||
| + | *[http://opensha.usc.edu/ftp/kmilner/markdown/ucerf3-etas-results/2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces/index.html#comcat-data-comparisons UCERF3-TD ETAS Studies] | ||
| + | *[https://github.com/cseptesting/ridgecrest_evaluation_bssa Github Repo with CSEP Evaluations of ETAS forecasts] | ||
| + | *[/home/scec-06/kmilner/ucerf3/etas_sim/2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces/ Milner et al 2020 Ridgecrest ETAS Forecasts] | ||
| + | *[/home/scec-06/wsavran/working/ucerf3-ridgecrest Savran et al 2020 Ridgecrest ETAS Forecast] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Example Results Directory == | ||
| + | <pre> | ||
| + | -bash-4.2$ du -sh 2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces | ||
| + | 36G 2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces | ||
| + | |||
| + | -bash-4.2$ ls -alh 2019_09_04* | ||
| + | 2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces: | ||
| + | total 36G | ||
| + | drwxr-sr-x 3 kmilner lc_pjm 4.0K Oct 31 10:10 . | ||
| + | drwxr-sr-x 455 kmilner lc_pjm 40K Dec 7 10:20 .. | ||
| + | drwxr-sr-x 2 kmilner lc_pjm 4.0K Oct 31 10:10 config_input_plots | ||
| + | -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 77K Oct 31 10:06 config.json | ||
| + | -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 2.5K Oct 31 10:10 etas_sim_mpj.slurm | ||
| + | -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 0 Oct 31 10:10 etas_sim_mpj.slurm.e4413437 | ||
| + | -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 66M Oct 31 09:55 etas_sim_mpj.slurm.o4413437 | ||
| + | -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 70M Oct 31 09:53 opensha-ucerf3-all.jar | ||
| + | -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 36G Oct 30 23:37 results_complete.bin | ||
| + | -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 162M Oct 31 09:48 results_m5_preserve_chain.bin | ||
| + | </pre> | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Github repo == | ||
| + | Project source code and files are collected in a SCEC public github repository. | ||
| + | *[https://github.com/SCECcode/scec-forecast-data.git Forecast Data Management Github Repo] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Forecast Data Descriptions == | ||
| + | *[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1QOaKwQUhTIaqOTYf3khTGYZ_uhQHKgKAM0RmWHCL7_Y/edit?usp=sharing CyberShake Data] | ||
| + | *[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UrStYKHjlSruJjIKJjVKAs5sUXH_Oebg-nchqgsYXtI/edit?usp=sharing UCERF3/ETAS/RSQSim Data] | ||
| + | *[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yhU547vfwdxAOjB1JFPWwySCgaqo6Gy21-0HFpUVYhU/edit?usp=sharing CSEP Data Description] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Forecast Data Listings == | ||
| + | ETAS Simulation Data: | ||
| + | *[http://opensha.usc.edu/ftp/kmilner/markdown/ucerf3-etas-results/2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces/index.html#comcat-data-comparisons ShakeMap Surface Comparisons] | ||
| + | *[http://opensha.usc.edu/ftp/kmilner/markdown/ucerf3-etas-results/ OpenSHA ETAS] | ||
| + | *[https://github.com/kevinmilner/ucerf3-etas-results/tree/master/2020-weekly-runs/2020_05_14-weekly-1986-present-full_td-kCOV1.5#table-of-contents Weekly Summary] | ||
| + | *[http://opensha.usc.edu/ftp/kmilner/markdown/ucerf3-etas-results/2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces/index.html#comcat-data-comparisons ShakeMap Summary] | ||
UCERF Project Data: | UCERF Project Data: | ||
| + | *[https://github.com/opensha/ OpenSHA Software] | ||
| + | *[https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/ UCERF3 Distribution] | ||
| + | *[http://www.wgcep.org/ucerf3 UCERF3 Website] | ||
CSEP Project Data: | CSEP Project Data: | ||
| + | *[https://cseptesting.org CSEP Project Website] | ||
| − | + | Ground Motion Simulation Project Data: | |
*[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/bbp/highf/2020-08-12/2020-08-12-rwg-bbp/index-202008120.html High-F Results] | *[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/bbp/highf/2020-08-12/2020-08-12-rwg-bbp/index-202008120.html High-F Results] | ||
| + | *[https://www.scec.org/research/ugms UGMS User Community] | ||
| + | *[https://data2.scec.org/ugms-mcerGM-tool_v18.4/ Engineer Oriented Data Distribution Site] | ||
| + | *[https://strike.scec.org/scecpedia/CyberShake_SmartMap GIS-based interface to Hazard Maps] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Event Response Data: | ||
| + | *[https://github.com/kevinmilner/event-reports/tree/master/2020_09_30-ci39641528-M4.93-4km_NE_of_Westmorland_CA Event Response Dataset] | ||
| + | *[https://www.scec.org/earthquakes/eventpage/generate Simulation on Demand] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Broadband Platform Data: | ||
| + | *[http://hypocenter.usc.edu/bbp/highf/2020-08-18/2020-08-18-edge-bbp/index-202008201.html Broadband Simulation Results] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Data Sharing Methods == | ||
| + | *[https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/workshop-on-earth-system-predictability-research-and-development?mc_cid=ee3aec7d1e&mc_eid=d681e220be#sectionWebFriendly Predictability Workshop Report] | ||
| + | *[https://www.usgs.gov/about/organization/science-support/office-science-quality-and-integrity/fundamental-science-practices USGS Fundamental Practices] | ||
| + | *[https://www.exascaleproject.org/event/reducingtechnicaldebt DOE ECP IDEAS Talks] | ||
| + | *[https://www.exascaleproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/HPCBP-slides-201104.pdf DOE Containers for Software Reproduciblity Webinar] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Related Projects == | ||
| + | Data Discovery CI: | ||
| + | *[https://bd2k.ini.usc.edu/tools/deriva/ Deriva Project] | ||
| + | *[https://eugeneyan.com/writing/data-discovery-platforms Research Community Data Discovery Platforms] | ||
| + | Reproducibility Projects: | ||
| + | *[https://wholetale.org/ WholeTale Project] | ||
| + | Trustworthy Computing Projects: | ||
| + | *[https://sciencenode.org/feature/Trustworthy%20forecasts.php Trustworthy Forecast Project] | ||
| + | Software Institute | ||
| + | *[https://molssi.org/ Software Institute] | ||
| + | Rapid Hazard Response Projects | ||
| + | *[https://www.iris.edu/hq/initiatives/rapid_response Rapid Response Projects] | ||
| + | Time Series Forecasting Service | ||
| + | *[https://medium.com/oreillymedia/the-future-of-time-series-forecasting-bd83c2aca9a8 Time Series Forecasting Services] | ||
| + | Controlled environment for exchanging and comparing optimization algorithms. | ||
| + | *[https://core.isrd.isi.edu/id/1/W1QR@2VC-3Z9S-4D36 Coredev Project Site] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Seismic Hazard User Base Estimates == | ||
| + | *[https://www.iris.edu/hq/initiatives/rapid_response Geohazard Projects] | ||
| + | *[https://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/introduction.htm Geohazard Research and Users Community Overview] | ||
| + | *We have these estimates of the user base for products that come out of CISM and CSEP. And how those numbers are documented. UCERF3-ETAS: 5-10 people currently look at raw simulation results. If we create a full operational system, it would potentially have broad user base, but it's currently in a research mode and only shared with interested and sophisticated users. | ||
| + | *UCERF3+ Inversions: The inversion results will be looked at by the core WGCEP team and shared with the scientific review panel, so probably 5-10 diving in and looking at detailed results, ~30 looking at summary plots. The New Zealand team would likely be interested in these capabilities as well, which could double the user base.RSQSim: Likely always a small group, <10 looking at RSQSim results and downstream products (ground motion simulations) | ||
| + | *With the RISE experiment gearing up and many new modelers looking to get their models tested, and assuming that UCERF3/4 goes under prospective testing I expect between 20-30 people will be interested in looking at individual forecast and evaluation results. An additional ~10 would be interested in looking at aggregate results, such as the cumulative tests (ie., types of results that could be a publication figure), but I don’t have a good handle on those numbers. Like with the UCERF3 results, the potential user base would probably increase depending on the availability of the data products and simulations results. | ||
| − | == NSF Site == | + | == NSF Solicitations Site == |
| − | *[https://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2021/nsf21505/nsf21505.htm Solicitation] | + | *[https://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2021/nsf21505/nsf21505.htm Mid-scale Research Infrastructure - 1 Solicitation] |
| + | *[https://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2021/nsf21537/nsf21537.htm Mid-scale Research Infrastructure - 2 Solicitation] | ||
| + | *[https://www.nsf.gov/geo/geo-ci/index.jsp NSF Geoscience opportunities] | ||
| + | *[https://www.nsf.gov/cise/harnessingdata/ HarnessingDataRevolution] | ||
| + | *[https://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2020/nsf20091/nsf20091.jsp NSF CISE DCL Big Ideas] | ||
== Related Entries == | == Related Entries == | ||
*[[CME_Project]] | *[[CME_Project]] | ||
Latest revision as of 00:32, 26 June 2021
Links to existing SCEC Forecast Data Distribution Methods:
Contents
- 1 ETAS Forecast Data Prototype Site
- 2 Related Work
- 3 Earthquake Prediction Projects
- 4 Existing ETAS Data Management Systems
- 5 Example Results Directory
- 6 Github repo
- 7 Forecast Data Descriptions
- 8 Forecast Data Listings
- 9 Data Sharing Methods
- 10 Related Projects
- 11 Seismic Hazard User Base Estimates
- 12 NSF Solicitations Site
- 13 Related Entries
ETAS Forecast Data Prototype Site
Related Work
Earthquake Prediction Projects
- AI Predictions
- AETA Earthquake Prediction Project
- Brendan Meade Ml Forecasting
- Meade Conference Paper
- Meade Conference Paper
Existing ETAS Data Management Systems
- UCERF3-TD ETAS Studies
- Github Repo with CSEP Evaluations of ETAS forecasts
- [/home/scec-06/kmilner/ucerf3/etas_sim/2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces/ Milner et al 2020 Ridgecrest ETAS Forecasts]
- [/home/scec-06/wsavran/working/ucerf3-ridgecrest Savran et al 2020 Ridgecrest ETAS Forecast]
Example Results Directory
-bash-4.2$ du -sh 2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces 36G 2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces -bash-4.2$ ls -alh 2019_09_04* 2019_09_04-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces: total 36G drwxr-sr-x 3 kmilner lc_pjm 4.0K Oct 31 10:10 . drwxr-sr-x 455 kmilner lc_pjm 40K Dec 7 10:20 .. drwxr-sr-x 2 kmilner lc_pjm 4.0K Oct 31 10:10 config_input_plots -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 77K Oct 31 10:06 config.json -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 2.5K Oct 31 10:10 etas_sim_mpj.slurm -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 0 Oct 31 10:10 etas_sim_mpj.slurm.e4413437 -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 66M Oct 31 09:55 etas_sim_mpj.slurm.o4413437 -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 70M Oct 31 09:53 opensha-ucerf3-all.jar -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 36G Oct 30 23:37 results_complete.bin -rw-r--r-- 1 kmilner lc_pjm 162M Oct 31 09:48 results_m5_preserve_chain.bin
Github repo
Project source code and files are collected in a SCEC public github repository.
Forecast Data Descriptions
Forecast Data Listings
ETAS Simulation Data:
UCERF Project Data:
CSEP Project Data:
Ground Motion Simulation Project Data:
- High-F Results
- UGMS User Community
- Engineer Oriented Data Distribution Site
- GIS-based interface to Hazard Maps
Event Response Data:
Broadband Platform Data:
Data Sharing Methods
- Predictability Workshop Report
- USGS Fundamental Practices
- DOE ECP IDEAS Talks
- DOE Containers for Software Reproduciblity Webinar
Related Projects
Data Discovery CI:
Reproducibility Projects:
Trustworthy Computing Projects:
Software Institute
Rapid Hazard Response Projects
Time Series Forecasting Service
Controlled environment for exchanging and comparing optimization algorithms.
Seismic Hazard User Base Estimates
- We have these estimates of the user base for products that come out of CISM and CSEP. And how those numbers are documented. UCERF3-ETAS: 5-10 people currently look at raw simulation results. If we create a full operational system, it would potentially have broad user base, but it's currently in a research mode and only shared with interested and sophisticated users.
- UCERF3+ Inversions: The inversion results will be looked at by the core WGCEP team and shared with the scientific review panel, so probably 5-10 diving in and looking at detailed results, ~30 looking at summary plots. The New Zealand team would likely be interested in these capabilities as well, which could double the user base.RSQSim: Likely always a small group, <10 looking at RSQSim results and downstream products (ground motion simulations)
- With the RISE experiment gearing up and many new modelers looking to get their models tested, and assuming that UCERF3/4 goes under prospective testing I expect between 20-30 people will be interested in looking at individual forecast and evaluation results. An additional ~10 would be interested in looking at aggregate results, such as the cumulative tests (ie., types of results that could be a publication figure), but I don’t have a good handle on those numbers. Like with the UCERF3 results, the potential user base would probably increase depending on the availability of the data products and simulations results.
NSF Solicitations Site
- Mid-scale Research Infrastructure - 1 Solicitation
- Mid-scale Research Infrastructure - 2 Solicitation
- NSF Geoscience opportunities
- HarnessingDataRevolution
- NSF CISE DCL Big Ideas
